Tom Segal's five ways to make ante-post betting work for you

In an extract from the Racing Post Betting Guide – available to buy now from racingpost.com/shop, priced at £14.99 – the man they call Pricewise reveals his top tips for beating the bookies before the day of the race.

There was a time when ante-post betting was a huge part of the industry.

The Derby was named after an ante-post wager ­between the Earl of Derby and Sir Charles Bunbury in 1780, while one of racing’s hall-of-fame trainers, Barry Hills, got his career started when landing a huge gamble on Frankincense in the 1968 Lincoln.

Many punters will remember the Nashwan story when the lads in Lambourn were queuing up to use the telephone boxes in the high street to back him for the Guineas and Derby after an incredible piece of work.

None of that was possible for a good 20 years afterwards with bookmakers wary of laying any horse for decent money and, as a ­result, ante-post betting went completely out of fashion.

Of course, bookmakers will never allow a Nashwan situation to ­occur again but there is strong evidence that ante-post betting is ­having a bit of a resurgence and amazingly it’s the bookmakers who are responsible.

If we consider an ante-post bet to a wager placed before the declarations are known then all of a sudden we are in a golden period for small-scale ante-post punters. The bookmakers are pricing up every televised race at the five-day stage and are using punters to shape the market for them.

Consequently, the five-day stage is where punters can find the best value because it is then that we find the untouched market and big prices about horses that end up being backed off the boards.

Contrast that to bets placed on the morning of the race. Those punting at that time are always going to struggle to find a value bet. All the midweek punters have sorted out the overpriced horses and have backed them accordingly, while the bigger prices are out there because no one fancies them.

There is a proviso, though. There is always a proviso, and that is staking because ante-post punters will be limited to how much they can get on. However, having a bet with five or six different bookies racks up quickly and, in the exchange era, you can quickly find yourself in a great position, whether you are a punter that likes to let things ride or one of those trading types.

Throw in non-runner, no-bet concessions at the Cheltenham ­Festival and the Grand National and it really isn’t hard for a punter to beat the price these days. The problem is getting one over the line in front, but as a keen ante-post punter, I would say that now is as good a time as any to start considering betting before the declarations are known.

Five ways to bet smart ante-post

The price must be right

The only point to ante-post betting is securing a bigger price than you would on the day. Why risk your stake, days, weeks or months before the race if you can’t be sure that you are beating the market?

Consequently, in the modern age where the on-the-day ­bookmakers are vying for your business and tend to find their betting percentages by pushing out those at the front of the market, there is simply no point in playing at short prices ante-post. You might not beat the price and you have all the risks that come with betting ante-post.

In fact, it’s best to make a rule as to what is an acceptable price for the risk involved and stick to it. I rarely bet ante-post unless the horse concerned is a double-figure price or I’m supremely confident that the market has got it wrong on a shorter priced one.

Choose right race with an opposable favourite

The big key to ante-post betting is finding the right horse for the right race. What I mean by that is we can all find a horse we like but if their big-race target is in a highly competitive race where there is a rock-solid favourite, then stepping in early might not be the right play.

Try to find the race where it’s pretty obvious that those at the head of the market are the weakest, or where you are betting into a market that hasn’t been formed properly yet.

Immediately you have found the value and the potential for your horse to crash in price, which in essence is the whole point of ante-post betting.

Trying to take on Kauto Star in the King George was a total waste of time, effort and money. There are plenty of races where the market is made up on reputation rather than form. Assessing the strength of the opposition is a key component to a good ante-post bet – it’s just as important as assessing the worth of any particular horse.

Timing is the key

The one big advantage ante-post betting has over betting on the day is timing.

On the day the bookmakers know when we are going to bet. They have all the runners – normally a lot more information than most punters – and the market is always in their favour.

Ante-post betting is the opposite – bookmakers have no clue when you are going to bet or what the make-up of the field is going to be. Time is on your side and therefore make sure the timing of your bet is correct.

For example, it’s rarely a great idea to back a horse ante-post in the days before he or she is due to run in a trial for the race you fancy them in.

You won’t be the only one to have noticed and mathematically it often makes more sense to back it in the trial and then accept a smaller price in the big race with the extra knowledge you have gleaned from its trial run.

In terms of the big handicaps on the Flat and Jumps, the unveiling of the weights is often a good day to consider having a bet.

For example Tiger Roll was available at 20-1 to win his second Grand National in 2019 when the weights were announced, but was 6-1 after he had won the cross-country at the Cheltenham Festival.

Well-backed favourite Tiger Roll claims his second consecutive Grand NationalCredit: Edward Whitaker

However, the best edge for ante-post punters is on the Tuesday and Wednesday every week. The bookmakers price up all the televised Saturday races and it is you versus an odds compiler at that stage.

A one-on-one match. Come the morning of the day of the race it’s you versus thousands of others who have had a look and any value would be gone. Of course winning is still possible but to do so you have to be less price-sensitive than used to be the case.

Put yourself in the mind of the trainers

Trainers are creatures of habit. They like to repeat processes that have worked well for them in the past and ante-post punters can take advantage by studying their methods and asking why a trainer is running a horse in a certain race.

For example, John Gosden likes using trial races. He hates going into a Classic or a big race without his horse having had the ideal ­preparation, so when the entries come out for the Dante or the Voltiguer, for example, we can use that as a way into his mind.

That doesn’t mean we back all of his horses entered in those races for the Derby or the St Leger, but we do get a clue about how highly he rates those horses.

Similarly if he enters a three-year-old in the Cambridgeshire we can be pretty sure that he thinks they are well-handicapped potential Group horses. The easy victories of Halling, Pipedreamer and Wissahickon prove that.

Wissahickon enhanced John Gosden's excellent Cambridgeshire record last yearCredit: Edward Whitaker

Furthermore, using stable tours and listening to what trainers say before and after races gives vital clues too.

It’s no different over jumps. Try thinking like Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson. Why have they chosen to run this horse in that race, have they done it before, is it the perfect time span between this race and a big target coming up?

The best trainers have a plan for their best horses and if we can cotton on to what that plan is we are not one step ahead of the game we are three, four or maybe more.

Use all the concessions at the Cheltenham Festival

There is no doubt that the Cheltenham Festival is now the biggest ante-post race meeting in the world and it provides a great opportunity for punters. The reason being, the non-runner, no-bet concession that some bookmakers start months in advance of the meeting.

The main problem with any ante-post bet, and the reason why it isn’t more popular, is the worry about not getting a run for your money. That is taken out of the equation at Cheltenham and in races like the Grand National. Basically, the non-runner, no-bet gives punters the ability to back horses at big prices without any concern.

Furthermore, there are so many races at the festival where horses hold many entries and trying to establish the one they intend to run in is a matter of guesswork. That is irrelevant with the non-runner, no-bet concessions because we know we can back our horse in as many races as we like.

Expert view

All winning bets are fun, but some are more fun than others, and anyone who has backed the winner of one of the big races of the season at a big price, well in advance of the day, will know exactly what I mean.

Yes, a 10-1 winner of a Thirsk handicap or a Fontwell novice hurdle pays exactly the same as a 10-1 winner of the Derby, the Ebor or the Champion Hurdle, but in terms of satisfaction and self-esteem there is no comparison.

Since the advent of exchanges the punting narrative has all been about chiselling out a profit in any way possible and that is all well and good but betting should be all about fun and there is nothing like landing a big-priced ante-post bet for that.

The point being that any ante-post bet is simply about your own personal judgement of a good horse. If like me you are a racing fan first and a punter second, then a winning ante-post bet is satisfying on both counts. It’s you versus the bookmaker at the basest level – it’s why we watch racing day in day out and it’s our chance to make all the thinking time we have put into the sport worthwhile.

We won’t be able to set up training like Hills did on the back of an ante-post coup – and getting on for any significant amount is difficult – but on-the-day betting in the exchange era can feel like a bit of a grind. Ante-post betting never does and there is nothing like a ­successful wager for the punting soul.

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