Who will land the Supreme? Four former winners give their verdict

1.30 Cheltenham
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m½f | Old course | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

Noel Fehily
Winning rider on Summerville Boy in 2018
It's a very good Supreme and probably as good as we've seen since Altior won the race in 2016. Shishkin could be a very good horse but I think the way the weather has gone, it will suit Asterion Forlonge and he'd be the one I'd want to ride in the race. He's strong at the trip.

Fiddlerontheroof is a Tolworth winner who is going to go on the ground and is another one with a very good chance, but you could finish fourth and be a very good horse such is the strength in depth of the race.

Summerville Boy and Noel Fehily make their way back through the crowd to the winner's enclosure after winning the Supreme in 2018Credit: Edward Whitaker

Robert Thornton
Winning rider on Captain Cee Bee in 2008
I'm going to go for Chantry House. He has course form and, having won a point-to-point over three miles, he stays the trip very well which is what you're going to need to do on the ground.

It helps if you can travel early and hold a position but you always need to see out the two miles really well in the Supreme because it's an end-to-end gallop and there will be no hiding places for the speed horses. I think he looks the value in a wide open race.

Charlie Swan
Winning rider on Like-A-Butterfly in 2002 and Montelado in 1993
A classy horse wins the Supreme and you need to have tactical pace but with the ground being soft, you're going to have to stay well.

Connections are keen on Asterion Forlonge. They like him a lot, he's guaranteed to go on the ground and is a big danger but I've been impressed with Chantry House and would go for him. He looks like a bit of a grinder and I think he's another who stays very well, which is what you need.

Carl Llewellyn
Winning rider on Arctic Kinsman in 1994
It's a very strong race but my pick would be Asterion Forlonge, who has got very solid form. You need a high cruising speed and an accurate jumper to win a Supreme and that's what he is.

He's got pace but stays very well and I think he might prove to be the strongest up the hill. You will need to get further than two miles with the ground the way it is and I think he has the right attributes.

Sound pace almost guaranteed but market leaders have questions to answer

Two things, besides the roar, are near enough guaranteed in the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival: a big field and a sound pace.

This year's field size of 16 is fairly typical as it has ranged from 12 to 19 in the last ten years. The pace has to be taken on trust to a point, although second favourite Asterion Forlonge is among a handful known to stride on.

He has the best form, having won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time, a race his trainer Willie Mullins tends to use for his main hope in the Supreme. Klassical Dream, Vautour and Champagne Fever have all done the double.

Of slight concern for Asterion Forlonge is how he tended to jump right and carry his head last time. He is allowed to be inexperienced after just four runs, including a point-to-point, but it is worth mentioning given the lion's den he now enters.

Shishkin, in the same colours but trained by Nicky Henderson, is the long-time favourite. He has not even run in a Graded race yet, but he has slammed a couple of useful fields in the style of a horse who should be competing for top honours.

He finishes races strongly and has not been tested in this environment yet, although that goes for most of his rivals too. He has the background of a future staying chaser but plenty of past Supreme winners were the same.

The state of the ground will not be known definitely until after the race, which creates a problem for Fiddlerontheroof's would-be backers. That he is of Grade 1 quality is not doubted, although he has proved as much only on Sandown's uniquely testing ground. If the ground is not soft, he has that question to answer.

Abacadabras has also run mostly on testing ground. He has not been seen since December 27 but gained plenty of experience during the early months of the winter. His sole defeat this season has been to stablemate Envoi Allen. Gordon Elliott has never let there be any doubt that the latter is the favoured child, but that is not to say that Cinderella shall not go to the ball.

There is a number in the race near impossible to fancy. Nominal outsiders worth considering are the experienced and tough Edwardstone, Elixir D'Ainay, who will has form with Envoi Allen and failed for stamina at 2m6f last time, and Allart, who has more in common with stablemate Shishkin than their respective odds might imply.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Abacadabras
He’s a horse with lots of pace so the quicker the ground is, the better chance he would have. That said, we don’t know for sure that he wouldn’t handle really soft ground. He ran very well in the bumper here last year and is already a Grade 1 winner over hurdles this season, so we’d like to think he goes there with a decent chance.

Paul Townend, rider of Asterion Forlonge
I'm really looking forward to riding Asterion Forlonge. He impressed me a lot when he won in Naas and probably surprised me with the pace he showed to win at Leopardstown. He's a very strong stayer and a good ride to start the meeting with in that he's straightforward. We shouldn’t be getting caught up in the hustle and bustle of the race and it would be a dream start if we could get off the mark.

Chantry House (white cap): Nicky Henderson's apparent second string was a cosy winner at Newbury when last seenCredit: Edward Whitaker

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Allart, Chantry House and Shishkin
In most years I would settle for any one of them as my main Supreme runner. It's not quite like when Altior came into the race and I honestly couldn't see him being beaten but they really are three good horses. Shishkin is almost certainly a chaser for next season but he has definitely got gears. He is a strong traveller with a good change of pace. Chantry House is a lovely horse and so is Allart, who has been very impressive in both his wins.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Captain Guinness
Captain Guinness is a lovely horse. He'll be wearing ear plugs during the race and deserves to take his chance.

Alan King, trainer of Edwardstone
He looked sure to win at Haydock when he quickened up after the last but just got ran out of it, but he's had a great preparation since. We were second to Chantry House last year in a bumper, we've beaten Fiddlerontheroof and I hope and think he will be very competitive. He has a good each-way chance.

Colin Tizzard, trainer of Fiddlerontheroof
He didn't just win a Grade 1, he absolutely bolted up in the Tolworth. I'm sure he's got to step up again but that goes for every horse in the race and we've had a lovely prep. The conditions should suit him and the plan was always to come here a fresh horse.

Sam Thomas, trainer of Mario De Pail
He's done nothing wrong this season and is a horse going the right way. It looks a seriously strong race but he's earned the right to be there. I've rode horses in this race that have had no chance but if I was riding him I wouldn't be thinking that. I think he goes there with an each-way chance but whatever he does he's going to be a lovely horse next season.

Soviet Pimpernel: has the benefit of course formCredit: Alain Barr

Peter Fahey, trainer of Soviet Pimpernel
He's travelled over great and the fact he's been to Cheltenham already this season should stand him in good stead. That run has worked out well. There are about six or seven rated higher than him but if he could split a few of those and come home with some prize-money that would be great.

Paul Hennessy, trainer of Heaven Help Us
She’s won over course and distance, which is an obvious plus, and she could run a bit better than people think.
Lewis Porteous

Best offers on the Supreme

For a second consecutive year, William Hill are offering a standout seven places for the festival opener if 14 or more of the 16 declared runners line up on Tuesday, with six places set to be paid if 12 or more runners take their chance. The offer is available in shops and online and bets can be placed through the Racing Post app.

Supreme sponsors Sky Bet will refund a win single or the win part of an each-way single up to £/€10 on the opening race.

Cheltenham free bets

Paddy Power are offering money back as a free bet if your horse finishes second, third or fourth in the Supreme or any race on day one of the festival. Offer applies to win singles and the win part of each-way singles only, with a maximum free bet of £10 per customer per race and does not apply to bets placed in shops. This offer is also available when betting on Racing Post products. Not got a Paddy Power account? Sign up here.

Bet £20 on the first race of the festival on the Betfair Exchange and get £20 as a mobile free bet, valid on any of the remaining races on day one. Restricted to back bets on the Supreme and the free bet will not be valid on each-way or SP markets.

Terms and conditions apply

Spotlight verdict

Envoi Allen may not be running until Wednesday but this potential superstar could still be the key for punters seeking to open the festival with a winner. Gordon Elliott's unbeaten six-year-old would have been favourite if lining up today and no horse has finished closer to him over hurdles than stablemate Abacadabras, whose second place in the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December remains his sole defeat over hurdles. Shishkin was very impressive when an easy Listed winner at Huntingdon and is feared most, while the unexposed Captain Guinness is an attractive each-way option having done well to finish second at Punchestown last time. Asterion Forlonge has the credentials to run a big race for Willie Mullins, but this six-year-old has tended to edge to the right over his hurdles which is a concern. Chantry House and Fiddlerontheroof are others to consider.
Ben Hutton

Sky Bet have a money-back as cash offer available on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for full details click here. You still get this offer when betting through the Racing Post app so there's no need to switch apps