Don't get bogged down by ground and weight - class is often the deciding factor in jump racing

The easiest thing a racing fan can do is read the form book. It's all there for everyone to see and there really aren't too many secrets, but the problem for punters is that everyone is capable of doing that, so in order to stay one step ahead of the bookmakers it's a good idea to think outside the box.

That doesn't necessarily mean being too radical just for the sake of it. Most of the time it's just using your eyes and your brain and not adhering to the principles that everyone else seems to think are the way to dissect a race. There are a couple of them doing the rounds at the moment that make no sense to me but are taken as read by most racing fans, including the idea that lower-weighted horses are the ones to be on when the ground gets heavy over staying trips.

For example, the Eider Chase has always seemed to me the biggest stamina test of any race anywhere in Britain and Ireland. It's run over 4m½f in February, when invariably the ground is at its worst, at Newcastle, which is a stiff track. If most racing fans are to be believed you would expect lower-weighted horses to dominate, but have a look at the results. Since the start of the millennium the race has been run 19 times and on only three occasions has the winner carried less than 11st.