Stable form, race replays and paddock clues - trading ideas with the experts about how to be a good punter

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A month ago, we were talking amongst ourselves about how to stay safe while enjoying a betting habit, and great fun it was too. The conversation I'd like to open now is about what works for you when you're betting on horses and whether there are any unanswered questions about the game which you'd like sorted out.

These thoughts are prompted by a new series being run elsewhere in the Racing Post universe: Ask The Tipsters, in which some of our big names give detailed responses to queries from readers. Two issues in, I'm hooked.

I suppose it helped that they started straight in on the subject of trainer form, which has become a specialist subject for me, or at least as close to a specialist subject as I have in the area of tipping. I found myself slightly disagreeing with an assertion by Keith Melrose that "nine times out of ten, you cannot tell for definite whether a yard is in good form".

The fact that we differ probably means I'm wrong but I think if you pay attention to the game on a day-to-day basis, you end up with quite a good handle on where many yards are in their various cycles. The performances of fancied or half-fancied runners tell you quite a bit. Betting market confidence tells you something. Even the number and type of entries can be insightful, depending on the yard, as can jockey bookings. You have to accept that trends will always be bucked by the odd runner.

I'm not really talking about the major yards in jump racing. We've reached the stage where you can basically take it as read that any runners from the Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson operations will be able to run to form between November and April, unless recent results strongly suggest otherwise. They can have the odd quiet week early in the year after flu jabs have been administered but apart from that it's usually just a question of noticing when their horses have had enough for the season.

The top trainers rarely have a spell out of formCredit: Edward Whitaker

For everyone else, I generally like to see some recent success before having a bet, depending on the size of yard. One of the best sources of value is in cottoning on to a small stable that's got its horses in great shape for the first time in many months. The risk is that you can be fooled by false dawns, but horses from such stables are generally sent off at odds big enough to allow for plenty of risk.

Before my hobby horse runs away with me, I should mention some other topics that have come up. Paul Kealy spoke in week one about the need to maintain a breadth of interest in all of the various sources of racing-related information, and also of the need to keep faith with yourself during a losing run. Tom Segal explained how much room he has in his life for assessing horses in the paddock (not much).

In the second instalment, Keith sought to cheer up a couple of punters who felt sure the game was easier back in the good, old days. I must admit, I feel that turning a profit from betting on horses has never been harder – not that it was ever easy. 

For me, a key realisation is that you're not trying to beat a bookmaker, you're trying to be smarter than most other punters. If you can be that, you'll get paid in the end. It's a bit like the old joke about the two guys on safari who see a lion sneaking up. "You'll never outrun him," says one. "I just need to outrun you," says his friend.

Once your focus is on fellow punters rather than the bookie, you can start thinking about what mistakes they might make, which you can hope to avoid or perhaps even profit from.

How to interpret a horse's early runs and what juice can be squeezed out of watching replays, those have been the other topics tackled so far. A new instalment is due out soon and I'll disappear into it with a cup of coffee when I should be doing something else.

What's your focus when choosing a bet? And do you have any questions that Keith, Tom or Paul (our fab three) might usefully answer, perhaps illuminating some problem that has bothered you for ages? 

If so, get in touch with me by the usual email address or you could go direct to them via askthetipsters@racingpost.com. Maybe it'll help you be a better punter or maybe it'll just pass the time until the next runner you fancy. Either way, we'll be delighted to hear from you.

Read more from Ask The Tipsters . . .

Your punting questions answered - including how to make the most of race replays and how to spot the big improver 

'Keep beating SP and the results will turn' - the Racing Post's top tipsters answer your punting questions 

Three things to look out for on Monday

1 Nick Alexander ended November on a roll, with three winners from four runners in the final two days of the month, including 12-1 and 6-1 winners in handicaps. He's had no runner yet in December but is evidently determined to make the most of today's card at Ayr, for which he has 11 declarations, though three have now been withdrawn. I'd be inclined to leave alone his five runners across the two divisions of the maiden hurdle, though Hombre De Guerra was an eyecatcher last time and has an obvious chance to break his duck. That leaves Ned Tanner (1.20), who ran well last time, Duyfken (3.20), who should be better for his reappearance, and Mack The Man (1.50), new to the yard and handily treated on old form. 

2 Arguably the most interesting runner at Lingfield is Clongowes, making his debut for Neil King with Bryony Frost booked in a novice handicap hurdle (2.05). Rated in the 90s when a Flat racer for Jim Bolger, Clongowes ended up with a hurdles rating in the 80s after three seasons at a Sussex yard with a low jumps strike-rate. But he was going to win at Newton Abbot in May when stumbling and falling after the final flight. The handicapper has raised him 4lb but he's still very handily rated if ready to go on this first run since. 

Clongowes14:05 Lingfield

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Jky: Bryony Frost Tnr: Neil King

3 Surely no one will be more motivated than Billy Loughnane at Chelmsford today, where he has five rides.After this, there's just Southwell tomorrow before he starts a 13-day suspension, punishment for his accumulation of interference breaches in the past half-year. At least he'll have plenty of time for Christmas shopping and to reflect on the many successes of his rookie year, as well as how he can do better in future. But it obviously damages his chances in the all-weather title race, in which Rossa Ryan has now drawn level after a Sunday treble at Wolves. Sky Bet had Loughnane at 10-11 until news of the suspension broke but he's now out to 6-4. Billy had a double on his father's horses at Wolverhampton on Saturday, so it will be interesting to see what happens when they team up with McCauley's Tavern (8.00) tonight.

McCauley's Tavern20:00 Chelmsford (A.W)

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Jky: Billy Loughnane Tnr: Mark Loughnane

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