Which factors really make a difference in finding the Arc winner?

There are so many different factors and statistics built up around the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.05) that it can seem a daunting race to solve.

Nobody would pretend that a 20-runner field packed with Group 1 talent is straightforward but by concentrating on the key stats you can sort the signal from the noise.

Draw

It cannot be overstated what an advantage a single-figure draw is around Longchamp's mile and a half, although that bias would be almost an iron law on quick ground.

On more testing ground, Sakhee in 2001 (drawn 15 of 17) and Dalakhani in 2003 (14 of 14) defied wide berths.

Since then there have been six wet Arcs, and four of them were won by horses drawn in stall eight or lower, the exceptions being Workforce and Torquator Tasso.

If the rain fails to arrive and the going approaches anything near good to soft, the outlook for horses drawn in double figures becomes even more bleak.

Importance ***

Sex, age and weight

Having gone 15 years between Urban Sea (1993) and Zarkava (2008) without winning the Arc, fillies and mares have enjoyed a purple patch of late, the increased opportunities in sex-restricted races meaning that more of the good ones stay in training.

There are no three-year-old fillies in the field this year, which condenses the weight range of the field. Colts that are four and older carry 9st 5lb, older fillies and mares will be on 9st 2lb (they get 3lb sex allowance) and three-year-old colts 8st 13lb (they get a 6lb age allowance).

Some experts will say no mare (five-year-olds and older) has won the Arc when attempting to discount Alpinista and Grand Glory. The fact is that until that expanded programme was put in place in 2004, very few tried.

Importance *

Experience at a mile and a half

No horse has won the Arc since Saumarez in 1990 on their first try at a mile and a half and this year a much greater number of the leading candidates than in most years fall into the category of unproven at the trip.

Bred to win a Derby, can Luxembourg belatedly thrive at a mile and a half in the Arc?Credit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

That means Luxembourg, Vadeni and Al Hakeem all have to buck that trend. It is surely one that will fall sooner rather than later, given how the racing world is geared much more to mile and a mile-and-a-quarter races, but until that happens it remains a worry.

Just as importantly, you have to go back to Gold River in 1981 to find the last Arc winner who had won at 1m6f or further, which might be bad news for backers of Titleholder, Deep Bond and Stay Foolish.

Importance **

Jockey

Frankie Dettori is the most successful jockey in Arc history with six winners and has twice navigated a wide draw successfully (Sakhee and Golden Horn), so he clearly knows better than most how to negate the disadvantage of Torquator Tasso being drawn in stall 18.

Of the other six winning jockeys in the line-up, Olivier Peslier (Bubble Gift) has won four times and Ryan Moore (Luxembourg) twice.

But Rene Piechulek won on his first try in the race 12 months ago and while it is a matter of taste – Pricewise expert Tom Segal is a big believer in jockey bookings – I personally wouldn't be put off if I fancied Westover or Titleholder, both of whom are being ridden by first-timers in Rob Hornby and Kazuo Yokoyama.

Importance **

Read this next:

2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: the runners, the odds, the verdict

'It's his to lose' – why this horse can win the 2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Who wins the 2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?

Sign up here. New customers only. First single & e/w bet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 4 x £5 bet tokens. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets exclude virtuals. Free bets are non withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions. Further T&Cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org.