Tour de France predictions and cycling betting tips: Tadej Pogacar can reclaim yellow jersey

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Tadej Pogacar to win the Tour de France
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Losing is not something Tadej Pogacar is accustomed to.

Since bursting on to the scene at the Vuelta a Espana in 2019, Pogacar's rise to the top of cycling has been stratospheric.

The youngest Tour de France winner in over a century. Check. The first rider to win the general, mountains and youth classifications in the same Tour. Check. The first Tour de France winner to win the Tour of Flanders since 1975; the list of achievements goes on.

But the 2022 Tour did not go to script for the Slovene, who for the first time showed that he isn't the invincible force many thought.

Jumbo-Visma came to last year's Tour with a plan to dethrone Pogacar and they executed it to the letter on stage 11, utilising their twin leaders Jonas Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic to devastating effect.

Vingegaard, who was second to Pogacar in 2021, won that pivotal stage to take over in the yellow jersey and he would ride into Paris with it draped across his shoulder less than two weeks later.

Thoughts quickly turned to a trilogy showdown in France this year, and pundits and bookmakers alike believe we can look forward to another battle royal this July. The layers go 14-1 bar the superstar pair and are struggling to split them.

Pogacar had been favourite to exact his revenge on Vingegaard after a stunning spring campaign in which he won the general classification at the Ruta del Sol and Paris-Nice, as well as finishing first at the Tour of Flanders, Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallonne one-day races.

However, his seemingly unstoppable progress was checked at Liege-Bastogne-Liege in late April, when he crashed and broke his left wrist, and Vingegaard assumed favouritism after a dominant win at the Criterium du Dauphine.

Pogacar has recently said that his injury came at the "perfect time" for his Tour preparations with a break planned after Liege in any case. And he made a typically emphatic return at the Slovenian national championships last week, winning the time-trial and road race.

How much impact Pogacar's injury had on his training for the Tour is open to debate but it's not as if Vingegaard has been consistently racing all season. The Dane has participated in just the Dauphine and Tour of the Basque Country since March's Paris-Nice, the only time the two have crossed paths this season.

Vingegaard was third behind Pogacar in that eight-stage race, although that battle will likely count for little over the upcoming three weeks.

It's true that the defending champion has a stronger team than Pogacar, but there is perhaps not as much as a difference in strength as has been advertised - and Pogacar showed in 2020 and 2021 that he can cope just fine fighting his own battles in any case.

His demise last year was more down to the superb tactics of Jumbo-Visma than anything and with last year's co-leader Roglic having successfully targeted the Giro in May, the Dutch squad won't be able to play the same card twice with their squad unquestionably behind Vingegaard's cause.

In the Dane's favour is that this year there is only 22.4km of time-trialling to be undertaken with a much greater emphasis placed on the mountains battle. But if Pogacar lines up on the start line in Bilbao on Saturday in the same form as his memorable spring it may well take another tactical masterpiece from Jumbo to stop him. 

It could be a Tour de France battle for the ages - and one in which the dethroned champion could reclaim his crown.

Cavendish 13-8 to break stage victories record

There is unlikely to be a British winner of the Tour this year so all eyes will be on whether or not Mark Cavendish can become the winningmost stage victor in the race's long history.

Cavendish, who announced he will retire at the end of the season at the Giro d'Italia in May, is currently locked on 34 Tour stage successes alongside legend Eddy Merckx and the Manx Missile is 13-8 with bet365 to get the victory he needs to become the most prolific stage winner in the race's long history.

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