PartialLogo
UFC tips

UFC 236: Holloway v Poirier | Gastelum v Adesanya tips, odds & betting preview

Interim UFC lightweight & middleweight titles on the line in Atlanta

Max Holloway lands a jab on the bloody nose of Brian Ortega
Max Holloway lands a jab on the bloody nose of Brian OrtegaCredit: Vaughn Ridley

TV: BT Sport 1, from 3am Saturday night

Prelims from 1am

Two interim title fights headline another stacked card of MMA action at UFC 236 at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, with featherweight champion Max Holloway stepping up to lightweight for a rematch with Dustin Poirier, and exciting prospect Israel Adesanya taking on Kelvin Gastelum at middleweight.

Max Holloway v Dustin Poirier

Interim UFC lightweight title

Fight odds: 10-21 Holloway v 2-1 Poirier

Holloway was beaten by Poirier on his UFC debut in 2012 with a mounted triangle armbar when he was just 19 years old, but both fighters have improved significantly since.

Hawaiian Holloway has been on a rampage at 145lbs with a 13-fight win streak which led to him the UFC featherweight title. He has won his last four by TKO against former champions Anthony Pettis and Jose Aldo (twice) and a stunning stoppage of Brian Ortega, who lost by doctor's stoppage at the end of the fourth round.

Ortega was undefeated going into that fight but Holloway was unfazed, his 290 total significant strikes landed was a new UFC record, and the 134 significant strikes he smashed into Ortega in round four was the most landed any UFC fighter in a single round.

However, that was all at featherweight and he will make a 10lb jump to lightweight to face Poirier, who is also in hot form.

Poirier has been established at lightweight since 2014 and has won eight of nine since (plus one no contest). His last three wins have all been inside the distance with a submission of Anthony Pettis and TKOs of Justin Gaethje and former champ Eddie Alvarez.

His fights are always box office - his last four have all won Poirier Fight Of The Night and Performance Of The Night bonuses - and this one should be another thriller.

Both are capable of winning, but Holloway may have the edge in striking and movement, and his kicks could be a real issue for Poirier.

Poirier always starts fast and could give Holloway problems if he catches him early, especially if he manages to take him to the mat, but the Hawaiian's take-down defence is excellent and his relentless volume of striking could eventually break Poirier's spirit.

Take Holloway to win by KO or TKO at 6-4, and consider another bet on him winning in round four at 16-1.

Recommendations
M Holloway to win by KO, TKO or DQ
2pts 6-4 Betway
M Holloway to win in round four
1pt 16-1 bet365, Sky Bet

Kelvin Gastelum v Israel Adesanya

Interim UFC middleweight title

Fight odds: 13-8 Gastelum v 4-7 Adesanya

There are around 600 fighters on the UFC roster but only a handful have the superstar qualities of Israel Adesanya.

Known as 'The Last Stylebender', Adesanya takes inspiration from anime shows such as Avatar: The Last Airbender and Naruto, and martial arts movie legends Bruce Lee and Tony Jaa.

That would mean nothing if he couldn't back it up in the Octagon, but the Nigeria-born New Zealander has set the UFC on fire since his debut just over a year ago and is undefeated in MMA with a 16-0 record, building on an impressive background in kickboxing and boxing.

It's still early days though - Kelvin Gastelum could be the toughest test of his UFC career and Adesanya's ground skills are unproven.

Gastelum has a superb all-round skill set - he is an excellent wrestler and a jiu-jitsu black belt, as well as having solid stand-up and plenty of power in his fists.

At range Adesanya should hold all the aces and he will enjoy a significant height and reach advantage, but Gastelum has far more experience and is likely to want to close the distance, rough Stylebender up in the clinch and take him down if the opportunity presents itself. If Adesanya ends up on his back he will have a major problem.

Adesanya's unorthodox movement could bamboozle Gastelum and a victory for him on the scorecards at 15-8 makes plenty of appeal - he beat UFC legend Anderson Silva on points in his last fight.

But at this stage of his career there remains too many unknowns, while Gastelum seems to thrive when in the role of the underdog.

It may be harsh to say that Adesanya's odds are priced up on hype, but Gastelum looks good value for the upset.

Recommendation
K Gastelum
1pt 13-8 Sky Bet

Other main card fights and odds

  • Light heavyweight8-15 Eryk Anders v 7-4 Khalil Rountree Jr
  • Welterweight10-11 Alan Jouban v Evs Dwight Grant
  • Light heavyweightEvs Ovince Saint Preux v 10-11 Nikita Krylov

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport

author image
Racing Post Reporter

Published on inUFC tips

Last updated

iconCopy