Paul Kealy's guide to the favourites at the Cheltenham Festival
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There has been talk of this year's Cheltenham Festival being one of the most open for a few years as there are just two odds-on shots.
However, there are still around 20 horses on offer at 5-2 or shorter for their chosen assignments.
We know not all of them are going to win as just 22 of the last 40 odds-on shots in the past ten years have done so, but these are the ones who are going to make or break the festival for many, so here are my brief views on the lot.
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Facile Vega
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)
Went out to a top price of 6-1 after his DRF flop, but is back to around 2-1 now. So what has happened since? Nothing, other than the festival has got closer. The 6-1 was doubtless an overreaction but he's heading towards a silly price again now. Apart from him, every horse who ran in last season's Champion Bumper to try Graded company has been stuffed, and only five Supreme winners since 1994 have failed to win their preps for Cheltenham. They went off at 12-1, 20-1, 20-1, 25-1 and 50-1. He has to be taken on.
El Fabiolo & Jonbon
Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase (2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)
Almost everyone seems to think this is a match between the pair, but Jonbon's form doesn't look quite as strong as it did earlier in the season and I've always thought he wanted further than two miles. El Fabiolo was great at Leopardstown but he got in too close to a couple and thumped the fourth-last. Leopardstown, with 11 fences over 2m1f, is more of a galloping test than a jumping one, and he'll do well to get away with that at Cheltenham, where there are 13 fences over a shade more than a furlong shorter. I think he's the most talented of the pair and will win if he gets his jumping right, but I've backed Dysart Dynamo each-way as the race looks sure to cut up and this track might just suit him a lot better if Danny Mullins can hold on to him a little for the first mile. I don't fancy Jonbon at all.
Constitution Hill
Unibet Champion Hurdle (3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)
The betting is on the distance. Move on.
Honeysuckle
Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)
There can't be anyone left who doesn't think she's on the downgrade as she's a much bigger price to win the Mares' than she was to win the Champion last year. It does happen and nobody can take anything away from what she has done in her career. She's still good, but how good? My guess is not good enough and that whichever of Epatante or Marie's Rock runs will beat her, while if the ground does get soft on day one Love Envoi comes right into it.
Gaillard Du Mesnil
National Hunt Novices' Chase (5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)
Has the best form but doesn't exactly have the winning habit, as he has just a sole success from eight chase starts. Five of them have come in Grade 1 company, though, and this would be a drop in class. I wouldn't necessarily lay him, but I do find it fairly easy to back against horses at that sort of price with that sort of win record and Chemical Energy is my pick.
Impaire Et Passe
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15)
Has displaced Hermes Allen as favourite recently and I feel Sod's Law is coming into play. Last year I backed the Supreme winner for the Ballymore, and this year I have 14-1 about Impaire Et Passe for the Supreme. I'm good at this ante-post lark! He has looked a really slick hurdler with a change of gear and could be a star, but I doubt anyone would dispute that both Hermes Allen and Gaelic Warrior have better form going into the race. I'm worried about Gaelic Warrior's tendency to jump right – he couldn't beat Brazil receiving 8lb here last year and is now rated 11lb higher than him – so Hermes Allen, whose Challow form has worked out so well, is the one for me.
Edwardstone & Energumene
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15)
I wouldn't be surprised if they finished in the first two, but by the same token I'm not sure I'd have the pair that far clear given they were both beaten last time out. On quick ground I wouldn't fancy Energumene at all, and while Edwardstone probably should have won the Clarence House, he didn't, and that made it three losses from his last four. Gentleman De Mee, who has a verdict over Edwardstone to his name and thumped Blue Lord at Leopardstown, is my choice unless it gets deep.
Delta Work & Galvin
Cross Country Chase (4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15)
I don't really care because this is the most boring race of the week and it now has the habit of taking Grade 1 horses out of Grade 1 races for a celebratory stroll. Galvin was favourite for last year's Gold Cup for God's sake and was odds-on for a Grade 1 just two starts ago, while Delta Work has won six Grade 1s. I'll take the younger legs of Galvin, but this should be a handicap or should be booted into touch.
Mighty Potter
Turners Novices' Chase (1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)
I like everything about him apart from the fact he travelled over badly last year (first time he has travelled), ran through a rail on the way to the start and had to be checked by the vet, and then jumped terribly. It may be a one-off and he has the best form, but on decent ground I'd be a big fan of Banbridge, who is 2-2 at the track.
Shishkin
Ryanair Chase (2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)
There are seemingly some who think he might bounce after his runaway Ascot Chase win, but it's not as if he had been off the track for ages. He had a legitimate excuse in last season's Champion Chase and had looked to many like he needed a step up in trip before his Tingle Creek run. Most of his likely rivals would do well even to match that effort at two miles, and I can't see any reason to oppose him.
Luccia
Mares' Novices' Hurdle (4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)
Has looked a bit special every time she has run, but having watched the replay of her Exeter run a few times I've got this nagging doubt that her jumping might catch her out in a big field, which this race invariably attracts. She seemed to want to put herself right by taking an extra step going into almost every hurdle and, while it's all right doing that when there's plenty of room and you're plodding around against inferior rivals, it will be a different ball game at Cheltenham.
Bloody Destiny & Lossiemouth
JCB Triumph Hurdle (1.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17)
Both very talented, but it's hard to pick between them and Paul Townend has a tough choice to make. Lossiemouth was clearly unlucky at Leopardstown and I'd be pretty sure she'll reverse the form with Gala Marceau. Blood Destiny hasn't really been tested and he has a bit to learn about jumping, but it's in his favour that there are only a couple of hurdles in the last mile. I just favour Lossiemouth, but I found it hard enough too.
Galopin Des Champs
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17)
The most exciting staying chaser in training, but he's at least a little bit priced up on that fact. We know his seasonal debut victim Fakir D'Oudairies has been badly out of form this term and you'd imagine a fair few of these would fancy their chances of beating Fury Road by eight lengths. He can obviously win, and may well prove best by a long way, but this year's Gold Cup is full of young horses coming into the race off the back of career-best efforts and are still on the up themselves (not to mention A Plus Tard, who still has the best form by some way on last year's win), so I'm inclined to look elsewhere. Conflated is the choice now, but I'd love to see Bravemansgame do it.
Vaucelet
St. James's Place Festival Hunters' Chase (4.10 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17)
Ferns Lock is the better horse on form, but for a fair while now his trainer David Christie has talked about missing this, with stablemate Vaucelet nominated as his number one. I'll take his word for it, but I'm no expert on hunter chases. There will be a big shake-up in the market if Christie changes his mind.
Allegorie De Vassy & Impervious
Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase (4.50 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17)
Another race considered a match by many, but Allegorie De Vassy, who has yet to run left-handed for Willie Mullins, jumped markedly right on her last start at Thurles and that rings alarm bells. She definitely jumped to her right over hurdles at Auteuil. Impervious has looked very good, but she might be ground-dependent, and in any case I reckon Jeremys Flame's easy win over the talented Zambella at Huntingdon gives her a serious shot.
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Published on 10 March 2023inCheltenham Festival
Last updated 10:09, 10 March 2023
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