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Playing the percentages - the figures that matter at Glorious Goodwood

Mark Johnston: profitable to follow in juvenile races at Glorious Goodwood
Mark Johnston: profitable to follow in juvenile races at Glorious GoodwoodCredit: Getty Images

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Mark Johnston has trained a winner at every Glorious Goodwood this century. He is synonymous with success in the middle-distance staying races, but interestingly in recent seasons another area where he has regularly enjoyed success is in two-year-old races. His juvenile runners have accounted for five of his 20 winners since 2012, with those sent off shorter than 10-1 showing a £1 level-stakes profit of £13.33.

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Ryan Moore dealt a series of blows to bookmakers last season as eight of his nine (89 per cent) shortest-priced rides landed the spoils (+£9.98) including 7-4 shot Franklin D who was a well-backed winner of the Betfred Mile. Interestingly, despite more than a third of his rides winning, his mounts returned an overall loss to a £1
level-stake of £3.02. The betting proved to be a deadly accurate barometer to the chances of his rides. His biggest-priced winner was 5-2 and the 13 who were longer prices were all beaten.

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The 5f Group 2 King George Stakes run over Goodwood’s sharp and predominantly downhill sprint course is usually run at a frenetic pace so is often dominated by really quick sprinters with bags of natural speed. This would explain why, curiously, six of the last seven individual winners of this race had previously won a race on the speed-favouring sprint track at York. The exception is 2012 winner Ortensia, although 21 days after her Goodwood success she won York’s premier sprint, the Group 1 Nunthorpe.

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