Steve Palmer's golf betting tips for the Masters third round

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the third round of the Masters at Augusta National, Georgia.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Saturday

Best bets

Patrick Reed to win twoball (2-5), Jon Rahm to win twoball (4-7), Jordan Spieth to win twoball (1-2)
3pts treble Hills

Story so far

Justin Rose rallied after a poor start to round two, covering his final six holes in three under par to retain his Masters lead, moving into the weekend at seven under and a shot clear.

Pre-tournament 80-1 chance Rose shortened to 7-2 favourite after opening with a magnificent 65 which left him four shots ahead, but he was three over par through seven holes on Friday to encourage the chasing pack.

The level-par 72 meant two-time Masters runner-up Rose has eased to 6-1 with 36 holes to play. Market leadership has been bestowed on the 2015 champion, Jordan Spieth, instead. Spieth, who enjoyed an enormous slice of fortune at the 15th hole in round one, dropped just one shot in a round-two 68 which left him only two behind.

Fresh from victory in the Texas Open last Sunday, Spieth is clearly feeling comfortable at his favourite course and is a general 4-1 for the Green Jacket. Justin Thomas, tied for sixth place a further shot off the pace, is next in the betting at 11-2. A gutbusting three-putt at the 18th hole sent Thomas to the clubhouse in despair, but his Friday work was generally excellent.

Sunshine and cloud is expected for Augusta on Saturday, with the potential for some late light showers as the leaders are on the last few holes. A moderate breeze is forecast. A short through-the-night thunderstorm could soften the course up for Sunday, which is set to be sunny with light to moderate breezes.

Leaderboard
-7 Justin Rose
-6 Will Zalatoris, Brian Harman
-5 Marc Leishman, Jordan Spieth
-4 Bernd Wiesberger, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Champ, Hideki Matsuyama

Selected others
-3 Xander Schauffele
-2 Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith
-1 Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland
Par Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm
+1 Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed
+2 Webb Simpson
+3 Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Paul Casey

Missed cut
+4 Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, Daniel Berger
+5 Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Lee Westwood
+6 Rory McIlroy
+8 Patrick Cantlay
+9 Jason Day

Best prices
4 J Spieth, 11-2 J Thomas, 6 J Rose, 12 W Zalatoris, 14 B Harman, T Finau, 16 X Schauffele, 18 H Matsuyama, 20 M Leishman, 28 B DeChambeau, S W Kim, 33 C Morikawa, 40 C Smith, 45 C Champ, 50 bar

Third-round preview

Plenty of the pre-tournament market principals are carrying packed bags and have no further business at Augusta National - Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Cantlay are among the departed - so punters have a significantly narrowed line-up to assess at the halfway stage.

The shortest odds are against the names of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas - and there appears a significant chance that the event could develop into a duel between these two great friends. Spieth has already got a Green Jacket and is three-one up over Thomas for Major wins, but it was only a couple of months ago that Thomas was being asked in pre-tournament media conferences whether his pal Jordan had any hope of emerging from his slump.

Thomas was kind and positive in his assessments of Spieth, but the fact Thomas was having to defend his mate amid questions hinting at a written-off career speaks volumes about how quickly and dramatically the 2015 Masters champion has resurrected his game.

If Spieth and Thomas are going down the stretch together on Sunday, many pundits would side with the course winner, but he started February as world number 92 and has not beaten an elite field since the 2017 Open Championship. None of the world's top ten played in the Texas Open which Spieth won last Sunday.

Spieth must be respected, but Thomas - the world number two and a prolific winner of elite events over the last five years - is much preferred. The much more consistent ball-striking of Thomas could prove decisive in a head to head against Spieth.

This tournament, though, is obviously a long way from Spieth versus Thomas at the moment. Brian Harman, who played some incredible golf at Sawgrass and Austin Country Club in his previous two events, has battled his way brilliantly to a pair of 69s. There is no reason why the gritty left-hander should not hang around on the leaderboard throughout.

Will Zalatoris is enjoying a wonderful Masters debut, looking cool and comfortable, showcasing his long-game class. Debutants have a terrible record in the Masters, but Zalatoris has quickly shown himself to be world-class. He had some Augusta experience from his college days and seems well equipped to win a Green Jacket one day. Sunday should not be ruled out.

Rose is tried and tested at Augusta and should also be lingering around the lead to the death. He is winless for almost 27 months, though, and the 40-year-old's lone Major win came in 2013, so maybe he will be the Masters nearly-man again.

Thomas (11-2) and Harman (14-1) are recommended as the best value outright options at this stage, with respect given to Spieth, Rose and Zalatoris.

The best option on a generally unappealing third-round twoball card is a treble of three short-price favourites. Patrick Reed, the 2018 Masters champion, can get the treble rolling by beating Jose Maria Olazabal in the 3.50pm (UK and Ireland) contest, then Jon Rahm, warming to his task after a hectic few days, can outscore Martin Laird in the 4.40pm match. The experience and Augusta comfort of Spieth makes him a strong favourite against Bernd Wiesberger at 7pm.

The Reed (2-5), Rahm (4-7) and Spieth (1-2) treble returns £33 to a £10 stake with Hills.

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