'I just don't know whether this ground will suit him' - who will handle testing conditions best in Mill Reef?

It would be easy to think this race is usually run on soft ground given it comes so late in the calendar but that hasn’t been the case in recent seasons. Five of the last six runnings have been on good or faster going and it will therefore pose a totally different challenge this year.

The ground looks set to be testing at Newbury and it is always hard to weigh up who will handle such conditions in juvenile races as there is so little form available.

This is where pedigrees can help us and there are two sires whose progeny excel on heavy conditions that are represented in this race. The first is Territories, who is the sire of Mister Sketch, and the two-year-old was bought by Wathnan Racing following his victory at Salisbury last month.

Mister Sketch thrashed seven rivals by nine and a half lengths on that occasion, but it’s certainly fair to question what he beat. The third has finished a total of more than 20 lengths behind the winner in his two subsequent runs and not a single winner has come from the race.

A Topspeed figure of 71 suggests the time was nothing special, but he did show promise when second on his debut over course and distance and trainer Eve Johnson Houghton won the Acomb at York with Indian Run. She clearly has a smart one at home to test him against.

The other sire whose progeny like it when the mud is flying is No Nay Never and he is represented by Array, who comes here having been a beaten favourite at Kempton last time.

That defeat came in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes on the all-weather, when he was one place behind the reopposing Seven Questions who is by Kodiac. His progeny’s statistics tend to improve the quicker the ground, which suggests Array can reverse the form here.

Array still recorded a career best that day, improving on his easy victory in a novice at Newmarket previously, and there is every chance he can take another step forward.

Phoenix Of Spain is a new sire whose progeny are largely untested on heavy, so it’s hard to know how his representatives Haatem and Spanish Phoenix will take to it, while Magna Grecia is the sire of Roman Emperor and, from three runners on heavy, he has one winner.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Ground concern for Mister Sketch

Wathnan Racing’s latest acquisition Mister Sketch goes into the unknown on testing ground on just his third start for Eve Johnson Houghton.

The son of Territories encountered good to soft ground when second on his debut over course and distance in July. He followed that up with a blistering nine-and-a-half-length success on quicker ground at Salisbury, a performance that earned him this step up in class.

Richard Brown, racing adviser to Wathnan Racing, said: “He won very well at Salisbury and we were lucky enough to buy him. It was always the plan to run him in this race but whether this heavy ground is going to suit him I just don’t know. He ran a decent race first time on good to soft.

"Eve’s very happy with him but not exactly full of confidence as he’s a good-actioned horse but this will tell us plenty for the future."

What they say

Sean Levey, rider of Haatem
He’s won on easy ground so hopefully he can cope with conditions, and we know he stays further than this and that could be a positive given the ground. He has a penalty but hopefully he can overcome that.

Michael Bell, trainer of Red Zone Hero
He’s a progressive horse who was seen to good effect when winning at Doncaster last time. This looks the right race for him and he should be in the mix.

John Ryan, trainer of Roman Emperor
We’ll have to see what the ground is like to see if he will run. He’s a nice horse who ran well on his debut after which he had a sore shin. He wants some ease in the ground but whether he wants it this soft is another question.

George Scott, trainer of Seven Questions
He's as tough a horse you could wish to train and so consistent. I wouldn't worry about the rain because I feel it would inconvenience others more than him and whatever amount they get is fine for him. It's lovely to have him in a race of this quality. He stays the trip strongly, there's no doubt about that.
Reporting by David Milnes

Saturday previews:

1.30 Newbury: 'We need to get a run into her' - can anyone stop high-class Sense Of Duty on belated comeback?

2.25 Ayr: 'We've trained him for this race - who fancies their Ayr Silver Cup chances?   

2.30 Curragh: 'He's a fine, big horse who we like' - which of the Ballydoyle brigade can resume their Beresford domination?   

3.00 Ayr: 'I find it odd she's such a short-price favourite but I hope the market is right' - key quotes for the Firth of Clyde   

3.35 Ayr: 'This really should be his day and he's got a great chance' - top trainers on their Ayr Gold Cup hopefuls   

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