'We've trained him for this race - who fancies their Ayr Silver Cup chances?

The Ayr Silver Cup is a harder handicap to win than its big brother. That does not refer to the raw Racing Post Ratings, as unsurprisingly it has taken a 10lb better performance to win the Gold Cup over the last decade. But when it comes to how far ahead of their mark a horse must be, the Silver Cup comes out on top.

Recent winners of the Silver Cup have on average run to an RPR 10.8lb higher than their BHA mark on the day. For the Gold Cup the same figure is 10.5lb. This trend persists if you take a weighted average of the first four home.

This would agree with the average Silver Cup winner being slightly younger. So it seems unusual that as I write this, almost all the seven three- and four-year-olds in the Silver Cup are among the outsiders in the betting.

Monsieur Kodi won the consolation race for the Stewards' Cup last month. Admiral D and Lucky Man both ran cracking races in last year's Gold Cup. I am particularly interested in Dream For Gold. His progress has stalled recently, but only because of the sort of bad breaks which are all too familiar in sprint handicaps.

Yet the market is focusing on much older horses. It is not completely illogical. Even under their penalties Gulliver and Rathbone remain well treated on their best form. But aged nine and seven respectively, you have to question their chances of recapturing that form.

If you are looking for experience, you can get some pretty direct example. The field contains seven course winners and many more besides who have run well in the big sprints at this meeting before.

Among those is Woven. He is best known for his form in the spring, but was second behind the thrown-in Dusky Lord in this race last year. He is a member of the old guard who could be underrated by the market.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

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Jim Goldie boasts strong hand

Jim Goldie, the leading trainer at Ayr this season, has three live chances of a big-race winner, but finds it hard to split them.

Call Me Ginger and Be Proud, who were separated by half a length in the Bronze Cup two years ago, are joined by Abduction.

Jim Goldie: has three runners in the Silver CupCredit: John Grossick

“Call Me Ginger is in good form and knows where the winning post is at Ayr,” Goldie said. “We got it wrong at Doncaster. Let’s hope he bounces back.”

He added: “Be Proud ran well on heavy ground at Haydock a few starts back, but most of his best form is on a better surface.

“Abduction is also more effective on good ground. The strong pace will suit him, though, and he won on this card last year. We’ve trained him for this race.”

What they say

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Bergerac, Dream For Gold and Fast And Loose
Bergerac enjoyed a great season last year, and finished sixth in the Ayr Gold Cup. He has been below-par this term and needs to bounce back. Dream For Gold has improved all year, and there aren’t many miles on the clock. Fast And Loose went very close in the Bronze Cup last year. He likes Ayr, and hopefully the return to that track can see him back to his best.

David O’Meara, trainer of Gulliver
He won very nicely at Southwell and goes there in good form.

Kevin Philippart de Foy, trainer of Cairn Gorm
He will enjoy the cut in the ground and is suited by these big fields. He needs plenty of cover and a likely strong pace should help. You can draw a line through his Goodwood run. I'm hopeful he can run a good race – he is capable when things go his way.

Grant Tuer, trainer of Illusionist
He'll love the cut in the ground and he's in as good a nick as I've had him in a long while. A fast pace suits him well and hopefully he gets the breaks in running.

Michael Herrington, trainer of Rathbone
He’s in great order and is well-in. Connor [Planas] gets on well with the horse, and can claim 3lb this time. The ground is my only issue. He ideally wants better ground. It was officially soft at Doncaster, but it was the first race on the first day of the meeting and it was like a carpet. At Ayr it will be the third day of the meeting, and it could be a bit chewed up.

Iain Jardine, trainer of Never Dark and Jump The Gun
Jump The Gun ran well in the race last year. He was very unlucky as he didn’t get any sort of run. He’s a few pounds better off at the weights, and goes to Ayr on the back of a real good run at Doncaster. Never Dark is also in great form. He ran well in the Bronze Cup a couple of years ago. If he switches off early on I could see him running a big race too.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Saturday previews:

1.30 Newbury: 'We need to get a run into her' - can anyone stop high-class Sense Of Duty on belated comeback?

2.30 Ayr: 'He's a fine, big horse who we like' - which of the Ballydoyle brigade can resume their Beresford domination?

3.00 Ayr: 'I find it odd she's such a short-price favourite but I hope the market is right' - key quotes for the Firth of Clyde

3.15 Newbury: 'I just don't know whether this ground will suit him' - who will handle testing conditions best in Mill Reef?

3.35 Ayr: 'This really should be his day and he's got a great chance' - top trainers on their Ayr Gold Cup hopefuls