Italy v England predictions from Mark Langdon: Emerson lively outsider to score

It's often said that very few punters back the draw, which may explain why it is the biggest priced of all three 90-minute outcomes for the Euro 2020 final between England and Italy at Wembley even though it looks as likely as any other result.

There's little between the teams once home advantage is factored in and the tension is bound to be high which usually means a low-scoring encounter for big finals.

Chuck in the fact that 40 per cent of European Championship knockout ties prior to this tournament went to extra-time and the draw starts to become tempting. Add in that half of the 14 knockout matches at Euro 2020 have gone beyond normal time and it probably suggests 9-4 about the draw is the way to go.

A low goals-expectancy brings the draw into play but it also does at least mean there are many eye-catching prices for those who like to play in the first or anytime scorer markets.

Harry Kane won't often go off at 9-2 to bag first in a match where his team are favourites, although from an English point of view backing Harry Maguire each-way at 33-1 looks like much more fun

Only Kane and Raheem Sterling have had more attempts and more shots on target than Maguire, who racked up a healthy three against Denmark on Wednesday. He also scored against Ukraine and set-pieces are a major part of Gareth Southgate's attacking plan.

However, at more than double that price, 80-1 Italian Emerson Palmieri is worth a dart to notch first and anytime at 40-1.

Roberto Mancini's gameplan is well documented.

Italy's right-back stays at home to form a back defensive three with Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini, while the left-back is encouraged forward to add width to the side as winger Lorenzo Insigne cuts in on to his favoured right foot.

It's why Leonardo Spinazzola was able to become one of the players of the tournament, sprinting down the left, and only the front three of Insigne, Federico Chiesa and Ciro Immobile managed more attempts than the now injured full-back.

Emerson isn't as good as Spinazzola but three attempts in just under 200 minutes is a decent effort, while the huge outsider hit the bar against Spain and, let's face it, if an English person is going to cheer an Italian goal on Sunday, at least let it be at a worthwhile price.

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