2023 July Cup at Newmarket: assessing the top contenders for Saturday's big race
The July Cup (4.35 Newmarket, Saturday) takes place this weekend and a top-class bunch of sprinters look set to fight it out in this Group 1 contest. Here we go through the form of the leading contenders and produce an early verdict on who will come out on top.
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Shaquille
Form: 11-111
Strengths: A winner of six of his seven starts, and a perfect 5-5 over six furlongs, the latest success coming in the Commonwealth Cup where he overcame a slow start to run down Little Big Bear.
Unlikely to have reached the ceiling of his ability and, on Racing Post Ratings, a repeat of his Commonwealth Cup showing (122) would have been good enough to land four of the last ten renewals of this race.
Weaknesses: Unlikely to get away with another stalls mishap now taking on his elders for the first time.
Odds: 7-4
What they say
Steve Brown, assistant trainer: "We're excited for it. It's natural to be nervous, there's pressure on our shoulders to produce the horse in top condition. That's what we face on a daily basis wherever you are but of course the stakes are much higher in this situation. We've got a bit of everything: nerves, excitement and anticipation, and I'm sure we'll have all those emotions and more on the day."
Azure Blue
Form: 411-11
Strengths: Archetypal Michael Dods filly who arrives on a significant upward career trajectory, building on a pair of Newmarket Listed victories when landing the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes last time out.
Looked a Group 1 horse at York and that form has been franked since, while she was a course-and-distance winner last season so will have no issues with this track.
Weaknesses: Yet to prove herself at the level and an official mark of 114 leaves her with a little to find on these terms.
Odds: 11-4
What they say
Michael Dods, trainer: "It was a big step up today [at York], but there wasn't anything else to go to in the short-term. I knew there was improvement to come and she's shown she's a proper Group 1 horse. Mecca's Angel was all speed, but she's getting that speed now later on in her career."
Kinross
Form: 1113-7
Strengths: Has done most of his racing – and winning – over seven furlongs, but proved himself adept at sprint distances when landing the British Champions Sprint Stakes over 6f at Ascot in October.
Better than the bare result suggests when seventh in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at the royal meeting where he only faded out of contention late on.
Weaknesses: More exposed than most of these rivals and appreciates cut in the ground, so could do with some rainfall in the coming days.
Odds: 5-1
What they say
Jamie McCalmont, racing manager for Marc Chan: “William [Buick] will ride Kinross in the July Cup. William rode one horse for us last year, which was Lezoo when she won the Cheveley Park Stakes. As such, we felt he had to be the go-to jockey for the horses when Frankie was unavailable."
Little Big Bear
Form: 11-012
Strengths: A high-class juvenile who produced a scintillating performance when a seven-length winner of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last August.
His form figures over sprint distances read 2111112, and he represents a stable that has landed two of the last five renewals of this race.
Weaknesses: Reported to be only a 50-50 chance for this race after a bruised foot forced him to miss six days of cantering and, if he does take his chance, he has a length and a quarter to find with Shaquille on their Commonwealth Cup running.
Odds: 6-1
What they say
Aidan O’Brien, trainer: "I'd say it's probably 50-50 whether he will run or not. He will be okay to run, but has he lost too much fitness? And, then we won't know until he runs how much it has affected him. Six days without cantering is a lot."
Khaadem
Form: -06031
Strengths: An admirable seven-year-old who was breaking through at Group 1 level for the first time (at the ninth attempt) when running out a shock 80-1 winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.
A previous course-and-distance winner and finished fourth in this race in 2020, so should not have any issues with the track.
Weaknesses: His Royal Ascot success was a clear career best so he must back it up, while at the age of seven he looks vulnerable to fresher legs.
Odds: 9-1
What they say
Charlie Hills, trainer: "Newmarket should suit him, as long as it's fast ground. I was really impressed with how he travelled [in the Jubilee Stakes] and whoever rides him knows what to do now."
Verdict
Kinross is entitled to take a step forward from his Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes seventh, but unless we receive significant rainfall between now and Saturday this looks set to be fought out between Shaquille and Azure Blue. Slight preference goes to the latter, who arrives on a significant upward curve and looked every inch a future Group 1 winner when landing the Duke of York Stakes last time out.
Read these next:
Who will win the 2023 Pertemps Network July Cup based on previous trends?
Is the July Cup a slam dunk for Shaquille? We assess his Group 1 chances at Newmarket
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