2023 Lexus Melbourne Cup at Flemington: the runners, the odds, the verdict
Vauban has been the horse on everyone's lips and is the hot favourite for the race that stops a nation, the Lexus Melbourne Cup (4am), at Flemington on Tuesday morning. Get the lowdown on all of the Melbourne Cup contenders, including their trainers and jockeys plus big-race odds, in our comprehensive runner-by-runner guide.
2023 Melbourne Cup: the full list of horses for Flemington
1 Gold Trip
Won this last year and defends his title in better form, his win in the Turnbull Stakes three starts back over 1m2f a career best; difficult to pinpoint a reason he won't be a leading player here other than no horse has gone back to back since 2005; James McDonald takes over in the saddle having ridden him once before in the past.
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: James McDonald
Forecast odds: 7-2
Draw: 2
2 Alenquer
Not reached the heights he was capable of when with William Haggas in Britain, where he notably landed the 10.5f Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup in 2022, but showed just enough in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup behind a few of these 11 days ago to suggest he might be capable of a bold showing; ability to stay this trip is definite query and headgear removed but sentiment will be with him, as it's Damien Oliver's final ride in the race.
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Forecast odds: 40-1
Draw: 9
3 Without A Fight
Didn't feature in this last year on unsuitable soft ground when with Simon and Ed Crisford but has been in mainly terrific heart now based in Australia; gained a new career best when landing the Caulfield Cup towards the end of last month and not hard to see him running much better this time if the ground is no worse than good; Mark Zahra, who won this on Gold Trip 12 months ago, sticks with this gelding.
Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Forecast odds: 5-1
Draw: 16
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4 Breakup
Grade 2 winner over 12.5f in Japan; behind a few of these in the Caulfield Cup but that was his first start for 118 days, and far better judged on his performances in the 1m7f Hanshin Daishoten and then the Grade 1 Tenno Sho (Spring) over 2m in the spring, when Kohei Matsuyama was last aboard; Japan continues to land big races on the world stage and although stall 18 seems wide enough, it didn't stop Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka
Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama
Forecast odds: 12-1
Draw: 18
5 Vauban
Grade 1 winning hurdler who remained with plenty of scope for the Flat having not had many starts in that sphere for previous connections, and made a big impact back in this code when landing a 1m6f handicap at Royal Ascot before a 1m4f Group 3 success three months ago at Naas; laid out for this and only potential reason for negativity would be that he's never raced on proper fast ground, if it rides that way.
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Forecast odds: 9-4f
Draw: 3
6 Soulcombe
Has a frustrating habit of being slowly away but little doubt he's maintained his progression since leaving William Haggas, showing an ability to hold his own from around a mile up to 1m5f, albeit he won over 1m6f in Britain; blinkers come off and he has every chance of landing this under Joao Moreira, riding him for the first time, if not forfeiting any significant ground at the start.
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Forecast odds: 13-2
Draw: 4
7 Absurde
Bought from France for 260,000euros after some smart efforts and made a decent impression as a hurdler in a couple of starts; finished second to Vauban in a 1m6f event in June returned to the Flat off level weights, albeit beaten 7.5l, before landing the Ebor from a wide draw when last seen; however, on Royal Ascot form he's not weighted to reverse placings with his stablemate Vauban, nor remain ahead on More Felons on that York run, so needs more.
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Zac Purton
Forecast odds: 16-1
Draw: 8
8 Right You Are
Winner of 10 of his 26 starts and sire and dam ran in this race but he has barely done any racing at Group level, albeit he is 2/2 in Listed company; didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last time and has a decent record at this venue, but little doubt this looks a tough ask against some top-level types.
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: John Allen
Forecast odds: 40-1
Draw: 15
9 Vow And Declare
Won this in 2019 but then went on a long spell without adding to that famous victory, which included being down the field in the 2020 and 2022 running of this; has done better since cheekpieces were added, adding another victory to his profile, and his last two performances have been career bests, so is in much better form this time round; not ruled out.
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Jockey: Billy Egan
Forecast odds: 20-1
Draw: 19
10 Cleveland
NON-RUNNER
11 Ashrun
Beaten only five lengths in the 2020 Melbourne Cup but wasn't seen after that until September this year due to injury; returned to the track in fine form, though, and his second in the Geelong Cup last time, giving the winner 6lb, shows he's quite capable still of smart efforts; lightly raced for a seven-year-old and no surprise if he puts up a bold showing.
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Forecast odds: 25-1
Draw: 11
12 Daqiansweet Junior
Has no problems staying this distance, as illustrated when a highly respectable sixth in this 12 months ago when carrying 3lb more; this has probably been his target since and he arrives following a good run behind Military Mission in the Herbert Power just over three weeks ago; can give a solid account and is one for a top-ten finish market, but hard to see him winning.
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Forecast odds: 66-1
Draw: 12
13 Okita Soushi
Never featured in the Caulfield Cup last time so you'd have to concentrate on form prior to that to compile a case for him; best two runs have been at Royal Ascot, suggesting there will be no issues with the big event atmosphere, and those came on good to firm, so underfoot conditions won't be an issue; might bounce back for trainer who has won this race twice in the past; has a win over 2m, but does have questions to answer.
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Dylan Gibbons
Forecast odds: 66-1
Draw: 20
14 Sheraz
Nice pedigree and promising type when trained in France but hasn't yet won in Australia and doesn't really have a recent profile to be a leading player here, with stall 22 far from helpful as well.
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Forecast odds: 100-1
Draw: 22
15 Lastotchka
Talented stayer in France whose last run for Jean-Marie Beguigne was a win (and career best) in the Group 3 15.5f Prix Gladiateur; will have no stamina doubts and has a nice low weight to carry, so only questions to answer would be if she can handle really quick ground, presuming going predictions are correct, and make an impact from a wide draw.
Trainer: Mike Price and Michael Kent Jr
Jockey: Craig Williams
Forecast odds: 20-1
Draw: 21
16 Magical Lagoon
2022 Irish Oaks winner for Jessica Harrington, having shown plenty of smart form prior to that, but was mostly struggling to make any impact in Australia from limited starts until a solid enough effort in the Geelong Cup 13 days ago, the first time she'd been back over 1m4f since her Yorkshire Oaks run; her brother has won a 2m4f hurdle and she's certainly one of the more interesting outsiders.
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Forecast odds: 66-1
Draw: 7
17 Military Mission
Started with Hugo Palmer and has graduated out of handicaps for these connections into a Group performer; last three runs have been decent (all at about 1m4f), landing the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes most recently, and can feature in the finish if staying the trip.
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Rachel King
Forecast odds: 25-1
Draw: 5
18 Serpentine
Didn't maintain the level of his 2020 Derby success for Aidan O'Brien and seemed to lose his form completely for a while, with him being beat 99l in this 12 months ago, but signs of a revival since joining the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott stable; has gone from the front so has a good stall to utilise if using those tactics and easy to see him running well; tongue-tie back on.
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Forecast odds: 33-1
Draw: 1
19 Virtuous Circle
Second in the heavy-ground 1m4f Australian Derby earlier this year matched his previous best but recent efforts plus the fact he's not won over further than 7.5f suggest he'll struggle to find his way into a top-sixth place.
Trainer: Liam Howley
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Forecast odds: 50-1
Draw: 6
20 More Felons
Better known to British punters as Scriptwriter, a smart hurdler who finished eighth on final start for Milton Harris behind Absurde in the Ebor; beaten three and a quarter lengths that day when giving Absurde 2lb, so weighted to get ahead of that rival on these terms, solid effort when only half a length behind the first home in the Geelong Cup on Australian debut; stall 24 isn't helpful, however.
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Forecast odds: 25-1
Draw: 24
21 Future History
Started career in France, often showing smart form at around 1m2f, and he won over 12.5f in the Bart Cummings here last month, which secured his entry into this; not beaten far behind Cleveland plus Vow And Declare in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup after, and Hollie Doyle heads down to Australia to take the ride, but whether he'll stay 2m remains to be seen.
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Forecast odds: 16-1
Draw: 13
22 Interpretation
Finished fourth in the 2021 St Leger for Aidan O'Brien but hasn't really progressed since and was pulled up in this contest last year; won a Group 3 handicap at Bendigo last time by a short head and is now weighted to get close to Future History on their Bart Cummings meeting prior to that, but plenty more needed to land a race like this.
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Teodore Nugent
Forecast odds: 66-1
Draw: 17
23 Kalapour
Smart sort in a few races for Michael Halford in 2021 and has run plenty of good efforts for current connections, including when third in the Metropolitan, a Group 1 handicap over 1m4f in September; won the Archer Stakes here from the front on Saturday, so is at least in form, and has place possibilities.
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Forecast odds: 50-1
Draw: 14
24 True Marvel
Has some respectable efforts at long odds, notably when second in the Sydney Cup in April as a 150-1 shot, but his career best came last time when behind a number of these, so has a huge task to get strongly involved in the finish considering he's never won a Listed race let alone a Group event.
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Jockey: Ben Thompson
Forecast odds: 100-1
Draw: 10
Verdict: our top Melbourne Cup betting tip
By David Toft
By this stage of proceedings, it's become more about trying to find reasons why Vauban can't win rather than accentuating the positives of his chances as his claims are obvious. There's every chance he wins this comfortably but his probable starting price is unappealing.
Without A Fight is the Australian-based contender towards the head of the market that appeals most, but there is enough in BREAKUP'S profile to suggest he has sound win and place claims following his lead-in eighth in the Caulfield Cup. He stays and will handle quick ground.
Ashrun is another easy to like, and success for him would be a big story considering injury kept him off the track for so long, while Magical Lagoon is one of the more interesting ones at longer odds.
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Read this next:
'He's just going so well at the moment' - connections on their Melbourne Cup contenders
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Published on 6 November 2023inMelbourne Cup
Last updated 21:00, 6 November 2023
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