The Masters: Steve Palmer's tips, betting preview, lowdown & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 7pm Thursday

The arrival of April should be welcomed joyously for many reasons – winter is behind us and summer ahead – and for golf punters in particular there is no greater time of the year. The Masters, with its tiny field, gaggle of no-hopers, reams of course form, and ludicrously generous each-way terms, provides the best value betting opportunity of the season.

Cross through the old-timers, delete the debutants, and enjoy solving a puzzle which is much easier than the US Open, Open Championship or US PGA. Many in the betting community will be lured by the most high-profile pair at Augusta – Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy – and they clearly deserve immense respect.

Woods is a 14-times Major champion who has conquered Augusta on four occasions, but the 43-year-old has teed up in only two of the last five Masters, and his last top-ten finish came in 2013. The modern Tiger is a deadly iron-player who should pepper enough pins to contend, but his putter has been ice-cold this season and it may let him down when the pressure is on.

Tension on the notoriously difficult Augusta greens may also stop McIlroy joining Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Woods as members of the ultra-elite Grand Slam club. Woods and McIlroy are carrying the weight of history on their shoulders – nobody else in the field is competing under anything close to their level of stress – and this handicap is not reflected in their short prices.

Palmer's top tip
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1

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Can Tiger close in on Jack? Will Rory finally complete the Slam? These are the main questions being asked as the Augusta showpiece approaches, but the 83rd Masters may be a landmark event for another, far less mooted, reason – Japan's first Major champion.

Hideki Matsuyama did not take long to advertise his credentials for the job. As a 19-year-old amateur making his Major debut in the 2011 Masters, teeing up on the US Tour for only the second time, he finished in 27th place. He was the only amateur to make the cut and his third-round 68 was bettered by only three players in the field that day.

Just over two years later came Matsuyama's first Major as a professional. He finished tenth in the US Open, then a month later he was sixth in the Open, a result all the more impressive when you consider the debutant was handed a one-shot slow-play penalty during round three. Already, in his early 20s, hotshot Hideki was looking a Major champion in waiting.

His 25 Major appearances have yielded 14 top-20 finishes, including second place in the 2017 US Open and top-fives in the US PGA in 2016 and 2017. And his body of work at Augusta stands up well to close inspection.

Prior to 2014, when he missed the Masters cut, and to 2018, when he battled to 19th spot, Matsuyama was badly struggling for fitness and form, wrist problems sending him to post lame. In between those two editions, though, he has strongly threatened a Green Jacket, compiling form figures of 5-7-11, and at the age of 27 this supreme ball-striker appears ready to make his Major breakthrough.

Accurate iron play is the key to success at the Cathedral of Pines – finding the right sections of the lightning-fast and heavily undulating greens is crucial – and Matsuyama excels in this department. He has never finished a US Tour season outside of the top ten in the strokes-gained-on-approach stats, and lies second for this term, with only Talor Gooch, a Masters non-runner, above him.

Matsuyama also appreciates the atmosphere of this Major more than any other. He often has an army of frenzied Japanese media following his every move, but decorum is demanded at Augusta National. Only competitors, caddies and rules officials are allowed inside the ropes.

Matsuyama has gone 20 events without missing a cut, highlights including fourth place in the Dell Technologies Championship, fourth in the Tour Championship, third in the Farmers Insurance Open and eighth at the Players, and he produced some great golf last time out to defeat Dustin Johnson in the WGC-Match Play, finishing second in his group after losing only one match.

He is a class act – a former world number one amateur and former world number two professional who has won two WGCs by a combined total of 12 shots – and Major glory is a natural progression. Most of the pre-tournament talk is about others, but the most famous golfing son from the Land of the Rising Sun can shine brightest in Georgia.

Next best
Jon Rahm 18-1

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Justin Thomas has found greens in regulation for fun at Augusta over the last three years, improving his results despite poor putting, and the 2017 US PGA victor has a great chance. Thomas, Woods and McIlroy should enter the weekend with hope, but the most appealing option from the top end of the market is Jon Rahm, who is surely a Masters champion in waiting.

This low-scoring Major suits Rahm more than any other, tailor-made for his aggressive, swashbuckling style, and form figures of 27-4 show how quickly he has fallen in love with the layout. His natural shot-shape may not be ideal – much is always made about how Augusta favours a draw – but only the 13th and 14th holes force Rahm to move away from his stock fade off the tee.

Rahm can hit a draw – he tightens his grip and powers through the ball – and he eagled the 13th in round four of his Augusta debut. He is six under par for eight spins along the hole, so will not be fretting. In fact, he has eagled three of the four par-fives in his two Masters trips – only the 15th is yet to be conquered – so expect further gains on the long holes. The 18th fits his eye perfectly. The 72nd hole to win your first Major is the ultimate test in a tight finish, but Rahm could hit his natural power-fade with confidence in those circumstances.

Last year Rahm opened with a 75, coming a cropper at the 16th, then outscored everyone over the final three rounds. Expect a faster start this time, given his excellent form since he beat Woods in the Ryder Cup singles. Rahm won the Hero World Challenge by four shots in December and has created chances this year, most notably when leading at Sawgrass going into the final round.

A crazy second shot into water at the 11th hole on the Sunday, followed by a similarly aggressive approach to the 17th when he was forced to go flag-hunting, meant 12th spot in the Players, but two bad shots should not detract from another positive performance. A pair of pars on those horror holes would have meant third place in a year when he has been finishing in the top ten more often than not.

Four solid rounds and sixth place in the Valspar the week after Sawgrass cleared Rahm's head, while repairing relations with his caddie, then he finished strongly in the WGC-Match Play, edged out by finalist Matt Kuchar in his group.

Other selections
Adam Scott 45-1
Bubba Watson 35-1

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Two former champions complete a four-pronged staking plan. Attending the Champions Dinner on the Tuesday of Masters week provides a timely reminder that this tournament is winnable and Adam Scott and Bubba Watson are being underrated in the betting. Scott, 2013 champ and 2011 runner-up, has taken advantage of new rules this year to dramatically improve his putting, while dual Augusta victor Watson is in his element on this track and could easily threaten a Masters hat-trick.

Scott has been putting almost exclusively with the flagstick in this year, rocketing to 14th in the US Tour strokes-gained-putting stats, and his tactic could yield even greater reward on the devilish dancefloors of Augusta. He can attack the middle of the flag on speedy short putts, employing a backstop, while the vast majority of the field continue with normality. Bryson DeChambeau is the only opponent likely to mirror this strategy.

Scott has been in great nick, finishing third in the US PGA and second at Torrey Pines, while three-time 2018 US Tour champ Watson has also arrived with plenty of self-belief. Watson, fifth at Augusta last year, loves the vibe of this event. He is often distracted by the galleries in regulation tournaments, but the well-mannered, mobile-free patrons of Augusta are heaven-sent for the moody left-hander.

Watson, who is equipped to obliterate the par-fives at Augusta, was close to winning the Valspar last month. He was hugely unlucky to lose his ball up a tree near the green at the par-five 14th, making a bogey rather than a regulation birdie, finishing two shots shy in fourth place. He signed off from the Match Play by beating Jordan Spieth and should be closer to the top of the Masters betting.

Staking plan
H Matsuyama
3pts each-way 33-1 BoyleSports
J Rahm
3pts each-way 18-1 BoyleSports
A Scott
2pts each-way 45-1 Hills
B Watson
2pts each-way 35-1 Hills

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Masters lowdown

Course Augusta National, Georgia
Prize money $11m ($1.98m to the winner)
Length 7,475 yards
Par 72
Field 87
Course records - 72 holes 270 Tiger Woods (1997), Jordan Spieth (2015) 18 holes 63 Nick Price (1986), Greg Norman (1996)

The cut The top 50 players (plus ties) qualify for the final 36 holes, along with anyone within ten shots of the lead

Course winners taking part Bernhard Langer (twice), Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam, Fred Couples, Tiger Woods (four times), Jose Maria Olazabal (twice), Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Phil Mickelson (three times), Zach Johnson, Trevor Immelman, Angel Cabrera, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed

When to bet By 1.20pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports at 7pm Thursday and Friday, live on Sky Sports and BBC2 on Saturday and Sunday

Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Texas Open 1 C Conners (175-1), 2 C Hoffman (50-1), 3 R Moore (40-1), T4 B Stuard (150-1), S-W Kim (66-1), 6 K Streelman (140-1).

Course overview Home of the Masters since 1934, Augusta is the only Major venue which is used every season. The yardage increased in the early 2000s in an attempt to combat technological advances. In 2001, the course measured 6,925 yards from the championship tees, but that had been extended to 7,270 yards by 2002, reaching 7,445 yards by 2006. Another 40 yards has been added to the fifth hole this year.

Generous fairways and token rough (known only as the 'second-cut' by Augusta officials) encourage aggressive driving, but the course demands accurate iron-shots to the fastest greens in golf. Avoiding three-putts on the dancefloors is hugely challenging given the pace and severity of the undulations. Sound course management is required to find the easiest spots from which to putt.

The two short par-fives on the back nine, the 13th and 15th, are classic risk-reward holes where the Masters is often won or lost. Eagles are achievable, but greenside water hazards are lurking to punish mishit approaches.

The story of last year A second-round 66 took Patrick Reed two shots clear at the halfway stage, then the Texan extended his lead to three shots on the Saturday. Rory McIlroy made a fast start to the final round to get within one shot of Reed, while Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth both made dramatic late charges, but the frontrunner heroically fended off all attacks, closed with two magnificent pars, and became a Major champion.

Weather forecast Storms earlier this week have softened the course. It should be cloudy and warm every day, but a storm threat for Sunday. Light breezes all week.

Type of player suited to the challenge Length off the tee is a significant advantage. Only two of the last 19 Masters have been won by short-hitters - Mike Weir in 2003 and Zach Johnson in 2007. Powerhouses are able to attack the small targets with lofted clubs in hand. Accurate approaches are the key to success.

Key attribute Accuracy

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