England v Denmark predictions: Three Lions on course to reach Euro final

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for England v Denmark in the semi-finals on Wednesday.

Where to watch

ITV, 8pm Wednesday

Best bet

England
2pts 8-11 general

England failed to get over the line when they were favourites against Croatia in the 2018 World Cup semi-final but they have improved over the last three years and should have a little too much quality for Denmark at Wembley.

Team news

England
Reports say Bukayo Saka, who missed the win over Ukraine, will replace Jadon Sancho in the only change from England's quarter-final win.

Denmark
No fresh injuries are reported so Christian Eriksen is the only definite absentee.

Match preview

England are back at Wembley for their semi-final against Denmark and their fervent home fans can roar the Three Lions on to their first European Championship final.

The weakening of home advantage has been a key aspect of Covid-19's impact on football but England supporters have been allowed to turn out in increasing numbers over the last few weeks and the estimated 60,000 crowd at the semi-final – the vast majority of them supporting the home side – could have a significant influence on the outcome.

Denmark were 1-0 winners on a Nations League trip to Wembley in October 2020, courtesy of Christian Eriksen's 35th-minute penalty, but there were no fans in the stadium and England's chances were minimised by a couple of poor challenges from Harry Maguire, who lasted just 31 minutes before receiving his second yellow card of the night.

Maguire was going through a tough period at the time but his fortunes have been transformed and, after a injury-hit start to Euro 2020, he stands out as the key man in the meanest defence in the competition.

England are the first team in European Championship history to have kept five consecutive clean sheets and their overall sequence of seven successive shutouts is a new Three Lions record.

Confidence is flowing after the 4-0 success over Ukraine but Gareth Southgate needs to keep his players focused because Denmark could pose their toughest test of the tournament.

The Danes also became record breakers with their 4-0 success over Wales, becoming the first team in Euros history to score four goals or more in back-to-back games, and they played with a lot of maturity to triumph 2-1 over the Czech Republic in Saturday's quarter-final in Baku.

They are gaining a reputation as fast starters and their fifth-minute goal against the Czechs - the eighth time in ten games that they have broken the deadlock - gave them a half-time advantage for the fourth successive match.

England need to be mindful of the threat because if they fall behind they will be in unknown territory at this tournament and Southgate will need to come up with answers, either tactically or from the bench.

He was found wanting in both aspects during the 0-0 draw with Scotland, which stands out as the worst England performance of the tournament, but was far more successful against Germany when he gave Jack Grealish ample time to perform a match-winning role.

Southgate would rather be successful with Plan A and his counter-attacking tactics could be effective against the Danes, who are usually happy to commit men forward and play with an element of risk.

Denmark can overwhelm weaker opposition with their high-tempo, attacking style but they were exposed in the group stage by a more clinical Belgian team and could suffer a similar fate against England, who have greater quality in the areas that matter.

Key stat

England have won ten of their last 11 matches.

Inside info

England

Penalty taker Harry Kane
Free-kick wizard Harry Kane
Set-piece aerial threat Harry Maguire
Card magnet Kalvin Phillips

Denmark

Penalty taker Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg
Free-kick wizardMikkel Damsgaard
Set-piece aerial threatSimon Kjaer
Card magnetPierre-Emile Hojbjerg

Lowdown

Venue Wembley Stadium, London
Fans allowed 60,000
Time Zone BST
Weather Sunny spells, max 18C
FIFA rankings England (4), Denmark (10)
Head to Head Nations League, October 2020 – England 0 Denmark 1; Nations League, September 2020 – Denmark 0 England 0; Friendly, March 2014 – England 1 Denmark 0; Friendly, February 2011 – Denmark 1 England 2.

Bet builder

England to win
England seem to be steadily improving and should have too much quality in the attacking areas for a defensively suspect Denmark, who have kept just one clean sheet in five matches.

Over two goals
Six of Denmark's last seven competitive games have featured at least three goals and the visitors can play their part in a high-scoring contest at Wembley.

Raheem Sterling to score at any time
Denmark's back three can struggle against players with sharp pace and movement and those qualities have been evident from Raheem Sterling, who has scored the opening goal in three of England's five matches.

Guide price 9-2

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