What the betting can tell us about whether Constitution Hill will go chasing next season

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Did we learn something about Constitution Hill's future over the weekend? I feel that we did.

Assiduous readers of the Racing Post will have enjoyed a column in Saturday's paper in which David Jennings was in combative form, scoffing at suggestions that the reigning champion hurdler could be sent over fences in the autumn. While the romance of the idea appeals to him, his conclusion was: "There is not a hope in hell".

But DJ didn't stop there. He persuaded Paddy Power to open a market on the subject and I'm surprised to find it's still live in their 'Horse racing specials' section as the weekend draws to a close, under the heading: "What Obstacles Will Constitution Hill Run Over On His 1st Start Of The 2023/24 NH Season?" 

The firm's odds compilers evidently thought my colleague had got it all wrong. They quoted 8-11 about that first run being over fences and even money that it would be over hurdles instead. "I can't see the evens lasting too long," quoth Mr Jennings and how right he was.

By the time I poked my nose in on Sunday morning, the market had quite a different look. 'Hurdles' had shortened right in to 4-7 while 'Fences' had slid out to 5-4.

Now of course this is a specials market and, I should think, not one of the more vigorous specials markets, at that. There's a very healthy over-round built into the odds on offer and large stakes are not being accepted. So there's a limit to the significance of what can be read into this "plunge". 

I think what we're being taught is a lesson in realism, very much along the lines of what David was preaching in his column. Much as we all might wish to see Constitution Hill tackling fences next term, that cannot be the most likely outcome. There are, as it were, obstacles that will have to be cleared along the way. 

Paddy Power's people perhaps fixated on the ambitions of the horse's owner, Michael Buckley, quoted last week as saying: "My ambition would be to equal what Dawn Run did and try to win a Gold Cup". But I can think of at least two things that have to happen before Constitution Hill jumps a fence in public: i) Buckley will have to win round Nicky Henderson to his way of thinking and ii) the horse will have to school pleasingly over the larger obstacles.

The two men are apparently planning to chew it over this summer and hopefully it will be enormous fun. The actual racing part looks pretty stressful for Henderson but what could be more pleasurable than making plans for your multi-talented champion racehorse, savouring your options in the knowledge that no final decision is required for months?

I picture them settling down to it over whisky as dusk descends on some Caribbean hotel. In the good old days of expense-account journalism, I might have been sent after them in the hope of listening in from some nearby armchair.

At all events, I don't think we're looking at a forgone conclusion. The owner will state his case and the trainer, while instinctively conservative, may be won round. Doing a Dawn Run, it's an enticing prospect. Intoxicating, even.

But everything will have to go very smoothly for Constitution Hill to actually take part in a novice chase. At the first sign of any kind of bump in the road, the instinct of all concerned will be to take the safe, orthodox option of sticking to hurdles for another season.

Whether it be a hair-raising schooling session or a setback in training or a dry spell of weather that means there's no give in the ground when a suitable novice chase is being sought, or some other factor I haven't foreseen, there are lots of things that could go wrong.

That's why even-money was the wrong price for Constitution Hill to start over hurdles next term. The revised odds of 4-7 might still be a bit of value, if you have nothing better to do with that fiver.

Monday's picks

I was against Calgary Tiger (2.30) when he went to Newbury at the start of this month but he proved that day that his previous win was no fluke and that he remained remarkably well handicapped. In fact, he stepped up quite a bit on what he'd shown before.

Now he returns to Wincanton, where he won last month on his return from a two-year absence, and if anything this looks a more winnable race than the Newbury one. He's up 10lb but has earned that and more. This track is a good fit for the way he races and I'm surprised to be getting 7-4.

In similar vein, the 11-4 is fine about Flying Verse (3.00) in the following veterans chase as he seeks to follow up his Doncaster success for the resurgent David Dennis yard. As he showed in the autumn, three miles on a decent surface is his thing and this 0-120 looks a weak contest.

The Kings Writ is one who could be troublesome, dropping in grade, but I think he'd rather have more juice in the ground. Hotel Du Nord may well show improved form for the change of stables but I doubt if it will be enough and in any case the fancy prices disappeared last night.

'He's being seriously underestimated' - our Monday man's three Wincanton wagers  

Three things to look out for today . . .

1. Brentford Hope is an interesting addition to Harry Derham's yard. Rated 107 on the Flat at his peak and placed in a couple of French Group 3s, he seemed a likely sort to give Richard Hughes his first jumps winner as a trainer when he set out over hurdles this season. Frustratingly, he finished runner-up in all three starts, including when well fancied for a handicap at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Now six, he was sold at auction in early February and fetched 90,000gns. Having previously carried the familiar silks of Sean Mulryan, he now represents a new syndicate called The Optimists, whoever they may be. Derham, who has had an excellent ten winners from his first 38 runners, tries Brentford Hope back in maiden company at Wincanton with a tongue tie fitted.

2. It must be time for the new turf season because we've had the Cheltenham Festival and the Dubai World Cup. The third sign, if you need one, is the reappearance of Benoit de la Sayette, who has three booked rides at Lingfield. Having won the champion apprentice title by 61 wins to 55 for Harry Davies, De La Sayette has not been seen riding in Britain since October. Naturally, he wants to get back in the swing of things before Lincoln day and he is also booked for Wolverhampton tomorrow, with possible rides pencilled in for Wednesday and Friday as well. His first ride is on Forward Flight, a newcomer to Kevin Philippart de Foy's yard, in the opening handicap. Ermesinde, trying to beat a penalty in a novice race for fillies, gives him a more obvious winning chance. 

3. It must be time for the new turf season because we've had the Cheltenham Festival and the Dubai World Cup. The third sign, if you need one, is the reappearance of Benoit de la Sayette, who has three booked rides at Lingfield. Having won the champion apprentice title by 61 wins to 55 for Harry Davies, De La Sayette has not been seen riding in Britain since October. Naturally, he wants to get back in the swing of things before Lincoln day and he is also booked for Wolverhampton tomorrow, with possible rides pencilled in for Wednesday and Friday as well. His first ride is on Forward Flight, a newcomer to Kevin Philippart de Foy's yard, in the opening handicap. Ermesinde, trying to beat a penalty in a novice race for fillies, gives him a more obvious winning chance. 

Read these next:

What's on this week: the Flat is back as Doncaster takes centre stage on ITV with the Lincoln  

'It’s going to be a mammoth task' - Emmet Mullins pragmatic as Noble Yeats bids to claim back-to-back Nationals  

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.