'This will help us decide where we go next season' - Jonbon takes on Greaneteen in Celebration Chase

Jonbon on his way to winning the Henry VIII at Sandown in DecemberCredit: Alan Crowhurst

You would think after 11 runs and nine wins that you could make up your mind about Jonbon. But his position as favourite for the Celebration Chase invites polarising reactions, even between one pair of ears.

Your first reaction is to scoff, of course. A novice who had his limitations exposed at the Cheltenham Festival is stepping into open company for the first time.

But then you look at his opposition – Greaneteen, Captain Guinness, Editeur Du Gite and Funambule Sivola. Of the five, Jonbon might be the one whose performance you could predict with most confidence, and we may not know his ceiling yet. Only El Fabiolo has beaten him over fences and that horse could be bound for the very top.

You need a moment of clarity to make sense of it all. Here was mine: every one of Jonbon's rivals has, at some point this season, either matched or beaten his best performance. That is not to say Jonbon will not improve past at least some of his rivals here, but it just shows that he has to. With that knowledge, odds around 6-4 are not so attractive.

Furthermore, this has the feel of a bit of an afterthought for Jonbon, who ran two weeks ago on Grand National day, while main market rival Greaneteen would have had this race as one of his main targets all season. His other was the Tingle Creek, in which he was second to Edwardstone. That day Greaneteen produced a 165 performance on Racing Post Ratings, 70 minutes after Jonbon ran to 164 in winning the Henry VIII on the same card.

Greaneteen: Grade 1 winner could drop in grade at Newbury

Greaneteen: excellent Sandown recordCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Jonbon ran a slightly faster time that day, partly on account of a pace he set himself. A good gallop in this race seems assured with his presence, but more so Editeur Du Gite's.

Going fast does not work against any of these horses, as they have all demonstrated they can sustain an end-to-end gallop. The alternative might not have been ideal for Jonbon, who is reckoned to be best off going up in distance next season.

The fact he has stuck to two miles after the Arkle may say something about connections' regard for Jonbon. Or maybe it is the habits of trainer Nicky Henderson, who is more resistant than most to moving established two-milers up in trip.

For all the clues he has given in his two seasons in Britain, there is still plenty to learn about Jonbon. If nothing else, his first run in open company should resolve a few of the remaining questions.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Captain Guinness
He seems to be in great form and ran a cracker at Cheltenham. Sandown suits him and we're looking forward to seeing how he gets on. I'm very happy with him anyway.

Gary Moore, trainer of Editeur Du Gite
He ran a reasonably good race at Cheltenham, but he had a hard race. If he hadn't been wiped out on the bend turning into the straight – which didn't help – he'd have probably been third. He's come out of Cheltenham pretty good. My biggest concern is how soft the chase track will be – down the back will be fine, but from the Pond fence up it will be pretty soft, which would be a negative. He goes there in good shape and hopefully he's got a reasonable chance.

Neil Phillips, part-owner of Funambule Sivola
He's the outsider but I don't think his price reflects his chance. The key is the ground because we don't want it to be tacky.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Greaneteen
He loves Sandown. He ran well at Cheltenham after making a mistake. He goes there in great shape and has a lovely chance.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Jonbon
He's in grand form. He's back in action quicker than you might think is ideal, but he's in really good order and has been since he won at Aintree two weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how he gets on with these proven two-mile chasers and it will help tell us where to go next season when he steps out of novice company.
Reporting by James Burn

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