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Can State Man beat Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle? Our experts have their say

State Man and Paul Townend clear the last when winning the Gr.1 Morgiana Hurdle. Punchestown.Photo: Patrick McCann/Racing Post20.11.2022
State Man: 3-1 for the Champion HurdleCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

State Man enhanced his Cheltenham Festival credentials with a stylish win in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. He is now generally 3-1 for next month's Champion Hurdle, with Constitution Hill still the odds-on favourite. But could Willie Mullins' raider topple the favourite? Our experts give their verdict.


'This is a proper rival for him'

He probably won't, but he could. We will certainly get to find out exactly what Constitution Hill is made of now.

This is a proper rival for him. A powerful rival, who is jumping slicker and quicker by the day. An uncomplicated rival, who goes out there and does his thing. A rival who is improving at a rapid rate.

If you're thinking of getting stuck into Constitution Hill at 30-100 and sticking him into every multiple under the sun, you will think twice about it now. There is too much of a gap between the pair in the market.  State Man might not win but he shouldn't be 3-1, and the closer the race gets the closer they will get in the market.

Nicky Henderson will be more nervous now than he was last week, that's for sure.
David Jennings, deputy Ireland editor

'At his best nothing can touch him'

It's possible but not probable.

In any normal year State Man would be a warm favourite for the Champion Hurdle after disposing of top-class performers like Honeysuckle and Vauban with such relative ease.

I reckon he would have won the last three Champion Hurdles on that form, so he clearly has a chance of upsetting Constitution Hill.

The problem is that, on what we saw at Cheltenham and Newcastle, Constitution Hill is the best hurdler since Istabraq and if he runs to his very best there isn't a horse out there who can touch him. Even one as good as State Man.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor

'He has to be the main danger now'

He's the main danger, particularly as he is still unexposed, but Constitution Hill looks very special and I don't quite think State Man is in that bracket.

He goes through his races professionally and has that bit of class, but Constitution Hill is as exceptional a hurdler as I can remember.

I would also be slightly hesitant over the form of those in behind. They were bunched up at the finish, with the 147-rated Pied Piper just behind two horses with marks in the 160s.

That said, there is not much to shout about in the Champion Hurdle division other than the top two and there is no obvious young pretender who could step up to the level shown by State Man here. He will give him a test but I do not think he will be the best horse on the day.
James Stevens, reporter

'Constitution Hill backers should not be scared'

State Man confirmed himself as a top-class horse but nothing about that performance would be giving Nicky Henderson or Constitution Hill any sleepless nights.

Beating Honeysuckle by just shy of five lengths would look great form if the second had not already shown her powers to be waning with defeat in the Hatton's Grace.

Constitution Hill's hurdling technique is far more fluent and he has looked an absolute monster in his two defeats over Epatante this season. His stablemate finished second to Honeysuckle in last year's Champion and a straight line through that form suggests that State Man still has about nine lengths to make up.

If the question was will State Man get the closest to Constitution Hill then the answer is yes, but can he beat him? Absolutely no chance.
Harry Wilson, reporter


Read these next:

State Man shines in Irish Champion Hurdle as he dethrones valiant Honeysuckle 

'He's growing up every day' - Russell rides first Grade 1 since shock return as Potter powers home 

Mullins left 'a little surprised' as Gentleman De Mee stuns 1-4 stablemate Blue Lord 


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Published on 5 February 2023inExpert jury

Last updated 13:58, 6 February 2023

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