Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

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Under 10.5 Asian total corners in Motherwell v St Mirren
1pt 1.925 bet365

Graham Alexander’s first game as Motherwell manager was at St Mirren. It was a 1-1 draw. There were 13 corners. His tenth game was also at St Mirren. It was a 0-0 draw. There were 14 corners.

Today in Alexander’s 14th Scottish Premiership game Motherwell play at home to St Mirren. We know there could be more than 10.5 corners, but it is not certain there will be, and the chance that there will not may have been underestimated by bet365.

Back under 10.5 Asian total corners at decimal odds of 1.925, equivalent to fractional odds of 37-40.

Those imply a 52 per cent chance of a payout. This season in the Scottish Premiership there have been fewer than 10.5 corners in 115 games out of 198, or 58 per cent.

The chance of under 10.5 corners at Fir Park today is lower than 58 per cent, but it may not be quite as low as 52 per cent.

There have been more than 10.5 corners in each of St Mirren’s last six games, four at home and two away. Across the whole season in their away games there have been more than 10.5 corners ten times out of 16.

Across the season in Motherwell games there have been high corners totals in games against opponents other than St Mirren. For example, 18 against Hamilton, 16 against Hibernian, 15 against Dundee United and Ross County.

None of those stats, from the recent or not so recent past, encourages the idea that there could be fewer than 10.5 corners when Motherwell and St Mirren play today. But those trends will not continue indefinitely. Sooner or later they will change.

We do not know when that process will start. There is no particular reason why it should start today. But we can be fairly sure it will start at some time, so there is a possibility it will begin today. And that possibility may be better than the odds acknowledge.

Thought for the week

Norwich beat Huddersfield 7-0 in the EFL Championship on Tuesday. Huddersfield manager Carlos Corberan was apologetic. “I have to analyse why this happened,” he said. “The consequences have to come directly to me. I decided who played, the style we were trying to play, so I have to be the one to face those questions.”

Big scores grab our attention. They are analysed more intensely than others, and not only by the managers who are on the receiving end of them. Really, though, they are just weird events that happen every once in a while. Fortunately for teams who concede a large number of goals, the next game is usually different.

Huddersfield have played 4,330 league games. Only in ten have they conceded seven goals or more. It has been roughly a once-a-decade event.

There was no sign of this one coming. Huddersfield were unbeaten in their previous five games and had conceded only three goals.

After conceding seven or more goals in the past, what happened in Huddersfield’s next game? Once they conceded three goals, once they conceded two goals, twice they conceded one goal, and six times they kept a clean sheet.

Today in a relegation clash at home to Rotherham, one goal against is probably more likely than none – but none is probably more likely than two, which in turn is more likely than three, and so on. A heavy defeat nearly always is an aberration. It can be followed by another – but usually it is not.

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