Weight-for-age change could put Grand Prix in pole position as Arc indicator

It is a very big weekend for sifting Europe's middle-distance three-year-olds, with Derbys in Ireland and Germany set to test the credentials of the Epsom and Chantilly versions.

Among the older generation, the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud promises to be no less informative with a view to the autumn championship races, most notably of course the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

The Grand Prix has produced eight horses who went on to be placed in the Arc – although no winners – in the 12 editions since the Classic generation was excluded in 2005.

But with the announcement last September that the European Pattern Committee would be shaving a pound (half a kilogram) off the weight-for-age allowance received by three-year-olds in 2017, the emergence of genuinely top-class older horses could be set to take on added significance.

Providing as it does the climax to the first half of the season in France for this division, the Grand Prix could be set to assume greater prominence in setting the table for the Arc.

Here are some of the historical pointers to why it is potentially crucial stepping stone to Europe's greatest prize:

Sixty-one per cent of the principals turn up in October

Novellist and Ryan Moore (blue sleeves) hold off Melbourne Cup hero Dunaden to land the 2013 Grand Prix de Saint-CloudCredit: Scoop Dyga

In the period since 2005, 22 out of the 36 horses who have finished in the first three in the Grand Prix then went on to contest the Arc later the same year.

While it should be far from a surprise that trainers and owners of the top older middle-distance horses should have both races on their radar, it is still a striking statistic.

Of the 12 winners over the period, only four didn't take their chance in the Arc:

2013 Novellist went on from Saint-Cloud to claim the King George at Ascot three weeks later and was challenging for Arc favouritism when injury ruled him out in the week of the race.

2009 Spanish Moon was saved for the Breeders' Cup Turf and Hong Kong

2007 Mountain High ran his final race in the Grosser Preis von Baden and didn't make the Arc.

2005 Alkaased won the Japan Cup

Youmzain: Patron Saint of the Grand Prix

Youmzain ran in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud four timesCredit: Racingfotos

Jaber Abdullah's extraordinary campaigner may principally be remembered for his three second-placed efforts in the Arc itself, but trainer Mick Channon never missed a shot at the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.

Youmzain ran in four consecutive editions, finishing with a record of 4-1-3-2.

In 2008 the son of Sinndar reversed Coronation Cup form to defeat Soldier of Fortune (the pair went on to be second and third in the Arc behind Zarkava), while two years later the then seven-year-old went down by just a nose to Plumania.

A more recent example of a similar trend is provided by Flintshire, who finished out of the placings when sent off the 13-8 favourite in 2014 before chasing home Treve in 2015. Both years Andre Fabre then produced the Dansili colt in top form to be runner-up in the Arc

The impact of the reduction on the weight-for-age allowance

The 'plight' of the older horses when confronting their three-year-old rivals in the Arc was most obvious during the extended period of the 1990s and early 2000s when Classic colts dominated the race.

But since Rail Link's defeat of Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud heroine Pride in the 2006 Arc – the tenth three-year-old colt to win the Arc in 12 editions – success has been more evenly spread.

Pride and Christophe Lemaire get up on the line to defeat Hurricane Run in a pulsating 2006 Grand Prix de Saint-CloudCredit: Scoop Dyga

The score in the last decade is six wins to four in favour of the three-year-olds, while Solemia, Treve and Found have all struck at four in the last five years.

In pure weights and measures terms, you can argue that both Nakayama Festa (runner-up to Workforce in 2010) and Pride would have won their Arc under the revised weight-for-age terms.

But it is also possible to argue that several of the recent three-year-old winners of the Arc were head and shoulders above their generational rivals and thus not representative of a wider dominance of that age group.

Put simply, Zarkava, Sea The Stars, Treve and probably Golden Horn would have been champions in any era and, in retrospect, the chances of any older horse being able to give them weight and a beating were virtually non-existent.

On the day the changes were announced, Andre Fabre told the Racing Post: "I know that a lot of people have complained in the past that there is an unfair advantage to the three-year-olds but it is my feeling that only the very best horses win these all age races. Once they have, they tend to get retired and then you are left with second rank older horses."

While 1lb may not seem like much it could be that, in years that lack an outstanding three-year-old candidate, it will be enough to bring the older horses right back into calculations for the Arc.

Mention of Pride brings to mind her epic defeat of Hurricane Run in the final strides of the 2006 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, one of the best editions of the race in the modern era.

Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud: three great performances

2004 Gamut

Kieren Falllon pushes Gamut out to a three length success in the 2004 Grand Prix de Saint-CloudCredit: Aprh

A timely selection in the week that Ballymacoll Stud was sold at auction. Keieren Fallon always had the son of Spectrum on the heels of the leaders and went for home turning in to record a three length verdict over Policy Maker.

2011 Sarafina

An unlucky third when almost brought down in Worforce's Arc, Sarafina possessed a searing turn of foot on her best days. She certainly needed it when Cirrus Des Aigles opened what appeared to be a decisive lead, before Christophe Lemaire unleashed his charge to make up three lengths in the final furlong.

2015 Treve

Criquette Head-Maarek had never won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, although of course she had never trained a horse like Treve before. On fast ground that she arguably was never completely comfortable on, Treve defeated Flintshire by an easy length and a quarter.

Thierry Jarnet and Treve streak to victory in the 2015 Grand Prix de Saint-CloudCredit: Scoop Dyga