Steve Palmer's golf betting tips for the Masters final round

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the final round of the Masters at Augusta National, Georgia.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Sunday

Best bets

Will Zalatoris to win the Masters
2pts each-way 10-1 general

Jordan Spieth to win the Masters
1pt each-way 18-1 bet365

Story so far

The complexion of the Masters dramatically changed in round three as Hideki Matsuyama took charge of the event and more fancied runners drifted out of contention at Augusta National.

Matsuyama, a pre-tournament 45-1 chance, took full advantage of softer conditions after a thunderstorm delay midway through the round and destroyed the back-nine on his return. The Japanese ace was six under par for the final eight holes, reaching the clubhouse at 11 under and four shots clear of the field.

Matsuyama, a five-time PGA Tour champion who is winless since August, 2017, is a best-price 5-6 to convert his healthy advantage into victory. Some bookmakers have evened opened a 'without Matsuyama' market to generate extra interest.

Halfway pacesetter Justin Rose slipped into a tie for second place, alongside Xander Schauffele, Marc Leishman and Will Zalatoris. Jordan Spieth still has a sniff of the lead from six shots behind, but Justin Thomas mentally imploded after the thunder delay and dropped four shots, including a calamitous triple-bogey at the 13th, slipping ten shots off the pace.

Leaderboard
-11 Hideki Matsuyama
-7 Xander Schauffele, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris
-6 Corey Conners
-5 Jordan Spieth
-4 Brian Harman
-3 Tony Finau

Selected others
-1 Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas
Par Phil Mickelson, Webb Simpson, Jon Rahm
+1 Collin Morikawa
+2 Bryson DeChambeau
+3 Tyrrell Hatton

Missed cut
+4 Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, Daniel Berger
+5 Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Lee Westwood
+6 Rory McIlroy
+8 Patrick Cantlay
+9 Jason Day

Best prices
5-6 H Matsuyama, 5 X Schauffele, 9 J Rose, 10 W Zalatoris, 11 M Leishman, 18 J Spieth, 22 C Conners, 125 B Harman, T Finau, 250 J Thomas, 400 bar

Final-round preview

Japan will come to a standstill at 7.40pm UK and Ireland time today as Hideki Matsuyama bids to become a Major champion. Japan has never had a Major winner and Matsuyama has been their great hope for the best part of a decade. Is the Land of the Rising Sun finally going to see hotshot Hideki deliver on his abundant promise?

The pressure on Matsuyama's shoulders is immense. Since finishing tenth in the 2013 US Open, quickly following up with sixth spot in the Open Championship, the man from Ehime has shown he is good enough to contend for Major titles. He tied second in the 2017 US Open, but it is the US PGA in which he has come closest - the tension clearly getting to him as he finished fourth in 2016 and fifth the following year.

In the 2017 US PGA, Matsuyama led after ten holes of the final round, then carded five bogeys from there to the hut. Four years ago, it seemed he was not ready, so punters must decide whether at the age of 29 - and with a significant lead - he can get the job done.

The Tokyo Olympics is creeping closer and Matsuyama could go to that event wearing a Green Jacket. That is added motivation, but another layer of pressure. This Masters seems ultimately set to come down to how Matsuyama performs between the ears. Technically, he has always been on the radar for Augusta, where his typically excellent approach-play is so beneficial. The question mark as his victory drought has lengthened, is whether he is mentally strong enough to succeed there.

The reduced buzz outside the ropes has probably helped Matsuyama this week - he is usually followed by an army of Japanese photographers and media-men - and he may never get a better chance to join the Major league. Most of the big names are already no-hopers - some missing the cut and others fading away in round three - so it has opened up wonderfully for the leader.

Backing a player at odds-on who has not won for almost four years is an unappealing prospect, though, and the front nine at Augusta is difficult enough to unsettle the inevitably nervous frontrunner. A sunny final day is forecast, so the moisture Matsuyama enjoyed on Saturday should slowly but surely disappear. It would be no surprise to see him fail to advance his score through the front nine, then wobble at ten, 11 and 12 to invite others past.

Xander Schauffele has finished second eight times since his last victory, looking particularly edgy in contention in Phoenix in February, so the final pairing of the Masters provides a serious mental challenge for him.

Marc Leishman and Justin Rose, who both failed to break 70 in round three, may fail to deliver the early birdies needed to apply heat to Matsuyama from the penultimate Sunday group.

The most interesting twoballs with regards to outright market value are the third and fourth from last. Will Zalatoris and Corey Conners are two greens-in-regulation machines who could help each other go low from the 7.20pm launchpad, while Jordan Spieth and Brian Harman are two short-game masters who could conjure plenty of magic from 7.10pm.

Zalatoris has been nothing short of awesome on his Masters debut. He had some experience of Augusta from his college days and stepped into the Cathedral of Pines this week with a remarkable poise and swagger. Fuzzy Zoeller is the last debutant to win the Masters - in 1979 - and maybe another Mr Z is ready to buck the trend.

Zalatoris, dominant on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and quickly forcing his way into the world's top 50 with a fast start on the PGA Tour this year, has clearly got all the tools to become a Major champion. In theory, he should be getting more comfortable at Augusta every day, and a Sunday pairing with mild-mannered Canadian Conners seems ideal to keep Zalatoris in his comfort zone.

Harman, an ante-post each-way 100-1 Racing Post Sport recommendation, can hopefully deliver some place money from starting Sunday in eighth place. His partner Spieth, though, is probably full of self-belief that he can overcome a six-shot deficit on Matsuyama.

Augusta and Spieth have always been a match made in heaven - and the 2015 champion will be geared up for an attacking final round. Given Spieth is only two shots off second place, he is well placed to pounce on any sign of frailty from Matsuyama.

Zalatoris and Spieth are the two players punters getting involved at this stage are advised to chance. Harman's agonising three-putt at the 17th in round three probably put paid to his title challenge.

Punters must decide whether to play Zalatoris and Spieth in the with or without Matsuyama market. That decision depends on the level of ambition of each individual, but the with market arguably offers better value. Scoring can be so volatile on this track and Matsuyama has always been prone to missing tiddlers.

The final-round twoballs card appears a value-free zone, so two each-way outright investments are recommended instead.

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