'You'd be mad to rule him out' - David Jennings and Paul Kealy answer your Cheltenham Festival questions

Top tipsters David Jennings and Paul Kealy answered your Cheltenham Festival questions in a special Q&A last week – and the article is now free to read.

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Will the Irish have total domination again this year or do you think it will be closer? Ian Bennett

David The likes of the Triumph Hurdle and Mares' Chase are absolute certainties to go to Ireland, but the hosts could have a decent opening day again and I would fancy them to scrape into double figures. I'll go for 17-11 to Ireland.

Paul They're obviously going to have the most winners but I reckon it'll be tight until the final day, when they'll pull nicely clear as usual. It was only 11-10 after three days last year, but then Ireland won all seven on the Friday, and in the last three years it's 19-2 on the final day.

After all the preview nights you boys have done, what has been the strongest bit of information about a particular horse you've heard and will you be backing them? Alan Smith

David Appreciate It has been working like a demon in Closutton all season and that's why he was such a warm order for the Irish Arkle. If he brings his homework to the track, he's going to give Mighty Potter a real fright in the Turners. If you back him each-way, surely the place part of the bet is the worst you'll get back.

Paul I've heard Galvin has been having regular visits to the cross-country track and has loved it. I doubt I'll bet, though.

What are your thoughts on the Supreme? I'm all over Il Etait Temps and I think the price is mismatched compared with the favourite on their last meeting. I'm also tied in on some large doubles with Banbridge in the Turners. Jason Evanson

David Nice work, Jason. If you've done an each-way double I think you'll collect on the place part of both legs. I think Marine Nationale is the fastest horse in the Supreme, so he'll do for me.

Paul Absolutely agree on the price difference, but Il Etait Temps has been worryingly weak in the market over the last few days. In any case I'm not convinced there's a standout from Ireland and, when the extra places are offered on the day, I'll be backing Tahmuras and Rare Edition. I love Banbridge if it's not soft.

Will hold-up tactics make the difference for Facile Vega to win the Supreme? Nick Sreevalsan

David I'm not so sure, Nick. I couldn't contemplate backing him after what happened last time. That said, at least we should get to find out who the real Facile Vega is.

Paul They might but I couldn't touch him at the price after the last run.

Have you ever heard a more openly confident trainer than Barry Connell when it comes to Marine Nationale? But is he being overconfident? David Heffer

David No, I loved it. I remember ringing Barry before the Royal Bond and he was similarly confident. He was right too. I have a feeling Marine Nationale must be a bit of a freak at home. I'd imagine he'll drift on the day but I can see him running a huge race.

Paul He's shrewd enough for sure, but he has always said Marine Nationale would be better on better ground, so I doubt the change in the weather has been welcome. The form has not exactly worked out great either.

Would your confidence be blunted after one poor run? I'm a big fan of Jonbon and his lacklustre display last time made no difference to me – in fact, I thought it was the wake-up call he needed. Kirk Lambert

David I agree, Kirk. Calico just caught Aidan Coleman by surprise. You don't tend to get racing as early as that at Warwick. That mid-race madness might have made a man out of Jonbon. I've been against him all season but the closer the race gets, the more I think he'll win.

Paul I tend to be quite forgiving generally, but it all depends on the price. For instance, Facile Vega probably was too big at 6-1 after his defeat, but I wouldn't touch him now he's back to 2-1. Jonbon's run wasn't that bad anyway and he was reportedly only half-fit.

Surely the Arkle is more than just a two-horse race – Dysart Dynamo will be far better suited by the tighter track and shorter trip at Cheltenham. Do you think he has a chance? Tom Gilbert

David Maybe so, but I'm in the Jonbon camp now after laughing at those in the same camp for months. I've been converted.

Paul Yes, I think Dysart Dynamo has an excellent chance as his jumping has been electric over fences. He's going to have pace pressure, though, so it all depends on whether he does too much too soon again.

State Man: takes on Constitution Hill at Cheltenham on TuesdayCredit: Patrick McCann

How should State Man be ridden to have the best chance of toppling Constitution Hill? Darren Howells

David No matter where Constitution Hill is, I think Paul Townend will be within a length of him. The aim would be for State Man to be upsides turning in and then find out who the best horse is from that point on. I have a feeling I know the answer already, though.

Paul By starting from the second hurdle while Constitution Hill starts at the first.

Has Oscar Elite been given a great chance in the Ultima with a weight of 10st 12lb? Surely he must have a massive chance. Andy Ritchie

David He does indeed. He traded at a low of 1.34 in running on Betfair in last year's race and that was from 4lb out of the handicap because Frodon ran. He's only 1lb higher this year, but I slightly prefer Happygolucky, He was second in the race two years ago and remains an unexposed staying chaser with a big chance in the Grand National. I'm hoping he might take this en route.

Paul He ran well in the race last year, so you wouldn't rule it out, although the Reynoldstown he won last time was desperately weak. I reckon there'll be a few better handicapped.

Is there one standout piece of form you're looking at, like when Imperial Aura and Simply The Betts both won at the 2020 festival having met on Trials day? Kevin Price

David The Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November could be the key to the Ultima. Runner-up Into Overdrive and Happygolucky in third chased L'Homme Presse all the way up the straight and both are big players on Tuesday. With an 8lb turnaround in the weights, I'd be hoping Happygolucky can reverse the form too.

Paul I really like the Pertemps qualifier won by Shoot First at Cheltenham in October. Shoot First has since been ruled out but the third and fourth come straight here after it, while runner-up Botox Has won a big handicap at Haydock next time. An Tailliur and Salvador Ziggy will all be in my exacta and trifecta perms.

What's your best bet in the Grade 1 races at double-figure prices? William Abey

David Sandor Clegane in the Albert Bartlett. He got very warm before the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival and the way the race panned out didn't suit him. He got no cover and lacked the tactical speed of Good Land. You'll see a different horse on Friday.

Paul I think Conflated is too big each-way for the Gold Cup.

Thyme Hill: a likely player in the Brown Advisory according to Paul KealyCredit: Edward Whitaker

I think Thyme Hill has been an unlucky horse in general and surely it'll be his turn in the Brown Advisory. What are your thoughts? Sean McCanny

David I think so too, Sean. I don't think he got the credit he deserved for his win at Kempton at Christmas. That track shouldn't have suited him and he bolted up. The race may have fell apart but he was the winner at all stages of the race.

Paul There certainly aren't many who deserve a festival win as much as he does. If his jumping holds up, he's definitely going to be a player.

Is Luccia a banker in the mares' novice hurdle? Stephen Harris

David Yes. If she turns up at the top of her game I don't think anything will get near her. She's special and it isn't a special race.

Paul I originally thought so, but having watched her Exeter run again I'm a little worried about her jumping. She seemed to want an extra step to right herself at every hurdle and I'm not sure she'll get away with that in a big field. It's always a rough race.

I really fancy Conflated for the Gold Cup. What are your thoughts? Nick Bowker

David He's probably a shade overpriced. At no stage of the Savills Chase did he look in any danger and he seems more mature mentally now. His jumping is solid and he's definitely a player. It's a red-hot Gold Cup, though, and I can't see him beating Galopin Des Champs.

Paul In his last three runs over 3m-plus on left-handed tracks he's won an Irish Gold Cup and a Savills easily and been a strong-finishing second to Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree after a heavy fall in the Ryanair. Yeah, he's got a big chance.

What’s your biggest bet of the week? Mine is So Scottish in the Plate. Martin Day

David Walking On Air in the Pertemps Final. I think he's the best-handicapped horse of the week and how he has managed to escape with just a 5lb rise for his Exeter qualifier win is beyond me. I think he's considerably better than a 138-rated horse and his pedigree suggests 3m will bring out the best in him.

Paul I tend to chip away at big prices rather than smash one at the head of the market, so I can't say I've had a chunk on anything. An Tailliur and Camprond are probably my best results.

Do you have any outsiders for me? John O'Neill

David Metamorpheus in the Boodles. I like his jumping and he's completely unexposed. He ran in the key trial for the race at Naas too.

Paul Rare Edition in the Supreme and Elixir De Nutz in the Grand Annual.

Flooring Porter: can he land his third Stayers' Hurdle on Thursday?Credit: Edward Whitaker

Do you think Flooring Porter can win his third Stayers' Hurdle? The field looks no stronger to me than the last two years and he looks great value. Steve Reddish

David Sorry, Steve, it looks a lot stronger to me. Blazing Khal? Teahupoo? A new and improved Home By The Lee? I think Flooring Porter will need a career-best to win it and I can't see that happening. Gavin Cromwell has performed heroics to get a quirky horse like him to win it twice but it would be an outrageous achievement to get him to win it for a third time. I just can't see it.

Paul There's every chance he can do it again as he won very easily in the past two years. You'd be mad to rule him out.

Which trainer do you think will break their festival maiden and with which horse? Peter Lansdown

David Barry Connell with Marine Nationale. He's already a festival-winning owner and I think he might train his first winner in the first race of the week.

Paul Hopefully Charlie Longsdon with Rare Edition.

If Bravesmangame were trained by Willie Mullins, I think he'd nearly be vying for Gold Cup favouritism. Am I delusional or just simply clever? Nigel Donovan

David Well, Paul Nicholls is hardly David Jennings, is he? He's won the race four times already and I don't think Bravemansgame would be any bigger or shorter were he trained by Willie Mullins. This is an improved contender who looks like he'll stay the trip. He's got a squeak, for sure.

Paul I'm not sure he would be. It’s just people seem to think he's not a Cheltenham horse based on one run in the Ballymore, when he was third favourite and finished third. On form he certainly deserves more respect.

I've backed A Plus Tard at 12-1 for the Gold Cup after his defeat in the Betfair Chase. If Henry de Bromhead gets him back, surely he's a massive player? Lee Wainwright 

David Absolutely, Lee. If Henry has him back, he's the one to beat. That 'if' is a big one, though. Being pulled up in a Betfair Chase is hardly the ideal preparation for a Gold Cup, is it?

Paul There's no doubt last year's Gold Cup win represents the best form and if he does come back he'll be hard to beat. That's a dreadful preparation for a Gold Cup, though, and if the yard is quiet early in the week he's going to take a massive walk in the market.

Can you give us your best Cheltenham Lucky 15? Craig Hemmings

David Walking On Air in the Pertemps Final, Might I in the Martin Pipe, Edwardstone in the Champion Chase and Brandy Love in the Mares' Hurdle.

Paul An Tailliur in the Pertemps, Elixir De Nutz in the Grand Annual, Nassalam in the Ultima and Bad in the Boodles.

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