Can Nicholls make it nine wins in Wincanton's Elite Hurdle with the race-fit Rubaud?

It’s easy to look at this race and think Paul Nicholls wins it every year, but that isn’t true. He has won it eight times but only two of those victories have come in the last ten years and he has saddled 12 runners in that period, so his recent record isn’t anything out of the ordinary.

Nevertheless, Rubaud is a warm order to give the trainer a ninth victory and he looks the right type for the race. He is an improving second-season hurdler who comes here with a run behind him, just like the Nicholls-trained Knappers Hill last year. So will fitness win out?

A recent run has definitely been preferable in recent years and Rubaud comes here having won the same Listed hurdle at Kempton that Verdana Blue (2018) and Sceau Royal (2021) had landed en route to their wins in the race. He therefore ticks plenty of boxes on trends.

Rubaud had Hansard 15 lengths behind when the pair finished first and fifth in the Dovecote at Kempton in February, but Hansard is 6lb better off at the weights and didn’t appear to be at his best that day. He was 22lb better on RPRs when fourth in a Grade 1 at Aintree next time.

However, that Grade 1 novice form has not worked out so far. The runner-up Strong Leader, third Luccia, and fifth Pembroke have been beaten four times between them since, and the only winner to come out of the race is sixth-placed Matata, who landed a novice handicap chase at Ffos Las last month.

Rubaud evidently has the edge over his market rival on form in a race that will probably develop into a match. West Balboa is the only other one who would have any chance and her preferred entry on Saturday is at Aintree.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Rubaud
He's an improving young horse with a bright future and has plenty in his favour after a classy success at Kempton on his seasonal debut in a Listed event last month, when he gave weight to all his rivals. He continues to work stylishly at home and is at his best going right-handed on a flat track like Wincanton. I've left off the hood he has worn on his last three starts because he doesn't need it anymore. The ground should be fine for him and he has a lovely chance. He could well be taking on Constitution Hill at Kempton over Christmas.

Gary Moore, trainer of Hansard
He goes well fresh. It doesn’t look an easy race with a couple of decent ones in there, but he’s ready to start his season off. He won’t mind the ground as he’s pretty versatile in that regard so there won’t be any excuses on that score.

Dan Skelton, trainer of West Balboa and Sacre Coeur
West Balboa will run at Aintree rather than Wincanton – we only put her in this in case Aintree was off. Sacre Coeur deserves to take her chance.
Reporting by David Milnes

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