England v Italy predictions, betting odds and tips: Three Lions can finish the job

Where to watch 

Channel 4, 7.45pm Tuesday

Best bet

England
2pts 4-6 Coral, Ladbrokes

England v Italy odds

England 4-6
Italy 24-5
Draw 11-4

Odds correct at time of publishing

England v Italy team news

England
Bukayo Saka (hamstring) had to withdraw from the squad and Mason Mount, Nick Pope, Reece James, Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell missed out with injuries.

Italy
Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Zaniolo withdrew from the squad after being caught up in the recent Serie A gambling allegations. Injuries have forced the withdrawals of Federico Chiesa, Ivan Provodel and Mattia Zaccagni.

England v Italy predictions

England are on a 12-game winning streak in home European Championship qualifiers and can clinch a place a Germany 2024 by defeating Italy at Wembley.

Gareth Southgate utilised fringe players for Friday's underwhelming 1-0 victory over Australia, but his main focus has always been on the clash with Italy which is the first of three opportunities for the Three Lions to nail down a top-two finish in Group C.

Southgate's side dropped their first points of the campaign when drawing 1-1 with Ukraine last month but they need just one more win to progress and qualification is almost certainly a matter of time with next month's matches at home to Malta and away to North Macedonia still to come.

There is unlikely to be any sense of jeopardy in the England camp, but they will be highly motivated to finish the job as quickly as possible.

Italian fans will have fond memories of their last visit to Wembley, July 2021, which saw their nation crowned European champions at England's expense.

The Azzurri had to win a penalty shootout to seal the deal but they were worthy winners having dominated large parts of the contest.

At that point it seemed that Italy were well positioned to go on and be a major force in world football. But they suffered a disastrous failure to reach the 2022 World Cup, losing 1-0 at home to North Macedonia in a playoff semi-final, and they are making hard work of reaching Euro 2024.

Roberto Mancini resigned as head coach earlier this summer, giving way to Luciano Spalletti, and there has been massive change on the playing front with only three members of Italy's Euro 2020 final starting 11 in contention to feature this week.

Spalletti's spell in the dugout got off to a poor start with a 1-1 draw away to North Macedonia, although subsequent victories at home to Ukraine (2-1) and Malta (4-0) have lifted his team into second place.

Italy are level on points with Ukraine having played one game less and they will be targeting four points from the next two games, away to England and at home to North Macedonia, to seal qualification with a game to spare.

Anything less and their fate will probably be undecided when they take on Ukraine in Leverkusen next month.

Italy will be well aware of the importance of taking something against England but their squad looks threadbare after the withdrawals of Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Zaniolo, Federico Chiesa, Ivan Provodel and Mattia Zaccagni.

England, by contrast, have multiple options and they look especially potent in attack with Harry Kane off to a fantastic start at Bayern Munich and Jude Bellingham scoring ten goals in as many appearances for Real Madrid.

Southgate's second string were a hard watch against Australia but his first 11 are capable of mixing it with any side in the world and they should be too strong for the injury-hit Italians.

Key stat

England have won their last 12 home European Championship qualifiers.

Probable teams

England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Trippier; Rice, Phillips; Foden, Bellingham, Rashford; Kane.

Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Frattesi, Locatelli, Barella; Berardi, Raspadori, Kean.

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