Steve Palmer's Tour Championship predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Tour Championship at East Lake GC on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Friday

Best bets

Dustin Johnson
8pts 15-8 general
Sungjae Im
1pt each-way 100-1 Betfred

The truncated PGA Tour season draws to a close this week with the Tour Championship from East Lake, Georgia, and Dustin Johnson looks set to bank a fortune.

Johnson is in pole position in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning he gets to start the Tour Championship on ten under par, two shots ahead of his nearest rival. The handicap system in operation for the Stateside finale means some players have a ten-shot deficit to overcome over the four rounds of Atlanta action.

Whoever wins the Tour Championship will also lift the FedEx Cup and enjoy a $15m payday. Last year started a new era with the handicaps and the final first-round twoball of Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay struggled from the front. Johnson, though, seems likely to thrive at the head of affairs and could gallop away from the field.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Dustin Johnson 15-8

Punters assessing the 30-runner field must decide whether to have their bets in the market which includes the FedEx Cup handicaps (Tour Championship/FedEx Cup winner) or in the separate Tour Championship '72-hole strokeplay winner' betting which ignores the staggered start.

Those unafraid of short odds are advised to stick with the main market and trust Dustin Johnson to convert his lead into victory. The world number one has clicked into gear in spectacular fashion in the playoffs and will be relishing the chance to claim the FedEx Cup for the first time.

Johnson has failed to land the FedEx booty in the past, but he has never had a better opportunity than this - going to East Lake with his A-game and already two shots ahead. After a mesmerising frontrunning performance in The Northern Trust, where he romped to a 30-under-par total to triumph by 11 shots, there appears every chance that this experienced East Lake performer kicks clear.

Johnson followed his Northern Trust heroics with a playoff defeat in the BMW Championship, a tournament in which he grew stronger as the week wore on, and there was no shame from losing to a holed birdie putt by Jon Rahm from 66 feet. Johnson took that stunner in his normal fashion - a smile and a shrug of the shoulders - and this unflappable beast can overcome the setback.

The Friday start to the Tour Championship helps the recovery process - Monday is a bank holiday in the US - and Johnson knows he left Illinois last week with the prize he craved, the number one seeding for East Lake. He will be eager to bank the biggest cheque of his career and can gain immediate revenge on Rahm.

Johnson has competed at East Lake ten times, whereas Rahm has only three spins under his belt, with form figures of 7-11-13. That extra course knowledge, allied to the two-shot headstart, can prove decisive.

Johnson was clearly crocked for last year's edition, finishing last and having knee surgery shortly afterwards, so that result can be completely disregarded. The last time he teed up at East Lake healthy, he finished third in 2018, beaten by only Tiger Woods and Billy Horschel.

Johnson is fully fit and firing, boasting form figures of 2-1-2 having almost won the US PGA prior to the playoffs, and success on Monday would mean three victories in his last eight events. Having briefly parted company with Claude Harmon, DJ reunited with his long-time coach at the end of last year, and they have got his swing in majestic shape.

Every department of his game is purring and there has been a steely focus about Johnson. He has been taking longer over club selections and when reading putts. East Lake is a grinders' track, where avoiding disaster on the 12 par-fours and four par-threes is the key to success, and Johnson's rock-solid driving of late means he can protect his score.

Rahm seems by far the biggest danger and it is difficult to identify value options in the chasing pack. Justin Thomas, still without his usual caddie Jimmy Johnson, has gone off the boil since Memphis, Webb Simpson probably lacks the firepower to overhaul Johnson and Rahm from four behind, while Collin Morikawa is making his East Lake debut.

Next best bet

Sungjae Im 100-1

An each-way investment in Sungjae Im is also recommended. The gifted Korean youngster, who won the Honda Classic in the first week of March, has been generally poor post-lockdown, but ninth place in the Wyndham last month was encouraging and a progressive BMW Championship (77, 74, 72, 69) hints he may have found his game in time to be a factor at East Lake.

Im, who loves Bermuda greens, made a solid Tour Championship debut last year, finishing 15th, and from four under par, six shots off the pace, he is good enough to enter the equation. A magnificent Presidents Cup debut at Royal Melbourne in December showed what Im is capable of on firm, fast terrain, and East Lake is a layout made for his talents.

Players to note

Hideki Matsuyama
The Japanese star relied on a sharp short-game to contend in Illinois last week. With a more typical ball-striking performance, he could run into an East Lake place from four under par.

Bryson DeChambeau
The Californian has cooled after emerging from lockdown in fantastic nick, but is obviously capable of making a run from six shots behind.

Xander Schauffele
East Lake has been a happy hunting ground for the 2017 Tour Championship winner and he has been playing well, but he has a seven-shot deficit to overcome.

Joaquin Niemann
The Chilean finished third in the BMW last week and is hitting his ball well enough to make progress up the leaderboard from two under par.

East Lake course guide

Course East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
Prize money $46m ($15m to the winner)
Length 7,319 yards
Par 70
Field 30
Course records- 72 holes 257 Tiger Woods (2007) 18 holes 60 Zach Johnson (2007)

Course winners taking part Billy Horschel, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele

When to bet By 4.40pm on Friday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Friday

Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - BMW Championship 1 J Rahm (10-1), 2 D Johnson (8-1), T3 J Niemann (150-1), H Matsuyama (40-1), 5 T Finau (35-1), T6 J Kokrak (90-1), M Fitzpatrick (60-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview East Lake is the curtain-closer to the PGA Tour season, with the most successful performers of the year ending their Stateside campaign in the Tour Championship. East Lake has hosted this event in 1998, 2000, 2002 and from 2004 onwards. The famous course was designed by Tom Bendelow and Donald Ross, but Rees Jones took charge of a redesign in 1994 and at the end of 2007 (he switched all the greens from bentgrass to Bermuda). It is extremely long for a par-70 and a SubAir drainage system means firm, fast greens are almost certain, so scoring is never particularly low. There are only two par-fives – the sixth and the 18th – and the best 72-hole total in the last decade is 13 under par

Story of last year Rory McIlroy won the first Tour Championship under the new staggered-start format. The Northern Irishman started on five under par – five shots behind – and finished at 18 under par. That left him four shots ahead of Xander Schauffele. McIlroy and Schauffele were the lowest 72-hole scorers regardless of the handicaps

Weather forecast Hot and sunny for the first two days, before a cloudy Sunday, with the threat of a late thunderstorm. Light cloud on Monday. Calm throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The fairways are notoriously difficult to hit at East Lake, so accurate drivers should prosper. There are only two par-fives and no easy birdies, so players who like to grind out plenty of pars can flourish

Key attribute Accuracy

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