Crunching the numbers on the draw for the Balmoral Handicap

The Balmoral Handicap is a relatively new race on Qipco British Champions Day. There have been only six editions since its inception in 2014 and 27 ran in the inaugural running.

Since then, the race has been restricted to 20 runners and it’s probably worth focusing on just the last five runnings, when only 20 stalls were in use, for the draw analysis.

The stalls are numbered from one to 23 despite only 20 runners taking part each year. That’s because the three reserves are all given a draw too. In every race bar the 2018 running, when stall two would actually have been the inside stall (the horse drawn in stall one was originally a reserve), stalls one and 23 have been the stalls on either wing, with 23 being the 20th gate.

The accompanying graphic shows the three-stall rolling average for runners coming from each stall in every running of this race since it went to a maximum of 20 runners in 2015.

The sample size is small (99 horses), but generally speaking it has been disadvantageous to be drawn on either wing. There have been exceptions, the most notable being Yuften winning from stall one in 2016, but a draw in the teens (stalls 13-19) has been the ideal position.

However, it’s worth noting the three reserves this year are drawn in stalls 15, 18 and 19, and reserves in previous years would also have affected the results of those drawn in higher stalls.

So, rather than applying the figures strictly through numbers, it makes more sense to take a general view using the three-stall rolling average and that suggests middle-to-high might prove the ideal place from which to strike, but you don’t want to be in the highest three stalls.

Raaeq (stall five) and Tempus (six) head the overnight market and they are drawn next to each other. Mid-single figures is just about as good as you can do if you are drawn low.

What they say

Roger Varian, trainer of Prince Eiji
The race is likely to be run in very testing conditions, and that could suit him. It's a tough ask to win such a competitive race off a mark of 107, but he’s always worked well and a truly-run race at this trip at this level could be the making of him.

Roger Charlton, trainer of Blue Mist and Tempus
Tempus was unsuited to the undulations of Newmarket, but is a course and distance winner here. He's off his highest rating, but I'm hoping he's going to run well. Blue Mist also loves Ascot and he's drawn high which I think is probably the more favoured side. I'm expecting a big run.

Roger Charlton runs Blue Mist and Tempus in the Balmoral HandicapCredit: Edward Whitaker

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to Saeed Suhail, owner of Solid Stone
He goes there with a good chance. He’s been working well, and won for Hollie Doyle at Chelmsford. He should be there at the finish.

David Simcock, trainer of Raakib Alhawa
He had to be gelded as he was very much going the wrong way. He behaved very badly at Newbury last time so we just want to see what he's like on the racecourse before thinking about a winter campaign.

George Margarson, trainer of Ropey Guest
I don’t know if he’s drawn in the right place, but he’s near the right horses. He’s in really good form and has been saved for this race.

Angus Gold, racing manager to Hamdan Al Maktoum, owner of Raaeq
He won well last time at Ascot under a big weight on similar ground. I thought that was a high-class performance, and he’s a horse we’ve always held in some regard. He nearly died last winter after catching pneumonia, and we’ve been playing catch-up since. He has a very good chance.

Clive Cox, trainer of River Nymph
He’s really come to hand in his last two starts, and has shown a liking for this track. He goes up to a mile which is new territory for him, but seems in excellent form. I hope the ground is not too soft for him.

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