'He's on a roll and I'd be very, very sweet on his chances' - who will follow in the footsteps of Paddington?

It may be hard to fathom, but last year Paddington was 6-4 to defy a mark of 97 in this handicap on his reappearance.

He obliged in emphatic fashion and went on to win the Irish 2,000 Guineas, the St James's Palace Stakes, the Eclipse and the Sussex Stakes during a stellar season, before ending his racing career with a rating of 124. He was some certainty off 97.

Given this race was Paddington's stepping stone to stardom, all eyes will be on Aidan O'Brien's Military this year. He arrives on a mark of 100, 3lb higher than last year's winner, and also has an entry in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. 

He was a decisive winner of a Naas maiden on his debut at 2-7, and was favourite for his next two starts in Group 3s. He didn't win either but showed enough to suggest he might develop into a nice three-year-old. 

But a word of warning if you fancy Military. Paddington is the only favourite to have won this premier handicap in the last decade and there has been a 33-1 winner and two at 12-1 in that time. 

O'Brien had four beaten favourites in a row before Paddington came along: West Coast (2022), Duke Of Mantua (2021), Hong Kong (2020) and San Andreas (2019).

This looks a deep handicap, though, and Aidan's son Donnacha, who won the race as a jockey on Never No More in 2019, is represented by the unexposed Guildenstern. 

He bumped into Diego Velazquez on his debut but outran his 80-1 odds by finishing second and handled testing conditions well to win a 7f maiden at Leopardstown in October. The sixth horse home there, Rocking Tree, was beaten more than a dozen lengths and is now rated 83, which suggests Guildenstern might not be badly handicapped on 92. 

Bid For Chester is a tough and consistent sort for Mick Mulvany, while My Mate Alfie has plenty of solid form on slow ground. Take Me To Church will have a fitness edge on some having won at Dundalk 44 days ago and arrives chasing a hat-trick.

Ground and weather

It's heavy ground at Naas after 4mm of rain since declarations but the track is now fit for racing having been waterlogged earlier in the week. There is a possibility of 4mm-9mm of rain before racing, according to Met Eireann, and conditions will continue to be monitored.

What they say 

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Military
He's got a lot of weight and the ground will probably be softer than ideal for him. We're going to learn a lot more about him here, but he seems in good form and everybody seems to be very happy with him.

Donnacha O'Brien, trainer of Guildenstern
He's wintered well and his work has been good. Obviously, it's his first run of the year, so I'd imagine there is a bit of improvement in him. We think he'll handle the ground without loving it and we're hopeful of a good run.

Mick Mulvany, trainer of Bid For Chester
It’s his first run of the season but he has got plenty of work done and we are hoping for a good run. He did run well at Naas last season a couple of times and we were finding out a little bit about him along the way with each run last year. We think he's a good horse, so we're hoping he can run well.

Jack Davison, trainer of Take Me To Church
He's on a roll and I'd be very, very sweet on his chances. He's got form on this sort of ground and he's a very honest horse too.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Sluice
We're hoping for a good run from her and she's run well in the past with some juice in the ground. We would have liked a better draw, but hopefully she can run a nice race on her reappearance.

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