Which handicap hurdler does the trainer believe to be 'very well handicapped'?

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Just allow your mind to wander back in time for a moment. It's the first Saturday of 2019, it’s Sandown, it's testing ground and Jane Williams saddles the favourite for the finale on Tolworth Hurdle day, Monsieur Lecoq, who had just broken his maiden at the fifth attempt.

Now come back to the present day. In a quirk of the calendar the Tolworth takes place on the second Saturday in 2022, but it's still at Sandown, it's testing going and Jane Williams runs the favourite for the finale, Hermes Boy, who has just broken his maiden at the fourth attempt.

Williams has expressed doubts about running Hermes Boy if the ground becomes too heavy, but the case is compelling if he takes his chance.

It clearly doesn’t take Hercule Poirot to see the obvious similarities between Hermes Boy and Monsieur Lecoq. And you can take the comparison further because Monsieur Lecoq was making his handicap debut off a mark of 122 and Hermes Boy competes in his first handicap from a BHA rating of 124.

Lizzie Kelly rode Monsieur Lecoq, claiming 3lb, and Chester Williams partners Hermes Boy claiming, yes, you guessed it, 3lb. Monsieur Lecoq did the business in fine style three years ago and there will be plenty wondering whether Hermes Boy is ready to do the same.

The record of his trainer with similar runners can give us some encouragement on that score. Williams has three winners from 13 handicap hurdle debutants, including Monsieur Lecoq in this race three years ago, and that 23 per cent strike-rate has yielded a £10 profit to £1 stakes.

Monsieur Lecoq went on to finish second in the Imperial Cup on his next outing and there is a tenuous link to the race because Natural History went off 2-1 favourite for last year's running of the Imperial Cup after an impressive victory at Plumpton 12 days before.

The 101-rated Flat performer was thought to be thrown in off a mark of 132 in the Imperial Cup, but his sixth there has been followed by three disappointing runs.

That means he is only 3lb higher than for last year's Plumpton win, though, so he could be well handicapped.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

O'Brien keen to exploit Volkovka's mark

Fergal O'Brien considered running Volkovka in the Listed mares' hurdle on Sandown's card, but opted for the calmer waters of handicap company.

The Tyringham Partnership-owned five-year-old has made giant strides this season under 7lb claimer Peter Kavanagh, winning at Carlisle before finishing second here over 2m4f.

O'Brien is keen to exploit her mark of 132 as she drops back in trip with Paddy Brennan taking over in the saddle.

"She's been phenomenal," said the in-form trainer. "She gets held up, comes with her run and if she's good enough, she'll win. She seems in great form at home.

"We had her in the mares' race but we would have been slightly wrong at the weights with a couple of them and thought we better set our sights a bit lower."

What they say

Evan Williams, trainer of Mack The Man
He loves the track and has run some very good races there, including winning a Listed race and running well in the Imperial Cup. He hasn't got much up his sleeve on ratings, but he'll handle whatever the weather throws at him. It was a low-grade race at Exeter last time but it was lovely for him to win it.

Jane Williams, trainer of Hermes Boy
I'm not happy about the potential ground for him and he's not certain to run. I'm concerned about the amount of rain forecast and the prospect of heavy ground. He's not handled that type of ground before and he's not a very old horse. If it's soft ground I'd be really positive, but heavy makes me anxious. He's a really nice horse with a great pedigree in a race we've won before with another Diamond Boy [Monsieur Lecoq in 2019].

Alan O'Keeffe, assistant and partner to Jennie Candlish, trainer of Mcgowan's Pass
He likes heavy ground. We're still getting to know him but he ran well for a long way at Haydock when he probably didn't get the trip [on stable debut]. He's off a nice mark and we'd be hopeful. He's getting older now but seems to be doing everything right at home. One thing you'll have to do is handle the conditions and he will.

Gary Moore, trainer of Natural History
He needs to settle, but I think he will this time. It's a decent-sized field and should be a true-run race. He has lots of ability and has dropped in the weights since his last run. He's very well handicapped now.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

Saturday's race previews:

1.50 Sandown: trainer sees 'no negatives' for our expert's fancy in competitive handicap chase

2.25 Sandown: 'I hope it wasn't a flash in the pan' – Nicky Henderson on Constitution Hill

2.40 Wincanton: 'Absolute star' Getalead gunning for fourth win for up-and-coming yard

3.00 Sandown: 'This has been on the radar for a long time' – golden oldies take centre stage

3.15 Wincanton: former Grade 1 winner Slate House returns to chasing off a career-low mark

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