Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

When to bet on the DP World Tour Championship

By 5am on Thursday

It’s also worth noting that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet that you can grab here ahead of the event.

Where can I watch the DP World Tour Championship

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 7am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship predictions

Nicolai Hojgaard
3pts each-way 25-1 bet365

Min Woo Lee
3pts each-way 16-1 general

Adrian Meronk
2.5pts each-way 28-1 general

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Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship preview

The DP World Tour Championship market is being dominated by Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm, but the short prices about all three can be left alone.

McIlroy has a superb course record – two victories, eight top-fives and never outside the top 20 – but the Race to Dubai title is already in the bag for this season and the Northern Irishman does not appear switched on for this event. He is experimenting with a new driver.

McIlroy and Hovland have not competed since the Ryder Cup, so have plenty of rust to shed. Rahm, who finished ninth in the Spanish Open a month ago and is the most prolific champion in Earth Course history, is the most appealing of the front three, but motivation for the Spaniard is not obvious, either.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Nicolai Hojgaard 25-1

Max Homa was superb in the Nedbank Challenge last week – the American reaching 19 under par at Gary Player Country Club – but Nicolai Hojgaard also produced some great golf to finish runner-up. The Dane was bogey-free on Sunday and seven under par for the weekend.

Hojgaard had been quiet since his Ryder Cup debut, but had not been teeing up on favourable courses. The 22-year-old powerhouse was in full flow again last week and produced one of the best putting performances of his career.

Putting is a traditional weakness for Hojgaard, but he was ultra-comfortable with his stroke last week and should be a huge DP World Tour Championship contender if he carries that flat-stick form to the Earth Course.

Hojgaard has played in this tournament once before – in 2021 when ranked 132nd in the world – and he finished fourth. The wide fairways and large greens allow this gung-ho firebrand to open his shoulders and make merry.

Hojgaard won the Ras al Khaimah Championship not far from Dubai last year and he started this year impressing in the region, top-scoring in the Hero Cup in Abu Dhabi. With a PGA Tour card already assured for next season, Nicolai can approach the DPWT season finale pressure-free, but hungry for his first victory of the year.

Next best bet

Min Woo Lee 16-1

Two of the most powerful drivers on the circuit could end up battling for this title on Sunday. There are only four players on the DP World Tour who average further off the tee than Nicolai Hojgaard and Min Woo Lee – two elite operators who can soon challenge for Major titles.

Lee was second in the Abu Dhabi Championship in this region in January, then sixth in the Players Championship at Sawgrass and fifth in the US Open. More recently, he was seventh in the Irish Open, victorious with a 30-under-par total in an Asian Tour event (Macao Open), then sixth in the Zozo Championship last time out.

This week's assignment seems ideal. Lee was 16th on his DP World Tour Championship debut in 2021, despite arriving exhausted, having entered the final seven DPWT events of that season. He was 12th last year and further improvement can be expected this week.

Both Nicolai Hojgaard and Lee are seeking their third DPWT title. With the top three in the betting taking up so much of the market, Hojgaard and Lee represent terrific each-way value.

Other selection

Adrian Meronk 28-1

A three-pronged each-way attack can be completed with Adrian Meronk, who lies third in the Race to Dubai standings. This is a four-time DPWT champion who is still playing with a chip on his shoulder, having been overlooked for the European Ryder Cup side.

Meronk won the Andalucia Masters at the end of last month, then was 15th in the Nedbank Challenge last week. The Pole tops the Total Driving statistic on the DPWT – hitting his ball straight as well as long off the tee – and that attribute should lay a strong foundation for Earth Course success.

Meronk was 32nd on his debut in 2021, then seventh last year, carding a Saturday 65 to show he had got a handle on the layout. He was fourth in the Dubai Desert Classic last year, third in the Qatar Masters last year and fourth in the Ras al Khaimah Championship this year. This proven desert rat bases himself in Dubai during the winter, so is backed up by a strong support network this week.

Course guide for the DP World Tour Championship

• Course Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
• Prize money $10m ($3m to the winner)
• Length 7,675 yards
• Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 50 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (2), Jon Rahm (3), Viktor Hovland (4), Matt Fitzpatrick (8), Tom Kim (11)

• Course records - 72 holes 263 Henrik Stenson (2013) 18 holes 62 Justin Rose (2012)
• Course winners taking part Rory McIlroy (twice), Matt Fitzpatrick (twice), Jon Rahm (three times)
• When to bet By 4.30am on Thursday
  

• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 7am on Thursday
  
• Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
  
• Last week – Nedbank Challenge 1 M Homa (8-1), 2 N Hojgaard (28-1), 3 T Olesen (30-1), 4 J Thomas (14-1), 5 D Bradbury (125-1), T6 H Du Plessis (60-1), R Hojgaard (28-1), S Soderberg (80-1)
  
• Course type Desert
  
• Course overview The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course was specifically built to be the venue for the European Tour's season finale. The Volvo Masters at Valderrama traditionally signalled the end of the European Tour campaign, but in 2009 the Race to Dubai started and the Jumeirah Golf Estates became home for the curtain-closer. The fairways are wide and there is little in the way of tree trouble. The 620-yard par-five 18th has a stream which splits the fairway in two, so much late drama can occur. The greens are large, undulating and quick, with plenty of run-off areas. The winning score has been between 14 and 25 under par in all 14 previous editions
  
• Story of last year Jon Rahm completed a hat-trick of Earth Course triumphs, defeating Tyrrell Hatton and Alex Noren by two shots
  
• Weather forecast Sunny and warm for the most part, temperatures ranging from 22C to 33C. Breezes set to peak at 16 mph on Thursday morning, before fading away
  
• Type of player suited to the challenge This long layout with wide fairways typically plays into the hands of the big-hitters
  
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship key stat

The last 11 winners of this event are all Major champions

Grab a £40 Paddy Power free bet on the 2023 DP World Tour Championship

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet to place on all of the golf action at the event.

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Paddy Power golf DP World Tour Championship betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new golf betting signup offer before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the DP World Tour Championship free bets and what's expected of you as a new customer.

• New UK & ROI customers only
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