'He's been kept fresh for this' - key quotes and analysis for the Grade 2 Silver Trophy

The quick route to solving a race like the Silver Trophy would be to identify progressive novices and prominent racers. The problem in this running is that it is replete with both, yet there is not a lot of overlap between the two groups.

The closest is last month's Greatwood Gold Cup runner-up Gemirande, who has everything you could ask for in his profile except course form. Recent improvement has come at Southwell, Sandown, Wetherby and Newbury – all much flatter tracks than Cheltenham. The strength of his form probably outweighs this factor, as the former is tangible while the course issue is more of an unknown than a concern.

His rivals for the lead would include fellow novice Unanswered Prayers – who has not gone on from winning a somewhat weak novice handicap for the track in November – as well as old stagers like Cilaos Emery, Presentandcounting, Captain Tom Cat, Zhiguli and the redoubtable Coole Cody.

The last-named needs little introduction but it is worth noting that he is not as regressive as you might infer from recent runs. He was almost certainly targeted at the Plate here last month, and while he finished eighth he was only beaten around 11 lengths. Look at those who finished ahead of him: Seddon, Fugitif, Shakem Up'Arry, Gevrey, Haut En Couleurs, Il Ridoto and So Scottish. Any of those would likely be favouirite for this race.

As it is, the favourite is Heltenham. He shares with Gemirande a steeply progressive profile built up at mostly flat tracks. He had Super Six and Zhiguli well behind him at Newbury last time, when Harry Skelton felt confident enough to wait until after the last to press the button. Although there is a 12lb swing relative to both of those horses, Heltenham ought to confirm the form so long as he takes to the track with which he nearly shares his name.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Caribean Boy
He goes there in good shape and seems well. He's had a wind operation since his last start, he's nice and fresh and the better ground might help him.

Evan Williams, trainer of Coole Cody
He ran a great race in the Plate and if he’s able to run to that form it could be interesting. It will be tough with some younger and less exposed horses in there but he did run very well last time.

Oliver Greenall, joint-trainer of Herbiers
He’s improved for going over fences and likes better ground. He’s had a good season and hopefully can continue going the right way.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Gemirande
He just missed the cut for the festival so this is his second chance to go to Cheltenham. The drying ground shouldn't be an inconvenience and hopefully he'll run well.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Heltenham
He’s very progressive and I’d give him a good chance if he runs. We'll check the ground to make sure it’s safe for him – as he’s getting older and stronger he’s coping with better ground but any moisture in the ground would be a positive. Good, good to soft should be fine.

Chris Gordon, trainer of Unanswered Prayers
He bled last time, so we’re hoping it doesn’t happen again and he’s shown no signs of it since. He goes there in very good form. He’s a winner around there and goes on better ground.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Super Six
I’m hoping he can bounce back. It was a bit too soft for him at Newbury last time and this better ground will suit him.

Alan King, trainer of Deyrann De Carjac
The more the ground dries, the better. Deyrann De Carjac has been kept fresh for the Silver Trophy and is in good form after a winter break. He's run some decent races at Cheltenham this season and should go well provided there's no more rain.

Wednesday previews:

2.25 Newmarket: 'He should have a leading chance' - who is fancied to defy a rise in the weights?    

3.00 Newmarket: Smart Charlie Appleby duo clash with Derby hopeful Intinso - but could there be a surprise party-crasher?    

3.35 Newmarket: Can Coppice stamp her ticket for the 1,000 Guineas and give Frankie Dettori another farewell Classic hope?    

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