Who will win the 2020 Investec Derby based on previous trends?

The Investec Derby, which takes places live on ITV at 4.55pm on Saturday, is a unique test and whoever triumphs at Epsom this year will need to fufil a set of criteria. Here we look at which factors have proved useful to finding the winner of the Derby, based on the last ten races

Winning form

There has been a reasonable emphasis on a winning performance before the Derby, with six of the last ten winners successful on their previous outing.

The four who did not win their final start before the Derby finished second or third, including Australia and Masar, both third in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

English King: won the Lingfield Derby TrialCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

In this year's field, nine of the runners won their previous start, with English King, Kameko and Russian Emperor among those meeting the criterion. A further three runners finished second or third on their last outing, but Ryan Moore's pick Mogul was only fourth in the King Edward VII Stakes.

Distance

Seven of the last ten Derby winners had winning or placed form over a mile and two furlongs or further, stretching as far as 1m4½f in the Chester Vase.

The other three Derby winners all came straight from the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and had not competed over further than a mile, a similar scenario to that facing Kameko on Saturday.

Investec Derby card and betting

English King, Pyledriver and Khalifa Sat have all won over a mile and three furlongs or further.

Form

Derby winners tend to peak at the optimum time, a view backed up by eight of the last ten winners producing the best performance of their career on Racing Post Ratings (RPR) on their final start before their Classic date at Epsom.

Anthony Van Dyck was the anomaly in that he produced his best RPR as a two-year-old in the National Stakes, with his Lingfield Derby trial victory only earning a rating of 108.

Seven of the previous ten winners had recorded an RPR of 118 or better – Kameko is the only one to surpass that figure this year with his 2,000 Guineas win rated 121.

With the RPR bar set a little lower at 112, nine of the last ten winners could have been found, but only English King (113) and Vatican City (113) join Kameko in beating that figure. Russian Emperor (111) is next best.

Sire

Six of the last ten Derby winners have been sired by a previous winner of the race, with three – Anthony Van Dyck, Australia and Ruler Of The World – sired by 2001 winner Galileo.

Galileo: 2001 winner has produced three Derby winners in the last ten yearsCredit: Patrick McCann

That number becomes eight out of ten if you include every winner sired by a horse who won over a mile and a half during their racing career, as Montjeu produced back-to-back winners Pour Moi and Camelot and already had a proven record of siring Derby winners before the start of the decade courtesy of Motivator and Authorized.

Workforce (King's Best) and Golden Horn (Cape Cross) were the exceptions, with both of their sires winning over no further than a mile. However, once again, Cape Cross had proven he could sire Derby winners through the performances of the tremendous Sea The Stars.

Nine of this year's field are sired by previous Derby winners, with all bar Mythical of Aidan O'Brien's six runners sired by Galileo. Derby winners Camelot (English King and Mythical), Australia (Mohican Heights) and Golden Horn (Gold Maze) are also represented.

Other factors

Much will be made of the draw, with none of the last ten winners drawn lower than Camelot was in stall five, and he appeared in an unusually small field of nine. Oath was the last winner from stall one in 1999, which is the berth from which ante-post favourite English King will break, with the highly regarded Mogul next to him in two.

Experience is also a useful commodity, with all bar Ruler Of The World in the last ten winners making their debuts as a two-year-old, although Masar was the only one to have his first start before the previous year's Irish Derby meeting.

No winner in the last decade has had fewer than two runs, with eight having three or more and the last two, perhaps surprisingly, running eight times before their Derby win.

Final verdict

Kameko clearly sets the standard in the form book, but there are question marks about his stamina – his sire did win over a mile and a half but his progeny are unproven over the tough Derby test.

English King ticks plenty of boxes but stall number one is a concern, albeit not making it an impossible mission. Similar concerns could be passed to Mogul, whose last run was also not good enough, so Russian Emperor looks the most solid prospect of the market leaders.

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