'He should have a leading chance' - who is fancied to defy a rise in the weights?

It can be a bit of a fool's errand to try to pin down where the field will race down the Rowley Mile, especially the far side course in use for the Craven meeting. The good news is it may not matter that much and this race has stood as testament to that.

The percentage call is the field will race towards the near rail. That has been the way in two of the last three runnings, but the expected bias towards those nearest that rail, in the higher stalls, has not materialised. The winners were drawn three of 12 and two of 15.

It seems that difficulty comes not from where you are drawn, but where you race. Prominent racers do well on the Rowley Mile and that applies to this race. Every winner going back to 2016 raced close up.

Expect a number of these to sharpen up for the run. Interest is likely to focus on the improving types, plus horses like Equiano Springs who boasts a perfect four-from-four record on the Rowley Mile and is likely to have had this race at the forefront of his connections' plans.

Aleezdancer is the early favourite after stepping up to win at Doncaster 17 days ago. He has earned a rise for that while Orazio, Aphelios and Leap Abroad are all four-year-olds who have not yet had the chance to show they have improved in 2023. While Orazio has run in the calendar year, that was in January and it was his first run since he was sent off 15-2 for the 2021 Gimcrack Stakes.

Aphelios represents some powerful formlines and has the physique of one who should keep improving. Leap Abroad has not been seen since last June, when he won on the July course ahead of a horse (Lethal Levi) who won a heritage handicap over the same course and distance next time and ended the season rated 13lb higher. Leap Abroad is just 1lb higher now.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Adam Ryan, son of and assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Aleezdancer
He was very impressive at Doncaster. He loves easier ground and it should be fine for him at Newmarket. He's had a big hike in the weights but the way he won last time that wouldn't have stopped him so he should have a leading chance.

Alan O'Keefe, assistant to Jennie Candlish, trainer of Probe
He made a nice start for us and came from an impossible position to win at Wolverhampton. He had form over a mile in Ireland but he shows plenty of speed at home and six furlongs with plenty of cut should be ideal. We're aiming him at a £100,000 handicap there in three weeks so it will be good to give him a run on the track.

Martin Dixon of the Horse Watchers, owners of Aphelios
He's done plenty of work and is fit and well. He should handle some ease in the ground, although that is a slight unknown. He was a progressive handicapper last year with some strong form and we hope he can carry on improving.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Orazio
He had an injury last year but we've been patient. He went to Kempton in January and came out of that well. He's pretty unexposed – he was third in a Listed race as a two-year-old and wasn't quite right in the Gimcrack that year.

Mike Prince, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, owners of Leap Abroad
This is a good place to start. We had to back off him at the end of last year due to bone bruises but it was nothing serious, he has a progressive profile and we're hoping for a good year with him.
Reporting by David Carr

Wednesday previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: 'He's been kept fresh for this' - key quotes and analysis for the Grade 2 Silver Trophy   

3.00 Newmarket: Smart Charlie Appleby duo clash with Derby hopeful Intinso - but could there be a surprise party-crasher?   

3.35 Newmarket: Can Coppice stamp her ticket for the 1,000 Guineas and give Frankie Dettori another farewell Classic hope?   

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