Azerbaijan v Wales: Euro 2020 qualifying betting preview, free tip & TV details

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Azerbaijan v Wales in Euro 2020 qualifying.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football and Main Event, 5pm Saturday

Best bet

Azerbaijan +1 on Asian handicap
1pt 41-40 bet365
Back this tip with bet365

Team news

Azerbaijan
Defenders Anton Krivotsyuk and Maksim Medevedev and attacker Dimitrij Zazarov are free from suspension.

Wales
Joe Allen serves a one-game ban and Danny Ward (personal reasons) and Tom Lawrence (illness) have withdrawn from the squad.

Match preview

Wales will probably need a faultless finish to Euro 2020 qualifying to win their passage to next summer's finals but they look far from guaranteed to pick up maximum points against Group E basement boys Azerbaijan in Baku.

Ryan Giggs's side are hot favourites to see off the Azeris and keep the dream alive going into next Tuesday's Cardiff clash at home to Hungary.

A draw would mean they remain in mathematical contention, as long as Slovakia fail to win away to Croatia.

In the event of a stalemate Wales would still be able to leapfrog Hungary next week but they would remain below the Slovaks, who are at home to Azerbaijan in their final match.

The clear objective for Wales is to finish the weekend with their fate in their hands and that means going all out for the three points.

Whenever teams are in desperate need of victories they often attract greater market support but there is a case for swimming against the tide.

Wales have some exciting players – including Gareth Bale and Dan James – but have won just two of their six qualifiers, scoring only six goals, and made hard work of defeating Azerbaijan 2-1 in Cardiff in September.

It took an 84th-minute goal from Bale to clinch the points that day and the outcome was slightly harsh on Azerbaijan, who played some good football and looked fairly comfortable going into the final ten minutes.

With two games to go Azerbaijan are guaranteed to finish bottom, justifying their status as the sectional sixth seeds.

But they have been competitive in the majority of their games and their efforts were rewarded in September when they held World Cup runners-up Croatia to a 1-1 draw in Baku.

Head coach Nikola Jurcevic will be looking for more signs of progress in the final two matches and his hand is strengthened by the return of left-back Anton Krivotsyuk, central defender Maksim Medvedev and influential attacker Dimitrij Nazarov, who were suspended for last month's 1-0 loss away to Hungary.

While the Azeris look stronger, Wales have to make three enforced changes because Joe Rodon and Jonny Williams are injured and Joe Allen is serving a one-game ban.

And there must be doubts over the condition of Bale, who has been struggling with a an unspecified injury and has not played since scoring for Wales in last month's 1-1 draw at home to Croatia.

The big plus for Wales is the availability of a fully-fit Aaron Ramsey, who is set to make his first appearance of the campaign.

But the contest still looks like a tough assignment for Giggs's side and, if they pass the test, they are unlikely to do so with flying colours.

Dropped points are a real possibility and there is value in siding with Azerbaijan with a one-goal start on the Asian handicap – meaning a winning bet should the hosts win or draw and stakes returned if Wales win by a single goal.

Key stat

Wales have not won any of their last 13 matches by more than one goal.

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