Fourteen or more Willie Mullins winners at 20-1? I'm having some of that

The first four-day Cheltenham Festival was in 2005 and Howard Johnson was crowned top trainer with three winners. Paul Nicholls was top dog the following year with the same amount. Three was again the magic number for the Ditcheat dynamo in 2008, as it was for Nicky Henderson in 2010.

If Willie Mullins trains three winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, there will be an internal investigation at Closutton afterwards to figure out what went so spectacularly wrong. He would be afraid to show his face in public for weeks for fear of ridicule. It would be a horror show, not just for him but for punters.

The good news for all concerned, and the stark news for everyone else, is that it won't happen. There is more chance of Frank Lampard replacing Pep Guardiola at Manchester City in March than there is of Mullins coming away from this year's festival with three winners or fewer. Paddy Power have priced it up for me – 50-1.