History suggests England will hold their nerve in Euro 2020 final

I was there last time. My dad got tickets for the 1966 World Cup final between England and West Germany. I was six years old. How lucky I was.

What was the mood in the country then?

Before the tournament my mum and dad entered me in a fancy dress competition at our village fete. I wore a white T-shirt, blue shorts, white ankle socks and black plimsolls. I held a placard my dad had written saying: “England for the World Cup.” Perhaps the judges felt this was far-fetched. More likely they realised I was not really in fancy dress. Whatever the reason, I did not win.

England did.

What was the atmosphere like at Wembley?

Most of what I know about that day I feel I picked up afterwards from reading books and watching documentaries. The one thing I remember from the time is my utter conviction that England would win. I was prepared for trials and tribulations. I had read about these in comics. Heroes always came through. In real life England were my heroes and I was sure that in the end they would win. Only as I grew older did I realise how foolish this was.

Thirty years later England hosted Euro 96. I bought tickets for every match at Wembley. To some I took my dad. They were the last matches he would see. To every match I took my son, who was then seven. I wanted to give him what my dad had given me, but I could not. England lost on penalties in the semi-final. I felt I had let my son down.

He will watch on television as England play Italy in the Euro 2020 final. His son, who is two, might be in bed by then. It goes on, from generation to generation. Will it end on Sunday? If not now, when?

England out to use home advantage

England will play their second major final where they played the first: in front of their own fans at Wembley. How, generally, have hosts fared in finals?

At Euro 2016 France lost to Portugal. Twelve years earlier at Euro 2004 Portugal lost to Greece. So the last two hosts to reach a European Championship final were beaten.

But do not despair yet, England hopefuls. Go back further, gather a larger sample, and you will find that overall hosts have won more often than they lost.

France won in 1984, Italy won in 1968, Spain won in 1964.

Eight World Cup hosts have reached the final. Six won. They were France in 1998, Argentina in 1978, West Germany in 1974, England of course in 1966, Italy in 1934 and Uruguay in 1930.

The losers were Sweden in 1958 and Brazil in 1950. Technically the last game of the 1950 World Cup was not a final, but it decided who would get the trophy so we might as well treat it as one. Everyone else does.

Altogether 13 previous hosts of a World Cup or European Championship reached the final and nine won. Even 13 games is not a huge sample, though in it there are still some differences between hosts and more between their opponents. Do not read too much into ratios of games and wins. Be content with the conclusion that in some way playing at home seems to help.

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