Will early season form or late-season bloomers flourish in a puzzling Mill Reef?

Saturday: 4.00 Newbury
Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) | 6f | 2yo | ITV/RTV

It is a common misconception that the result of the Coventry Stakes has a strong bearing on the Mill Reef. In fact, precocious two-year-old colts who ran in the premium 6f contest at Royal Ascot have a pretty deplorable 0-8 record in this Group 2 sprint in the last decade.

The latest juvenile to try is Dhabab, who was all the rage and the 4-1 favourite for this year's Coventry after an impressive debut success at Leicester for trainers John and Thady Gosden.

It was not to be for the long-striding son of No Nay Never, but he was far from disgraced in finishing sixth after a luckless passage.

Punters will largely latch on to him once again due to his highly creditable third to Native Trail, who subsequently proved he ranks highly in the juvenile division by winning the National Stakes, in the Superlative at Newmarket last time.

Six of the last ten Mill Reef winners skipped Royal Ascot and were aimed at a late-season campaign. The most obvious types to fit that brief are recent Newmarket winner Manaccan and his Yarmouth conqueror Maglev, both of whom appear on a stiff upward curve after racing greenly on their first couple of outings.

Group 1 form comes courtesy of Gubbass, who finished fifth behind Perfect Power in the Prix Morny when last seen. Despite his evident success with two-year-olds, Richard Hannon has never won this race since taking over the reins from his father.

Prior to the Morny, Gubbass took third in a bunched finish to the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Three places further behind was Gis A Sub, who arguably had a better run through the race and may struggle to reverse the form despite a solid runner-up effort in the Gimcrack last month.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

Progressive Hierarchy could outrun odds

Hierarchy has a bit to find on official ratings, but the Mehmas colt was unfortunate to lose his unbeaten record last time and trainer Hugo Palmer would not be surprised if he outran his odds.

After landing his first two starts at Wolverhampton and Salisbury in good style, Hierarchy could finish only third when stepped up to Group 3 company in Kempton's Sirenia Stakes.

However, Palmer has outlined solid reasons for Hierarchy’s defeat that afternoon and he would not need to improve a great deal to make a splash at Group 2 level.

"He's not done much wrong," Palmer said. "Oisin [Murphy] felt that Hierarchy jumped slowly at Kempton after noticing the fillies drawn on either side of him. He wasn't coltish, but he was aware of them.

"As we all know, it's very difficult to make up ground at Kempton after the work they've done to the surface, and Hierarchy did really well to finish third, having missed the break."

Hierarchy was supplemented for the Mill Reef and it is rare for connections to do so unless they feel they have a chance of being competitive.

Palmer added: "The owners were keen to race and I think he'll run well."

What they say

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Dhabab
He's back in trip after running very well to be third in the Superlative Stakes at the July meeting and that form is working out well. We've freshened him up at home since and we're hopeful of a bold run.

Ed Bethell, trainer of Fearby
It's a wide-open renewal, but he's a very promising horse and goes there with a great chance.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Gis A Sub and Melayu Kingdom
Gis A Sub showed his true colours in the Gimcrack, chasing home Lusail, after the race didn't pan out for him in the Richmond. He should like the track at Newbury and be there or thereabouts at the finish. Melayu Kingdom won on his debut at Thirsk and then we gave him a good break. He was a bit green and missed the break at Ripon before doing some great work late on.

William Haggas, trainer of Maglev
He ran a good race at York, but the last furlong probably wasn't his strongest so we're going back to six furlongs. A fast pace would suit him.

Clive Cox, trainer of Wings Of War
We've not seen the best of him and drying conditions is a plus. He was a bit unlucky at Kempton last time when he was trapped a bit far back from his draw, but finished strongly. He's still progressing.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Saturday's race previews:

2.15 Newbury: will the true Khaadem turn up again? Tom Collins assesses a 'wide-open' sprint

2.30 Ayr: trainer views and tipster analysis before an ultra-competitive Ayr Silver Cup

2.50 Newbury: gelded Al Aasy should be close to his best on return says William Haggas

3.05 Ayr: unbeaten runner's tendency to hit flat spot makes her an in-running play

3.40 Ayr: 'Hopefully this will be his last run in a handicap' – key Ayr Gold Cup quotes

3.40 Ayr: why Great Ambassador may find himself in the worst possible position (Members' Club)

4.30 Gowran Park: 'It's probably the first time all season she's got her proper ground'

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