Turkey v Wales predictions: Page's boys face tough outing in Baku

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Turkey v Wales in Group A on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BBC One & S4C, 5pm Wednesday

Best bets

Turkey
2pts 7-5 Betfair, Betfred, Betway

Over 3.5 cards
2pts 10-11bet365

Don't be duped by what we saw from Turkey in Rome – the Welsh don't score more than the odd goal and are up against it here.

Team news

Turkey
Senol Gunes is expected to tweak his midfield with Kaan Ayhan and Irfan Kahveci poised to start.

Wales
Ethan Ampadu may well replace Joe Morrell. Head coach Rob Page has a decision to make over his formation.

Match preview

Nicely defrosted having frozen on the opening night, take Turkey to baste the Welsh in a Baku oven and get their Group A qualification quest back on track.

Senol Gunes' men didn't just fluff their lines against the Italians last Friday - they were completely struck dumb, rabbits in the headlights as Roberto Mancini's men toyed with them at their leisure.

They lost 3-0, and had it been six there would have been no complaints. But with that out of their system and the mood in the camp more relaxed than it was going into that match - according to reports - trust them to show what they are really about against the Welsh.

And if they do what they are capable of, that should be too much for Rob Page's side, who were no better against the Swiss than the Turks were against the Italians. The difference, of course, is that Switzerland weren't slick enough to punish them.

Indeed, the Turks weren't alone in not turning up for their Euros curtain-raiser. Gareth Bale did likewise and while Gunes has other aces to fall back on, Page doesn't.

The Wales manager is a rookie at this level and his decision to system-tweak ahead of Saturday's match looked a poor call as they were largely outplayed.

But Bale's no-show can't be pinned on Page, although anyone who has seen the one-time most expensive player in world football go through the motions on loan at Tottenham at times this season, would certainly have feared that was possible.

Both Page and Gunes have big calls to make tactically.

Does Page, for example, revert to the 3-4-3 system he had been preferring? Does Ethan Ampadu come in to stiffen up a midfield bypassed by the Swiss? Surely he must persist with goal hero Kieffer Moore and it's hard to see the Bale-Ramsey-James triumvirate being separated just yet.

But Wales probably need to win this because it's hard to fancy them in Rome against Italy, with even if up against the Azzurri's reserves, who they may well be facing should Mancini's men chalk up a second win later in the evening.

They will be happy playing on the counter in temperatures which are forecast to be around 30 degrees at kick off.

And the Turks will be on the front foot. There were just signs at the back end of their Italian lesson, when the hosts were in freestyle mode, that they could string passes together. Gunes needs to rearrange his midfield to get more players on the ball and we know he has them because this is a team who have beaten France and Holland in recent times.

The likely heat and the size of the prize should make punters think unders rather than overs when it comes to goals, although that has been factored into the prices.

And given the magnitude of the stakes, it also seems likely that the action will get heated at some point. The Turks had two players booked against Italy, Wales one against the Swiss, but the 10-11 that there are more than three cards stands out in this clash. Arbiter Dias has produced four or more cards in 21 of 31 games refereed this term.

Key stat

In 14 matches since lockdown, Wales have only once scored more than a single goal in a game.

Inside info

Turkey

Penalty taker Burak Yilmaz
Free-kick wizard Hakan Calhanoglu
Set-piece aerial threat Caglar Soyuncu
Card magnet Kaan Ayhan

Wales

Penalty taker Gareth Bale
Free-kick wizardGareth Bale, Harry Wilson
Set-piece aerial threatKieffer Moore
Card magnetJoe Allen

Lowdown

Venue Olympic Stadium, Baku
Fans allowed 11,000
Time Zone BST +3 hours
Weather Sunny, 30C
FIFA rankings Turkey (29), Wales (17)

Bet builder

Over 4 Turkey corners
The Turks look set to dominate the ball and the Welsh gave up 12 corners against Switzerland.

Under 1.5 Wales offsides
The Turks will defend quite low, flags are going up less and Wales had none against Switzerland.

Over 3 cards
There will be tension in the air in a game neither side can afford to lose.

The treble pays 11-2 with bet365

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