Gaelic Football League predictions and GAA betting tips: Scoring could be scarce as Derry welcome Dublin

Best bets

Under 32.5 points in Derry v Dublin
5pts 10-11 Paddy Power

Roscommon
2pts 3-1 general

Over 1.5 Kerry goals
2pts 7-4 Boylesports 

Galway -2
3pts 11-10 Paddy Power, Betfair

Allianz Football League predictions

Derry v Dublin 

RTE, 5pm Saturday

Derry and Dublin met at an identical stage in last year's league, the only difference being that it was in Division 2, and the hosts staged a late smash-and-grab raid to secure a 1-11 to 0-13 success having been five behind at the break. 

The teams went on to renew rivalry in the league decider when Dublin went goal crazy and netted four times in a seven-point win. Despite those four goals, the final scoreline of 4-6 to 0-11 was still nicely below the 32.5 total points spread that has been set for Saturday evening's showdown. 

In round five last year, there were a total of 27 points scored so the average total points scored in their two meetings in 2023 was 28.

This year's league form makes an even more compelling case for going under that 32.5 total points line. Dublin's three games in Croke Park have produced an average of 38 points per match, but it is worth pointing out that the sole occasion they have played away from base, their clash with Mayo produced only 29 . 

The surface and size of Croke Park is conducive for fast, free-flowing football where goal chances arrive every other minute and points can be kicked from 30 or 40 metres out with ease. It won’t be so easy up in Derry. 

It has been a rotten couple of days weather wise in Ireland with snow and torrential rain and Celtic Park is sure to be heavy for the clash of the two best sides in the top division this year. 

Derry have had two home outings, beating Tyrone by six points and Monaghan by 13. There were 39 points scored in the second of those but the Farney army were really poor that night. It was over early. 

Derry's tussle with Tyrone is a better form guide and that game produced only 24 points. 

Given the likely conditions at Celtic Park and the prospects of a soggy pitch, surely scores are going to be much harder to come by and scoring zones will be brought much closer to goal by both managers. 

There hasn't been much between these sides in recent times and bookmakers are finding it hard to split the two. You could make cases for either, and Dublin appear slight favourites if pushed, but this could develop into a war of attrition where 0-12 or 0-13 might be good enough to secure maximum points. 

Mayo v Roscommon

TG4, 7.30pm Saturday

The betting for the crunch Connacht clash between Mayo and Roscommon looks all wrong and it is hard to resist having a little tipple on the visitors at 3-1. 

For all that Mayo have been reasonably impressive in the league, only a point separates the  sides in the table, and Kevin McStay's men have lost their last two games. They were particularly poor in the second half of their latest loss against Tyrone and come into the game under a bit of a cloud. 

Roscommon, in contrast, arrive following of a confidence-restoring success over Monaghan where they were impressive and never looked in any danger. They scored 1-16 and won by 12. 

Roscommon beat Mayo in last year's Connacht championship and there is never much between the sides. 

Enda Smith looked back to his best in the win over Monaghan, scoring three glorious points from play, and Roscommon were moving the ball with purpose. Daire Cregg and Diarmuid Murtagh impressed too, getting nine points between them, and it's hard to envisage anything other than a humdinger at MacHale Park. 

Roscommon are the play at 3-1. On the evidence of the sides' most recent displays, they can edge a step further away from relegation with another victory.

Kerry v Tyrone

TG4, 1.15pm Sunday

Tyrone produced a storming second-half display to take down Mayo in round four but the long trip south to face Kerry could prove a rude awakening. 

Kerry are a wounded animal after suffering a ten-point defeat at the hands of Dublin last weekend and Jack O'Connor will expect a big reaction. He will probably get one too, and given that the Kingdom have scored six goals in their first four games, odds of 7-4 about them netting at least twice for the third time seem generous.

Monaghan v Galway

TG4, 3.15pm Sunday

A shock opening night success over Dublin at Croke Park looks as though it is going to be a false dawn for Monaghan as they remained rooted to the bottom of the Division 1 table with a -33 points difference. Last week's 12-point loss to Roscommon was extremely worrying. 

Galway haven't been great either but they have beaten Tyrone away and were decent in certain periods of last week's loss to table-toppers Derry. They are gradually getting some key players back and can be expected to make a big push over the final few rounds. They remain All-Ireland contenders, whereas Monaghan most certainly aren't. 

Get on Galway to take care of a two-point handicap at a shade of odds-against. 

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