Find the improvers others overlook for a decent crack at the Ten To Follow

Spotting the improvers that few others will have considered is what will make the difference in terms of winning the Tote Ten To Follow. Do not go overboard, though: your list needs to be built on a solid base and that means giving over most of it to established names who will be running either almost exclusively in bonus races, or in a lot of Grade 1s.

For that reason, your bankers have to be the Henry de Bromhead-trained pair of A Plus Tard and Honeysuckle. While I suspect the latter could well lose her Champion Hurdle crown to Constitution Hill, she ought to mop up in Ireland before then and the Irish Champion Hurdle is a bonus race. A Plus Tard is likely to run only three times, but could land a bonus race hat-trick in the Betfair Chase, Savills Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup.

You can enter the Tote Ten to Follow here

Nine of the 21 bonus races are staying chases and so horses for those races can take up three spots – or even four, if one is a handicapper. The three handicap chases on the bonus list are the Coral Gold Cup, Welsh National and Grand National. Given I have already backed Gericault Roque for two of those races (Newbury and Aintree), he is a sensible selection. That said, I would not be offended if you were to prefer Le Milos after he staked a strong claim for inclusion at Bangor on Wednesday. He is also mooted to have the Coral Gold Cup and Grand National as his targets.

The other out-and-out staying chaser on my list will be Ahoy Senor, at least partly because it is expected that he will have a more ambitious campaign than many of those with whom he shares a division. His Charlie Hall flop might mean he ends up on slightly fewer lists than would otherwise have been the case, too.

It could pay to disregard Ahoy Senor's Wetherby defeat as he is likely to be campaigned aggressively this seasonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Chasers over shorter distances look to largely choose themselves. Allaho could have both the King George and Ryanair in his sights while, if he vacates the belt to try his hand as a stayer, then Fakir D'Oudairies is the likeliest beneficiary on recent evidence. The Melling Chase, which he has won in each of the last two years, is a bonus race.

With the doubts over Shishkin following his Champion Chase flop, Energumene becomes the natural choice among the 2m chasers. The only real doubt is whether stablemate Chacun Pour Soi might be given the stage to himself in one or two of the Grade 1s over the winter. However, he is rising 11 and there is not really space for him on the list.

That leaves three spaces and it makes sense to include one staying hurdler given the Stayers' Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle both offer bonus points. The division looks a little stale and two-time Stayers' winner Flooring Porter is the logical choice.

My last two spots go to wildcards, who earn their place for very different reasons. State Man could be a Champion Hurdle contender, or he could move either up in trip or over fences, and all of his potential destinations are bonus races.

You would not have your life on Valsheda even running in a bonus race as he starts the season rated 127 but this is a staying chaser who I believe has a big prize in him. His form last season stacks up even though he was plainly gaining experience as much as anything else. He will run on the undercard at Cheltenham on Saturday as the first step in a hopefully fruitful season.

Remember that last year's top-scoring horse, Commander Of Fleet, made his points by popping up in good handicaps which were not bonus races. They are clearly harder to find, but horses like Commander Of Fleet and, hopefully, Valsheda can make a big difference in the Tote Ten To Follow.

Keith Melrose's Ten to Follow

A Plus Tard
Ahoy Senor
Allaho
Energumene
Fakir D'Oudairies
Flooring Porter
Gericault Roque
Honeysuckle
State Man
Valsheda

Create your stable here. £5/€5.50 per stable in the paid game. 60% of net prize pool to the winner with a minimum guarantee of £/€100,000 to the winner (see full terms for details of prize breakdown). Maximum one entry per person in the free game. Entries close at 11am on November 12, 2022. UK and ROI only. Full terms and conditions apply. 18+, begambleaware.org or dunlewey.org for Ireland.