Steve Palmer's Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions & free golf betting tips plus bet £10 and get a £30 free bet with Kwiff

When to bet on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am

By 4.30pm on Thursday

It's also worth noting that Kwiff are offering a £30 free bet when new customers bet £10 on golf 

Where can I watch the Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions

Max Homa
4pts each-way 18-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Matthew Fitzpatrick
3pts each-way 33-1 general

New customers can get a £30 free bet when they bet on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with Kwiff

Steve Palmer's Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has shrunk from 156 players to just 80, from three courses to just two and the cut has disappeared, but the prize money has more than doubled. Life as an elite PGA Tour golfer has become even more wonderful in the age of Signature events.

The world's top two players – Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy – do not usually have this tournament on their schedule but a $20 million prize fund has attracted them. That relative lack of course experience is enough to make the short odds about the favourites unappealing.

Scheffler, who is making his Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut, missed the cut in the 2019 US Open at the course. McIlroy missed the cut in the 2010 US Open there, then missed the cut in his only previous Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2018). The Northern Irishman was ninth in the 2019 US Open, but this week's assignment does not play to the strengths of McIlroy or Scheffler.

Viktor Hovland is a bigger price and more difficult to overlook. He won the 2018 US Amateur, which was staged over Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, absolutely destroying some opponents that week. His Pebble Beach record is excellent.

Hovland has been inactive since a lacklustre 22nd-place effort at The Sentry, though, and he made a curious decision to switch coaches to Grant Waite at the end of last year. It is not unreasonable to assume the time off has featured discussions with LIV representatives, so the Norwegian may not be in a perfect place mentally for this mission.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Max Homa 18-1

The PGA Tour has been a minefield for punters this season, with Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap and Matthieu Pavon conjuring shock successes at massive prices, but Max Homa can restore some order in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Homa was slow from the starting stalls in the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He had to deal with an extremely soggy Torrey Pines South on the Wednesday, battling to a 70, then was not sharp enough to take advantage of the easier North Course the following day as another 70 left the popular Californian playing catch-up in his home state.

Homa closed with rounds of 71 and 69 – enough to make significant progress up the leaderboard on the difficult South – sharing 13th place in what was only his second tournament of the year. He should come on nicely for that run and will be relishing another opportunity in his beloved Golden State this week.

Four of Homa's six PGA Tour victories have come in California – he thrives on the poa annua greens which so many players detest – and the 33-year-old possesses all the tools to do plenty of damage at Pebble Beach.

The Burbank-born swinger finished 29th in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2015 when he was ranked 278th in the world. He was tenth in 2019 when ranked 718th, 14th in 2020 when ranked 95th, then seventh in 2021 when ranked 96th. Homa has not teed up in the event since, so has never tackled the Pro-Am as a member of the elite.

The University of California graduate has won five PGA Tour titles since he last teed up at Pebble Beach. He has played in a Ryder Cup, he has won a DP World Tour event and starts this week as a world number seven with no weaknesses.

Expect Homa to pepper pins all week, putt more consistently than anyone else, and upstage those above him in the outright betting.

Next best bet

Matthew Fitzpatrick 33-1

Tidy golf from tee to green, allied to a razor-sharp short-game, is the formula for Pebble Beach success – and Matthew Fitzpatrick is made for this assignment. The Englishman finished 12th in the 2019 US Open at Pebble and was sixth in the 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Last year's Pro-Am missed cut can be ignored, as Fitzpatrick was carrying a neck injury and had no swing speed. He slowly but surely got himself back to fitness, then won the RBC Heritage in April – a Signature event by the coast. He faces another mega-bucks gathering by the sea this week.

Fitzpatrick won another coastal event in the Dunhill Links Championship in October, then was fourth in the Hero World Challenge in The Bahamas in December. He comes alive with some sea breeze in his nostrils.

The 29-year-old opened up this season with 14th place in The Sentry, then missed the cut in the Sony Open, but there were excuses for that Waialae flop. It was his course debut at a well-established Tour venue, and his clubs got lost in transit from The Sentry to the Sony, hampering preparation. Expect a huge improvement at Pebble.

Course guide for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am

• Course Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, Pebble Beach, California
• Prize money $20m ($3.6m to the winner)
• Lengths Pebble Beach 6,972 yards; Spyglass Hill 7,041 yards
• Par Both 72
• Field 80 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Viktor Hovland (4), Xander Schauffele (5), Patrick Cantlay (6)
• Course records - 72 holes 265 Brandt Snedeker (2015) 18 holes Pebble Beach: 62 Tom Kite (1983), David Duval (1997), Patrick Cantlay (2021), Matthias Schwab (2022) Monterey 60 Sung Kang (2016) Spyglass Hill: 62 Phil Mickelson (2005), Luke Donald (2006)
• Course winners taking part Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland (2018 US Amateur), Nick Taylor, Tom Hoge, Justin Rose
• When to bet By 4.30pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday
• Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Farmers Insurance Open 1 M Pavon (125-1), 2 N Hojgaard (50-1), T3 N Lashley (350-1), J Knapp (300-1), S Jaeger (70-1), T6 K Yu (125-1), B Hossler (66-1), T Finau (25-1), T9 P Rodgers (70-1), X Schauffele (10-1), L Aberg (20-1), T Pendrith (100-1)
• Course type Links/parkland
• Course overview This pro-am used to be played over three different courses, with 36 holes at Pebble Beach and 18 apiece at Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill, with the cut after 54 holes. The event has been promoted to Signature status this year, though, meaning only two courses will be used. The field has shrunk from 156 to just 80. The players will have 18 holes at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill over the first two days, then the final 36 holes will be at Pebble Beach, with no cut. Pebble Beach hosted the 2010 and 2019 US Opens, as well as the 1999 and 2018 US Amateur. Small greens are a feature of Pebble Beach. Spyglass has traditionally been the most difficult venue in the Pro-Am. The greens are Poa annua
• The story of last year Justin Rose cruised to a three-shot victory in a weather-delayed, Monday-finish tournament
• Weather forecast Heavy pre-tournament rain looks set to soften the courses, with further light rain expected during the event. Relatively calm, with the strongest of the wind expected on Friday afternoon. A cool week with temperatures peaking at 13C
• Type of player suited to the challenge Accurate approach-play and a sharp putting has been the key to Pebble Beach Pro-Am success over the last decade
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Pebble Beach Pro-Am key stat

Fourteen of the last 17 winners were in the top ten for greens in regulation

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