Tougher tests await Tottenham but Ange Postecoglou's front-foot approach is paying early dividends

The final three months of the 2022-23 season were dark days for Tottenham as, under three different managers, they limped to eighth place in the Premier League – their lowest finish since 2008-09. 

Spurs fans' anger was directed at the board and a season of transition appeared likely this term, especially after record goalscorer Harry Kane completed his summer move to Bayern Munich. 

However, new boss Ange Postecoglou has swiftly revitalised Spurs and they are second in the table heading into Sunday’s derby at Arsenal.

Postecoglou has focused on re-establishing a positive culture, in contrast to Antonio Conte, who was publicly throwing players under the bus by the end of his tenure.

The new boss seems to have the man-management skills to bind together the dressing room and rebuild the connection with the supporters, both of which were factors enabling Spurs to outperform their resources under Mauricio Pochettino.

Of course, their strong start to the season can't simply be down to good vibes. Under Conte, Spurs and their passive 3-4-3 formation were a bit of an outlier among top teams. That has all changed under Postecoglou with a fluid 4-2-3-1 allowing full-backs to invert into midfield and additional bodies to push forward to create a 2-3-5 in possession, looking to pin back opponents with more of the ball and aggressive pressing.

Despite frustrating supporters with their style last term, Tottenham's Premier League matches averaged 3.5 goals per game – the most in the division.

A lot of the angst stemmed from Spurs seemingly waiting to go behind before starting to play, and from their failure to exert the same control in matches as other top teams.

This season, however, Tottenham have had more possession than their opponents in all five games, averaging 60.6 per cent, up from 50 per cent last term, and that possession has come in more dangerous positions. 

'Field tilt' assesses the territorial dominance of teams by measuring the number of touches they have in the attacking third as a proportion of those they allow and Spurs have risen from 43.7 per cent (ranked 14th) to 63.8 per cent (ranked fifth).

That front-foot approach has led to them being ranked first for shots taken this term and they have already had ten or more shots on target in two of their matches, matching their total for the whole of last season.

Five games is too small a sample size to draw strong conclusions but, on most underlying numbers, Tottenham are around a top-five team, albeit helped by a set of early fixtures that ranks in the easiest five.

The accompanying table attempts to mitigate some of the schedule skew by taking Tottenham's four games against teams projected by spread-betting firms to finish 11th or lower and comparing it to their games against bottom-half sides last season.

Promisingly their +0.9 non-penalty expected goal difference per game is only fractionally below the record of Newcastle, who finished fourth, in those matches last term. 

Tottenham's record against last season's bottom-half teams and this season's projected bottom-half teams 

Data: FBref. Refers to matches against last season's bottom-half teams and the sides projected to finish in the bottom half this season according to Sporting Index: Brentford, Bournemouth, Burnley & Sheffield United.
Sample is insufficient to rank this season's data.

Tottenham needed every second of an epic stoppage-time period to beat Sheffield United last weekend but the shot count was 28-7 in their favour so it was no smash and grab. 

It was the third time Spurs had trailed in a match and, while comebacks demonstrate the resilience they have been accused of lacking in the past, they may find that better sides are less forgiving.

How they will fare against the top teams remains an unknown. They were well on top in the second half of their 2-0 win over Manchester United, thanks to a mid-game tactical tweak from Postecoglou, but on another day they could have been playing catch-up having been outshot 14-4 in the opening 35 minutes.

Opening up the game is the right way to go against inferior opposition but leaving space when you do not have a talent advantage against your opponents can be dangerous.

There almost certainly will be setbacks but Tottenham's new-found intent should mean they retain the backing of the fans. 

Postecoglou deserves credit for overseeing such a good start after the summer upheaval.

Harry Kane’s 30 Premier League goals last season represented 42 per cent of Tottenham's output and no team was more reliant on one player. This term, the goals are being spread around. 

Heung-Min Son leads the way with three of his side's 13 goals and, rather than banking on elite finishing, Spurs are maintaining output just by having more chances.

Those chances are often created by summer signing James Maddison, who has hit the ground running as the new orchestrator, leading the league in shot-creating actions and passes into the penalty box.

Holding midfielders who can shield the defence and receive the ball under pressure when building up from the back were in huge demand over the summer but the rejuvenated Yves Bissouma feels like a new signing for Spurs. 

Among central midfielders, Bissouma ranks second for tackles and first for interceptions. He is behind only Manchester City's Rodri for progressive distance carrying the ball and is ranked fifth for passes completed, making him invaluable to Postecoglou, who needs players with the bravery and technical ability to play through the opposition press.

Spurs have run a bit hot at both ends but, even if new keeper Guglielmo Vicario’s shot-stopping stats regress to the mean, he would represent a significant improvement on Hugo Lloris’s performances last term.

The one blot on Postecoglou's record is an EFL Cup exit on penalties at Fulham. A raft of changes that night perhaps suggest the squad is not packed with players capable of playing his way if called upon. 

However, like Newcastle last season, Tottenham's lack of European football means there should be fewer demands on the supporting cast anyway.

The schedule gets much tougher for Spurs with Arsenal and Liverpool next up and it will be easier to gauge their long-term prospects by the October international break. 

However, their form and style of play has energised Spurs fans, placing them at the heart of the race for Champions League places rather than on the periphery, as many had feared when Kane departed.

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