Who will win the 2023 Betfair Chase at Haydock based on previous trends?

Keep it simple

Established stars dominate in a race not renowned for surprise outcomes.

Snoopy Loopy shocked just about everyone in 2008 when benefiting from the departure of Kauto Star and collecting at 33-1, but he is the only winner to have returned at double-figure odds. Protektorat was 15-2 last season, though he was still second favourite behind the odds-on A Plus Tard.

Snoopy Loopy is also the only winner not to have registered a top-two finish in Grade 1 company, a statistic that counts against Corach Rambler.

Proven form is therefore preferred to potential and the last ten winners all had a BHA mark of 160+.

Second-season chaser Lostintranslation is the only winner in the last decade shy of an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 176, a threshold that if strictly adhered to, reduces the shortlist to Bravemansgame (181) and Protektorat (178).

Surprisingly, when Haydock is renowned for its stamina-sapping nature, another cast-iron trend to have stood the test of time is the influence of form over shorter trips than 3m. This pattern could come into play again this year should conditions dry out through the course of the week.

Sixteen of the Betfair Chase’s 18 winners had won over at least 3m, and yet all bar one had won over 2m or 2m1f at some point in their careers. The exception was the inaugural winner Kingscliff who had a pointing background. This would bode well for Shishkin, who made his name over shorter distances, should connections decide to come here over his preferred Ascot assignment.

Bravemansgame: could have a fitness edge on his rivalsCredit: John Grossick

Fitness flaws?

Historically, horses who have had the benefit of a prep race have fared better than those without, and Bravemansgame could have an edge in fitness over his market rivals having contested the Charlie Hall Chase three weeks ago.

The Wetherby feature is one of the few suitable stepping stones to Haydock and, while ideally you need to have won that Grade 2 chase, Bravemansgame would surely have done so without his final-fence blunder.

Course clues

For all that Haydock is a flat track, it can be a law unto itself and not all horses take to the place. Course form usually counts for a lot in all its major chases. This venue has been renowned for producing course specialists over the years.

Last season’s winner Protektorat has nothing to prove on this count, while Bravemansgame and Royale Pagaille have won races at the Merseyside venue.

However, Corach Rambler will be making his first start at the track and is opposable on that alone.

Verdict

No trainer has won more Betfair Chases than Paul Nicholls and he can secure his seventh through Bravemansgame.

A prep race is preferred and, while you typically need to have won the Charlie Hall to be taken seriously, he was clearly an unfortunate loser at Wetherby. It’s also significant that in each of his last three campaigns, his RPR second time out was far superior to the one he produced on his reappearance.

During its short existence, this race has already produced four multiple winners and last year’s hero Protektorat is the clear second choice ahead of Shishkin, whose lack of course form is too great a negative to ignore and is also set to head to Ascot, according to trainer Nicky Henderson.

Bravemansgame15:00 Haydock

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Jky: Daryl Jacob Tnr: Paul Nicholls

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