Can anyone stop Aidan O'Brien's recent domination of the Dee Stakes?

2.15 Chester
tote+ Biggest Dividends At tote.co.uk Dee Stakes (Listed) | 1m2½f | 3yo | ITV4/Sky

It's 18 years since Kris Kin won the Dee Stakes prior to winning the Derby and it would take a brave punter to suggest the rot will stop with the class of 2021, with the first three in the betting causing no more than a ripple in the Derby market.

Predicting where Aidan O'Brien's chief Derby contender will come from has become a lot harder than used to be the case. Four of his first five Epsom winners either ran in the Derrinstown at Leopardstown or 2,000 Guineas but the last three came from the Chester Vase, Lingfield Derby Trial and a Curragh maiden.

Two of O'Brien's Epsom heroes ran in the Vase, but his Dee Stakes winners, eight in all and six in the last years, have not fared so well.

Between them they won only eight of their next 40 starts and the two best winners dropped down in trip for their next successes, Magician taking the Irish 2,000 Guineas in 2013 and Circus Maximus the St James's Palace two years ago.

O'Brien is represented by Ontario, who is not favourite despite his trainer's record and the fact he is officially the best horse in the race.

Maximal (nearside): runs for Sir Michael StouteCredit: Billselwyn

He is the only one of the market's top three not to have tried as far as 1m2f, but that only adds to his appeal given both Yibir and Maximal have and both were beaten.

One place behind Guineas fourth Naval Crown when third in the 7f Free Handicap, he won over 1m½f on soft ground last year and the Galileo colt's future surely lies over this sort of trip.

Yibir gets first-time cheekpieces for Charlie Appleby, but he had it pretty much his own way in the Sandown Classic Trial last month and could still manage only third to a rank outsider.

However, with Sir Michael Stoute's Maximal rated only 92 and the lightly raced Foxes Tail having won much the weaker division of a Newbury maiden last month (more than a second slower than Snow Lantern's division), it would be no surprise if the market focused solely on the front two by race time.

Seven from nine for O'Brien looks the most likely result and the market may well reflect that by then too.
Race analysis by Paul Kealy

A race with a rich and varied history

The Dee Stakes might be viewed as the least reliable of Chester's three Classic trials this century, but that should not put off any stargazers from watching with interest.

While the Chester Vase and Cheshire Oaks have supplied five Classic winners at Epsom between them since 2000, the Dee, which shares top billing on day two of the May meeting with the Ormonde Stakes, has provided just one.

Named after the river running alongside the racecourse, some Derby aspirations may have been sunk but the Dee still has a glittering, if somewhat varied, past.

Take the most recent running in 2019 as a case in point. The winner Circus Maximus could only manage sixth in the Derby, but proved a revelation over a mile with victories in the St James's Palace and Prix du Moulin later in the year.

Circus Maximus: 2019 Dee Stakes winner went on to thrive over a mileCredit: Edward Whitaker

Finishing last of six behind Circus Maximus that day was Grade 1 winning chaser Allmankind in his former life as a Flat performer. The jumps link in a race once won by subsequent Grand National hero Voluptuary in 1881 does not end there, as popular dual-purpose star Not So Sleepy – a leading contender for Friday's Chester Cup – was successful six years ago.

Classic clues have still been provided in recent years with Magician (2013) going on to win the Irish 2,000 Guineas and Cliffs Of Moher (2017) only just denied by stablemate Wings Of Eagles in the Derby.

The winner might not be cut straight into Derby favouritism but, if history is any guide, they'll be sure worth following in the future.

Appleby gives vote of confidence to Yibir

Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby aims to continue his good record in the spring trials with Yibir, who is fitted with cheekpieces for the first time.

The Dubawi colt finished a close third in Sandown's Classic Trial last month and as a brother to Oaks runner-up Wild Illusion, he possesses the right pedigree for Epsom, for which he is a 25-1 chance.

"We were happy with his first run as three-year-old at Sandown," said Appleby. "We're applying the cheekpieces just to help his concentration.

"From what we've seen from him at home, he's going to be very competitive. I'm not too worried about the ground at this stage."

Yibir (left): finished third at Sandown last timeCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Epic battles between Coolmore and Godolphin have lit up racecourses the world over but they have been in short supply at Chester.

The darker shade of blue has monopolised the track's Classic trials including the Dee Stakes, a race Aidan O'Brien has won six of the last eight runnings and eight times in total.

O'Brien has put his faith in Ontario to provide him with victory number nine. The Galileo colt has only managed to win once in eight starts, but finished a close second in the Royal Lodge and was third in the Free Handicap on his seasonal debut.

"He had a run at Newmarket and this is a step up in trip for him so that will be interesting to see," said O'Brien. "We always thought he'd get a mile and a quarter."

What the rest say

Johnny Murtagh, trainer of Earlswood
We will learn two things. How he travels over to England and if he's good enough for this level. He's still in the Derby, so we'll see. The ground will be nicer than Navan wa but he won't mind a bit of cut in the ground.

Roger Varian, trainer of El Drama
The horse is training really nicely and I think he’ll be better suited by getting back on grass. It’s likely to be soft ground which will suit and his pedigree suggests he should get the trip although you never know with Lope De Vega’s as they have pace. If he does get the trip we’re hopeful he’ll run a very nice race. We’ve always rated this colt, he’s run two fair races but we hope there is better to come.

Roger Varian: trainer of El DramaCredit: Edward Whitaker

Alastair Donald, racing manager for King Power Racing, owners of Foxes Tales
We were encouraged by his win over a mile at Newbury and we think this step up in trip will suit him. Hopefully, he can enjoy better fortune than Fox Chairman, who won the same race before being an unlucky loser in this a couple of years ago.

Henry Spiller, trainer of Luther Cee
He won a maiden in France last year and he's nearly sixteen and a half hands, so he was never going to be a two-year-old. To even break his maiden was good. He's done very well physically over the winter. It's a big ask for his first run in 246 days but a bit of ease in the ground will suit him.

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to Juddmonte, owners of Maximal
He's come out of Newbury very well, where he ran a decent race over a mile and a quarter. It looks like a competitive running and it will tell us where we are. I think he'll handle the track all right, but we're going into the unknown with the ground.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

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