'He always runs well there' - Is A Sure Welcome the one to beat at Windsor?

Monday: 6.40 Windsor
Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap | 5f | 4yo+ | Sky

The real track specialist among these is A Sure Welcome. A two-time course-and-distance winner, the eight-year-old has recorded eight of his nine best Racing Post Ratings here, and his most recent victory last July was off a 4lb higher mark than he’ll be running off this time.

A Sure Welcome has drawn the outside stall in this field. Windsor, as we know, is a figure-of-eight, but the sprint course is a slight dogleg right, meaning high numbers are sometimes forced to run that bit further than the rest of the field.

Is stall nine curtains? Not necessarily according to Topdraw’s recent figures which actually have the high numbers ahead, and there was a 13-runner course-and-distance handicap this month where the first three home were drawn nine or higher.

More of a concern for A Sure Welcome is that the pace is likely to be on the other side, meaning he will likely have to pass most of the field to win this.

Trainer Clive Cox has a fair shout with Get It, who is well housed in stall four.

Cox is renowned for doing well with his young speedsters, but he has a 29 per cent strike-rate with his older sprinters at this distance this year, adding to a 43 per cent strike-rate with such runners in 2021.

Get It produced a career-best RPR when winning at Bath this month, and the gelding operation seems to have worked.
Race analysis by James Hill

What they say

Stuart Kittow, trainer of Beyond Equal
I’m not sure whether an easy five is his best distance, but he’s ready for a run again. He scoped badly after Newmarket so we’ve had to give him a bit of a break, but he’s in good form again now. We just wanted to get qualified for the final.

Clive Cox, trainer of Get It
He won nicely at Bath with a little bit of confidence, but didn’t appear to handle the track next time at Newmarket. I hope conditions stay dry as he’ll appreciate that.

John Spearing, trainer of A Sure Welcome
We were very pleased with his run last time. He’ll come on again and always runs well at Windsor.

Simon Hodgson, trainer of Just That Lord
I’m hoping we don’t get rain because he wants pretty quick ground. He ran very well first time at Epsom after a long break, but was a little bit disappointing at Nottingham. He’s an older horse and sometimes it’s not straightforward with them, but we’re very hopeful of a big run. William [Carver] got a right tune out of him when he won there and he’s only 1lb higher.
Race reporting by Charlie Huggins

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