'I find it odd she's such a short-price favourite but I hope the market is right' - key quotes for the Firth of Clyde

Raqiya seemed a shaky odds-on favourite for Scotland’s only Group race at the beginning of the week and her price has since drifted to a more logical one in the Firth of Clyde Stakes.

Yet even in the revised betting, the reasons are stacking up to oppose the market leader. Two-year-old Group races often throw up big-priced scorers with juveniles progressing at different rates and the Firth of Clyde is no different. There have been winners in this at odds of 20-1, 16-1, 8-1, 11-1, 16-1 and 25-1 in the past eight years.

Raqiya’s Haydock novice victory last time, although impressive, fails to align with her odds on ground conditions she is untested on. Racing Post Ratings have her on a similar level to Marco Botti’s unbeaten filly Great Generation and Irish raider Navassa Island. BHA ratings also imply that Dorothy Lawrence and Pretty Crystal are better than Raqiya at this stage in their careers.

Staying further than 6f can often be an advantage when conditions are on the slower side and Pretty Crystal brings soft-ground 7f form to the table. She caught the eye when fourth in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood after meeting trouble in running behind subsequent Group 2 winner Darnation, and proved she relishes a stiff 6f at Ascot the time before with a fine second to Prix Morny fourth Sacred Angel.

Michael O’Callaghan is 2-5 in Britain this year and Navassa Island, who was sent off a 5-1 chance for the Albany at Royal Ascot on quick going on just her second run, retains significant potential on this ground as a daughter of Territories.

The form of her Curragh maiden success is working out strongly as the second, third and fourth (reopposing Prime Art) have won nicely since.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Burrows: I wouldn't want too much more rain for Raqiya

Owen Burrows is hoping the market proves right for the Virgin Bet-sponsored Firth of Clyde Stakes after expressing surprise about Raqiya’s odds.

The Shadwell filly steps up to Group level with a 2-3 record in maiden and novice company but has 7lb to find with recent Dick Poole runner-up Dorothy Lawrence on official ratings.

Raqiya: won well at Haydock this monthCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Raqiya heads the betting at 7-4, whereas the Karl Burke-trained Dorothy Lawrence, who is a course winner and finished fourth in the Lowther, is a 5-1 chance.

Burrows, whose only runner at Ayr was a winner, said: "I find it odd she’s such a short-price favourite as Dorothy Lawrence was just pipped in the Dick Poole and that looks solid form, but I hope the market is right.

"She was impressive at Haydock and this looks a nice step into stakes company for her. She’s a big, leggy filly and could be quite nice next year, while she’s proven she has ability by what she’s done. She would be fine on good to soft but I wouldn’t want too much more rain for her.”

What they say

Grant Tuer, trainer of Bellarchi
She's been a little superstar, and while she looks up against it on paper, she's very tough and she'll like the ease in the ground and trip. She's 50-1 but should be half those odds.

Marco Botti, trainer of Great Generation
She’s a nice filly and has done nothing wrong. We weren’t surprised she won on debut and she was quite impressive at Chester. The cut in the ground shouldn’t be an issue for her and she deserves to take her chance. There aren’t too many black type races for these fillies and this looks like a good opportunity.

Philip Robinson, assistant racing manager to Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum, owner of Pretty Crystal
The drop back to six furlongs is ideal as she didn’t quite stay seven furlongs on soft ground at Goodwood last time. The ground is a slight concern as she’s best suited by good ground but she’s a very solid and likeable filly and it’s a matter of time before she wins at Group level, so hopefully it might be here.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

Saturday previews:

1.30 Newbury: 'We need to get a run into her' - can anyone stop high-class Sense Of Duty on belated comeback?

2.25 Ayr: 'We've trained him for this race - who fancies their Ayr Silver Cup chances?   

2.30 Curragh: 'He's a fine, big horse who we like' - which of the Ballydoyle brigade can resume their Beresford domination?   

3.15 Newbury: 'I just don't know whether this ground will suit him' - who will handle testing conditions best in Mill Reef?   

3.35 Ayr: 'This really should be his day and he's got a great chance' - top trainers on their Ayr Gold Cup hopefuls   

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