How many Cheltenham Festival winners will Nicky Henderson have? Assessing his key contenders

Oh Nicky you're so fine, you're so fine you blow my mind hey Nicky, hey Nicky! The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is only 20 days away, and if you believe all the hype another week of Irish dominance awaits us at Prestbury Park. But not if the battalions of Seven Barrows have anything to do with it. Nicky Henderson has trained 72 festival winners, a figure only bettered by Willie Mullins (88).

While Mullins should extend his lead next month, Henderson looks sure to add to his own tally and is armed with a typically formidable string – including perhaps the most exciting horse in training. Here we assess his big Cheltenham chances . . .

Nicky Henderson's Cheltenham heavyweights

Constitution Hill

Champion Hurdle (3.30, March 14)

Odds: 1-3

Every sport needs a champion who transcends boundaries and comes on to the wider public's radar  – this is Constitution Hill's chance to be racing's superstar. Ever since he romped to victory in last year's Supreme, all roads have led to the Champion Hurdle, and for 12 months the question on most people's lips hasn't been will he win, but by how far.

His preparation has been exemplary, with Grade 1 victories at Newcastle and Kempton secured by a combined 29 lengths – now, it's time for the acid test. The emergence of State Man as the best two-mile hurdler in Ireland has offset the decline of the great Honeysuckle and means Constitution Hill will face the biggest challenge of his career. If he's as good as he has looked, he should still have too much for Willie Mullins' rising star.

What Henderson says: "His whole mind game is absolutely brilliant. Nothing — not even the press — can frighten him! His racing brain is brilliant and you could go three miles with him because you just switch him off and he goes to sleep. You then wait until you get to the right moment and Nico [de Boinville] presses the button and it works."

Chance of a Henderson winner: He's not much of a betting prospect at 1-3 – although he is likely to be a staple of many festival accumulators – so it's time to sit back and enjoy the ride. A clash with State Man could be one for the ages but he is as close to a banker as Henderson will have across the week.

Star rating: 5/5

Constitution Hill21:55 Cheltenham

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Shishkin: bounced back to form at AscotCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Shishkin

Ryanair Chase (2.50, March 16)

Odds: 11-10

There are few finer sights in sport than seeing a champion drag themselves off the canvas, silence any doubters and prove they still have the magic of old. Shishkin seemed to have lost his way after the Champion Chase last year, with injuries and a disappointing reappearance in the Tingle Creek suggesting the flame had started to dim.

Then came the Ascot Chase, and a scintillating return to form. A step up in trip to 2m5f seemed to be the key to unlock Shishkin's talent again and he cruised around before finishing in style. He was quickly installed as favourite for the Ryanair, with many wondering if he could be a Gold Cup horse.

What Henderson says: "The nicest way to do it would be to go Ryanair and then there's four weeks this year between Cheltenham and Aintree, so it would be possible you could try him over three miles at Aintree. Then we'd know where to go next season. That would be my long-term and only idea that I could give you."

Chance of a Henderson winner: With the absence of Allaho, Shishkin now looks a worthy favourite for the Ryanair. If he can reproduce his Ascot performance then he should prove a popular winner. Gold Cup next season? Maybe, but let's enjoy the show in March first.

Star rating: 4/5

Shishkin21:55 Cheltenham

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Luccia

Mares' Novices' Hurdle (4.50, March 16)

Odds: 13-8

Luccia is a warm favourite for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle, although there must be a serious temptation to throw her into a wide open Supreme. Her two victories over hurdles have been emphatic, the most recent an 11-length romp at Exeter on February 12 after she missed the Tolworth due to an unsatisfactory scope. Henderson might opt to play it with a straight bat and go for the easier race on paper, but wherever she goes it is going to be exciting.

What Henderson says: "She ought to run in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle, but she was impressive at Exeter on Sunday. Nico [de Boinville] is tempted to go for the Supreme, but the betting tells you what you have to do, surely? I don't know and don't have to decide now. I thought it was ambitious putting her in the Supreme and I'd be in favour of the Mares', but Paul [Sandy, owner] and I will have a chat closer to the time."

Chance of a Henderson winner: As the betting and her trainer have suggested, Luccia's chances would be boosted if she is sent for the Mares' rather than the Supreme. If she lines up in the latter however, she will still be a serious contender.

Star rating: 4/5

Luccia21:55 Cheltenham

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Jonbon

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2.10, March 14)

Odds: 13-8

It was only his freak of a stablemate Constitution Hill who stopped Jonbon emulating his big brother Douvan by landing the Supreme last season. Now he looks to follow in his esteemed sibling's footsteps by returning to win the Arkle a year later. Jonbon's transition to chasing has been relatively smooth if not seamless, and he has three wins from three attempts over the bigger obstacles.

His last appearance came in a match race at Warwick, where he was made to graft for victory over the Dan Skelton-trained Calico. That performance, combined with El Fabiolo's excellent showing in the Irish Arkle, has seen Jonbon lose favouritism for Cheltenham – but it would be churlish to knock his festival hopes based on one outing in strange circumstances.

What Henderson says: "It wasn't pretty to watch [the Kingmaker at Warwick], in fact it was bloody awful because it scared the living daylights out of you, but he jumped well and won nicely, as he ought to have done. We look at it like it was a good wake-up call for him and he will be sharper for it. AP [McCoy] was at Warwick and comes here a lot and he said one or two people commented how well he looked, but he probably looked too well and I think he needed it a bit more than we anticipated."

Chance of a Henderson winner: El Fabiolo was outstanding at Leopardstown and has clearly progressed massively since his narrow defeat to Jonbon at Aintree last year. But Jonbon is improving too, and his credentials look rock-solid. A heavyweight match-up, this could prove to be one of the clashes of the festival.

Star rating: 4/5

Jonbon21:55 Cheltenham

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Epatante

Champion Hurdle (3.30, March 14)
Mares' Hurdle (4.10, March 14)

Odds: 20-1 (Champion), 7-2 (Mares')

The wonder mare would be three from three for the season if she hadn't had to face Constitution Hill in her first two outings, but she picked up the win she deserved in the Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle at Doncaster in January. She holds entries for both the Champion Hurdle and the Mares' Hurdle. While it is improbable she would regain her Champion crown from 2020, the Mares' is also a very competitive race in which she would hold major claims, but she would potentially have to take on Honeysuckle and stablemate Marie's Rock.

What Henderson says: "We don't know about her race yet and will keep an eye on the weather and Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. He's got to get there and four weeks is a long time – a week is a long time in a horse's life. She did prove at Aintree last year she stayed two and a half miles very well and it was great to see her win easily at Doncaster. I know she beat nothing, but she showed what Constitution Hill has been beating."

Chance of a Henderson winner: Epatante's only realistic hope of a second festival win would come in the Mares' Hurdle, but even then her old adversary Honeysuckle could prove a very tough nut to crack once again.

Star rating: 3/5

Epatante21:55 Cheltenham

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Marie's Rock: set for the Mares' or Stayers'Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Marie's Rock

Mares' Hurdle (4.10, March 14)
Stayers' Hurdle (3.30, March 16)

Odds: 3-1 (Mares'), 9-1 (Stayers')

Another of Henderson's star mares who has two options, last year's Mares' Hurdle winner could bid to retain her crown or enter unknown territory in the Stayers'. Her last performance was jaw-droppingly good, as she won the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham by six lengths with Dashel Drasher and stablemate First Street unable to lay a glove on her. The Relkeel win, and the way she came home, was enough to suggest a step up in trip to three miles wouldn't be an issue. Both races are highly competitive and look wide open – but she'd have a great chance in either.

What Henderson says: "She's in very good form, but there is a question and it's possible she could move up and run in the Stayers'. Tom Palin of Middleham Park and I have discussed it and won't make a decision in the near future. We'll wait and see. Blazing Khal won on Sunday and there's Teahupoo in the Stayers' as well. He looks the best I've seen and you've got to respect dear old Paisley Park, but there's no standout."

Chance of a Henderson winner: With Epatante and Honeysuckle getting older, she would be many people's idea of the Mares' winner. The Stayers' would potentially be tougher and involves a step into the unknown, but her course form suggests she could be up to it.

Star rating: 3/5

Marie's Rock21:55 Cheltenham

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Marie's Rock21:55 Cheltenham

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The best of the rest

As well as being well equipped for many of the Graded races, Henderson looks to have a great chance in a lot of the festival handicaps, especially in the Pertemps in which the trainer has a strong hand.

Walking On Air thrust himself into contention with a comfortable victory at Exeter earlier this month in a qualifier, joining Call Me Lord, Captain Morgs and royal runner Steal A March in the 3m race, while last year's third Mill Green also booked his place by placing at Haydock a week later.

While First Street may be an outsider for the Champion Hurdle after defeats outside of handicaps the last twice, he's got to have a chance if lining up for the County Hurdle on the strength of his reappearance victory when shouldering top weight in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury.

Balco Coastal ran the unbeaten Gerri Colombe close in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase on his last start after bolting up in a Kempton handicap, and he holds obvious claims in the Turners Novices' Chase at the festival, with his conqueror heading for the Brown Advisory for which he's favourite.

Henderson also has a live chance in the National Hunt Chase with Grade 2 Towton Novices' Chase winner City Chief, who defeated the highly regarded O'Toole by five lengths at Wetherby, and Kim Muir runner-up Mister Coffey also holds an entry.

The dark horse is Next Destination, who hasn't been seen finishing second to Galvin in the National Hunt Chase at the 2021 festival and has joined Henderson from Paul Nicholls.

He holds entries in the Ultima, the Plate and the Kim Muir over fences and, having been competitive in Graded races as a novice, it will be interesting if he makes his stable debut in a festival handicap after being dropped 8lb for his absence.

The verdict: how many winners will he have this year?

By Harry Wilson, tipster

Constitution Hill looks blatantly obvious if nothing drastic happens, Shishkin looks open to so much improvement – which is a scary thought – now tackling a longer trip and Luccia has been a cut above her opposition this season, so the Champion Hurdle, Ryanair and Mares' Novices' look primed for a Henderson winner.

Add to the mix the unbeaten Jonbon, whose only defeat came at the hooves of Constitution Hill and who would still be favourite for the Arkle had he won his last start more impressively, it looks like being a fruitful festival for the Lambourn trainer.

It's hard not to include Epatante into any conversations either. She would have gone so close to beating Honeysuckle in last year's Champion Hurdle had she not made a mistake at the last and her powers are definitely not declining, so alongside Marie's Rock, there's every chance the Mares' Hurdle is his to take too.

I don't think many would disagree with Henderson looking likely to win three races – as a minimum – at this year's Cheltenham Festival and the trainer looks Britain's leading chance of thwarting the Irish dominance of the Prestbury Cup.

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