Ground remains good at Longchamp ahead of Arc but rain due on Monday and Tuesday

Longchamp enters Arc week with the ground remaining good (8.2 on the GoingStick) but with an uncertain forecast meaning the ground could range between good to soft and very soft come Sunday.

Officials expect 8-10 millimetres of rain during the course of Monday but have relatively low confidence in current predictions of further rain on Tuesday and Friday.

Longchamp's clerk of the course Charles de Cordon said on Monday morning that he was working with an average taken across seven different forecasts in offering the prospect of 2-4 mm of rain on Tuesday - though he could only place 35 per cent confidence in that exact outcome - while there is a one in two chance that the track will get 2-5mm of rain on Friday, ahead of an essentially dry weekend.

"I am working across an average of seven forecasts and you can never be certain what the weather will do," he said. "If we got a lot a lot of rain we could be looking at soft or perhaps very soft ground but no worse.

"The racing line for Sunday has not been used since July 14 and the track was drained a fortnight ago so I am pretty confident that it will ride well."

Longchamp officials do not expect a repeat of the very testing ground enjoyed by Torquator Tasso in 2021Credit: Edward Whitaker

The track escaped with just 5mm of rain over the weekend and is at good to soft (3.4) on the penetrometer, while the GoingStick reading is good.

The rail will be out at 17 metres on Saturday for the first day of the meeting which features the twin Group 1s of the Prix du Cadran and the Prix de Royallieu.

For Arc day itself the rail will be moved back to its innermost line (zero metres), with a five metre cutaway known as the open stretch- in operation for just over two furlongs up the home straight, a feature designed to ease traffic congestion for those in behind.

The last three Arcs have been run on extremely testing ground; in 2019 Waldgeist triumphed on very soft; a year later Sottsass proved strongest on heavy going - the 4.6 penetrometer reading was the highest recorded on the scale since Montjeu's win in 1999 - and Torquator Tasso won 12 months ago on ground turned holding by torrential rain that only arrived after racing on Saturday.

Read this next:

'I always scream like that watching Alpinista - I'm very much all in' (£)

Racing Post Live is your ultimate racing watchalong every Saturday and during major festivals. Our experts offer uninterrupted tips, analysis and reactions to the ITV action. Subscribe to the Racing Post YouTube channel here and never miss a minute