'It's what we've been waiting for' - which trainer hopes forecast rain will arrive to help his top miler?

Aldaary is becoming the Trueshan of the older mile division. Alan King’s star stayer has been withdrawn from six races due to fast ground over the years and William Haggas is selecting mud-lover Aldaary’s battles with similar care.

The fragile five-year-old has missed multiple engagements this season because of the surface and his prospects of running in the Summer Mile will rest on how much rain arrives at Ascot. The question is: what is the best way to play these high-profile, ground-dependent types once they have been declared?

I received some criticism on social media for suggesting backing Trueshan in the Gold Cup at 11-2 on the Racing Post’s In The Know preview show last year, despite the fact he was an unlikely runner due to the going. I knew that, but he had been priced up as if he were running on ground quicker than ideal, which was never going to happen. Had enough rain fallen, Trueshan’s SP would likely have crashed into around 5-2 to beat Kyprios and Stradivarius after his Northumberland Plate triumph.

As it happened, Trueshan bypassed the Gold Cup, but no losses were incurred. Thinking along those lines for Aldaary could be a decent way into the Summer Mile as I'm sure Haggas wouldn't run him on unsuitable ground, meaning you'd get your money back, yet taking the best available odds now leaves you with a good bet should the rain come. He is the highest-rated runner in the field, has outstanding course form and is entitled to improve for his Criterion fourth at Newmarket a fortnight ago after 14 months off the track.

The idea that Jimi Hendrix is an early 5-1 shot to beat the likes of Aldaary, Angel Bleu, Master Of The Seas, Mighty Ulysses and Regal Reality in a Group 2 would have been laughable three months ago. Stylish handicap successes in the Spring Cup and Hunt Cup followed his Lincoln disappointment, however, and now he is rated 111, which puts him right in the mix.

Ascot produces its fair share of specialists and Jimi Hendrix is among just three course winners here, albeit on the straight track rather than the round one, along with Aldaary and outsider Dashing Roger.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Master a 'very live player'

On this day three years ago, Master Of The Seas looked as if he could be Godolphin's next superstar. He bolted up in Newmarket's Superlative Stakes, then came within a short head of landing the 2,000 Guineas in 2021.

By Dubawi, the five-year-old was limited to just one start last term when winning the Earl of Sefton, and some of his form in Dubai this season was encouraging, although he has to bounce back from an 18-length defeat in the Dubai Turf on his most recent outing.

Master Of The Seas: rain might be an issue for him, according to connectionsCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Charlie Appleby, who trains him, said: "Master Of The Seas is a very live player if you look at his best form and we've been delighted with his preparation. Any rain would be a slight concern but he looks in great nick."

The stable is also represented by New Kingdom, who seems the clear second string. "New Kingdom has a bit to find with some of the field, although it looks an open race if you take out the top three or four," added Appleby. "He is there on his merit and won't mind a bit of cut in the ground if the rain does appear."

What they say

William Haggas, trainer of Aldaary
I hope there's rain at Ascot as that will help him; it's what we've been waiting for. It's a bit soon since his last run, which isn't ideal. I don't like running horses who have been off for a while back this quickly, but he's got to get on and what other options are there? He likes Ascot and has good form there, albeit on the straight course.

Kenny McPeek, trainer of Classic Causeway
I'm still learning with all of this and I'm excited and interested to see how he runs. He's dropping in grade and trip and he's a Grade 1 winner in the States, but we've yet to figure out his niche as an older horse. I think he'd like the ground on the quicker side, while he's always shown speed in his races and he's a really solid, nice horse to have. It's a bit of an experiment, but you don't learn anything unless you try. He's an easy horse to handle as he likes to train and run, but this is a learning curve for him – and me!

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to Saeed Suhail, owner of Mighty Ulysses
We're very happy with his work, so hopefully he's got a good chance.
Reporting by James Burn

Read our Saturday previews:

1.45 Ascot: Can Mountain Peak 'rediscover his mojo' and win race again on 8lb better terms? 

3.10 York: 'His price is a bit of an insult and I was surprised when I saw it' - trainers have their say on the John Smith's Cup 

3.25 Newmarket: Who will fare best in clash of heavyweights? Analysis and quotes for Superlative Stakes showdown 

4.00 Newmarket: 'If he goes well, you could see him in stakes company down the line' - trainers on the Bunbury Cup 

4.35 Newmarket: Shaquille 'open to further improvement' as sprint star chases July Cup glory 

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.